Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter.
Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3.
Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that monetary policy remains supportive.
This is borne out by the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index at a low -0.56.
Credit markets also signal strong liquidity, with Moody’s Baa corporate bond spread narrowing to 1.49%.
Conclusion
Real GDP growth is slowing gradually, as expected during a rate-cut cycle. Financial market liquidity remains strong, and there is nothing particularly concerning.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.