The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.
Bull/Bear Market
The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 54%, with three of six leading indicators signaling risk-off, while the US bull-bear index (a 40% weighting) is at 60%:
The ASX 200 continues in a strong downtrend relative to the gold price in Australian Dollars.
The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is retracing to test resistance at 8500, but remains in a primary downtrend.
Stock Pricing
ASX stock pricing increased to the 76.18 percentile compared to 74.05 two weeks ago, and a high of 85.83 in February.
Conclusion
The ASX bull-bear indicator at 54% indicates a mild bear market.
We are entering a bear market, and the risk of a significant drawdown is high.
Acknowledgments
- NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2025
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- Morningstar: ASX All Ords & ASX 20 Statistics
- Market Index: ASX Statistics
- ABS: National Accounts
- ASX: Historical Market Statistics
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.