Posted on by Colin Twiggs

There is No Off-Switch

In war, there is no substitute for victory. ~ General Douglas MacArthur

On 24 February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian officers reportedly packed their ceremonial uniforms for the victory parade in Kyiv, which was expected within weeks. However, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky refused the American offer of evacuation with the famous retort, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” More than four years and over a million casualties later, the Russians are no closer to that elusive victory parade.

The enemy gets a vote. And the longer they have to prepare, the less likely a quick victory becomes.

The Iranians have been preparing for a conflict with the US and Israel for decades. They may have received setbacks from the aerial bombardment and decapitation strikes on Iranian leadership, but they are not defeated.

When the U.S. military’s top general laid out the risks to President Trump of launching a major and extended attack on Iran, one of the issues he flagged was America’s stockpile of munitions.

Now that is being put to the test, as the U.S. races to destroy Iran’s missile and drone force before it runs out of interceptors to fend off Tehran’s retaliation, current and former officials and analysts say. (WSJ)

Allies in the Gulf already warn that they are running low on interceptors.

The US is “stonewalling” requests by some Gulf states to replenish their air defense interceptors as pressure mounts on them to join the US and Israel in their war on Iran, one western official and one former US official familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

At least one Gulf state that has come under attack from Iran asked US officials about replenishing supplies that have been depleted since the joint US-Israeli attack on Iran, but was brushed off, the former US official familiar with the discussions said. (MEE)

Pentagon officials are pressuring defense manufacturers to increase production.

WASHINGTON, March 3 (Reuters) – The Trump administration plans ​to meet with executives from the biggest U.S. defense contractors at the White House on Friday to discuss ‌accelerating weapons production, as the Pentagon works to replenish supplies after strikes on Iran and several other recent military efforts, five people familiar with the plan told Reuters.

Companies including Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) and Raytheon parent RTX (RTX.N), along with other key suppliers, have been invited to ​attend the meeting, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the discussions are private.

Israel is also running low.

Israel has concerns about its munitions supply as well. It is still low on Arrow 3 air-defense interceptors, another U.S. official says. Israel is also low on air-launched ballistic missiles, a weapon it used to take out Iranian missile launchers this summer and to attack Hamas leaders in Qatar last year, the official said. (WSJ)

However, US defense production is constrained by a shortage of critical materials, with China restricting exports of rare earths needed for military purposes.

Brent crude climbed to above $90 per barrel on Friday as the market anticipates shortages.

Brent Crude

Iran has built up vast munitions stockpiles that the US claims to be destroying.

Iran spent decades constructing underground bunkers to shield its vast missile arsenal from destruction, but US and Israeli aircraft are circling Iranian bases, targeting missile launchers. (WSJ)

Russia is already providing the Iranians with intelligence to help them target US and Israeli forces. Higher oil prices benefit Russia, strengthening its war economy.

Beijing, on the other hand, would suffer from higher oil prices and may negotiate with Iran to provide weapons and support in exchange for free passage of oil shipments to China.

Conclusion

The US is hoping that Iranian resistance will crumble before US weapons stockpiles are depleted. Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports will likely limit the US ability to replenish high-tech munitions.

In war, there is no off-switch.

Time is on the Iranian’s side. The longer they can prolong the conflict and restrict oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the greater the cost to the US and its allies.

Time is against the US. Failure to achieve a speedy resolution would ratchet up inflationary pressures in their economy. Their greatest vulnerability is the Treasury market, with soaring federal debt levels. Debt servicing costs already exceed defense spending. Higher inflation would worsen their predicament, raising long-term interest rates. A stock market crash would reduce tax receipts from lower capital gains, further increasing the budget deficit.

We should hope for a speedy resolution, but prepare for a protracted conflict.

Acknowledgments

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