Israel strikes first

Summary

• Israel struck nuclear facilities and military command structures in Iran
• The government declared a state of emergency in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from Iran
• US Secretary of State Rubio indicated that the US had been notified but was not involved in the strikes
• Iran had earlier threatened to attack US bases in the Middle East in response to any attack

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Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu with F35 Fighter Jet

Israel launched dozens of air strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, senior military commanders, and nuclear scientists on Friday, warning that this would be a prolonged operation. (FT & Reuters)

The strikes come after an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution on Thursday declared Iran in noncompliance with its nuclear safeguards obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years….Iran’s uranium enrichment has reached 60% purity — a dramatically higher level that is a short technical step from the weapons-grade purity level of 90%. “A country enriching at 60% is a very serious thing. Only countries making bombs are reaching this level,” IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said in 2021. (CNBC)

Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh told reporters Wednesday that if nuclear talks fail and “a conflict is imposed on us,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “will target all U.S. bases in the host countries.”

A source familiar with the situation and a U.S. official told CBS News that the Trump administration was weighing options regarding how to support Israeli military action without leading it…
The source said the options are unlikely to include direct participation by U.S. B-2 bombers that carry the type of bombs that can penetrate Iran’s deep underground fortified uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow and Natanz. Without that type of strike, it is unlikely Israeli military action could destroy the underground portions of Iran’s program, and thus solo military action by Israel is presumed to be limited in its capability to fully eliminate the program. (CBS)

Conclusion

Israel won’t back down (I-W-B-D).

Israel faces an existential threat from a nuclear-armed Iran and will strike first in an attempt to eliminate the threat. The strikes may delay Iran’s uranium-enrichment program, but are unlikely to prevent the country’s leaders from pursuing their nuclear weapons goal.

The only way to eliminate the threat would be a full-scale invasion, which is likely beyond Israel’s capability. The US will offer support but is unlikely to become directly embroiled in the conflict unless attacked by Iran.

Oil prices are expected to spike due to supply concerns, while a flight to safety will likely boost gold demand.

Acknowledgments

• Reuters: Israel strikes Iran nuclear facilities, missile factories
• Financial Times: Israel launches air strikes against Iran commanders and nuclear sites
• CNBC: Trump wanted an Iran nuclear deal fast. Now he may get military confrontation
• CBS: Israel is poised to launch operation on Iran, multiple sources say