Treasury yields are trending upwards, as inflation proves persistent, but also driven by the scarcity of foreign buyers in the UST market. Rising Japanese long-term yields, the result of a weak Yen and higher inflation, make Treasuries less attractive to Japanese institutional investors. Geopolitical tensions have also motivated the BRICS, led by China, and the Saudis, to reduce exposure to the Dollar and increase their gold reserves.
10-Year Treasury yields are retracing to test support at 4.5%. Rising Trend Index troughs indicate upward pressure and respect of support would confirm another test of 4.7%.
Liquidity in financial markets is improving, however, with commercial bank reserves restoring almost half of the amount lost during the April tax payment season.
Stocks
The S&P 500 is undergoing a retracement, likely to test support at 5200. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of secondary selling pressure, with the strong primary up-trend unlikely to be threatened.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 fared slightly better, finding short-term support at 6600. But a steeper Trend Index decline warns of stronger selling pressure. Breach of 6600 would warn of a test of primary support at 6450.
Gold and the Dollar
The Dollar index twice respected resistance at 105 and another test of the key 104 level is likely. Breach of 104 and the rising trendline would warn of a reversal to test the band of primary support (red) between 100 and 101.
Gold made a weak recovery above support at $2330 per ounce. The Trend Index warns of significant selling pressure and another test of primary support at $2280 is likely. Domestic Chinese demand remains strong, however, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au99.99 contract trading at an equivalent of $2373 per ounce.
Silver also shows selling pressure, with a lower peak on the Trend Index. Another test of support at $30 per ounce is likely.
Crude Oil
Nymex light crude is again testing support at $78 per barrel after a strong inventory build reported by the EIA. Follow-through below $77 would signal another decline, with a likely test of primary support at $68.
Crude oil and petroleum inventories are rebuilding after a decline in early 2024.
The managed money short position in Brent Crude futures is at its highest level since 2020, suggesting a bearish outlook for crude oil. But beware of a surprise OPEC+ production cut in the lead-up to the November US elections.
Conclusion
The key variable in our short-term outlook is financial market liquidity. That is improving and should support stock prices.
In the long-term, lower crude oil prices are expected to ease inflationary pressures and allow the Fed to maintain easy monetary policies. But the Treasury market is susceptible to selling by foreign investors — which should maintain upward pressure on long-term yields.
Lower inflation and higher long-term yields are bearish for precious metals. But these are outweighed by increased central bank buying due to geopolitical tensions and collapse of the Chinese real estate market. This has left domestic investors shifting to Gold as an alternative store of value.
We remain short-term bullish on stocks. Long-term, we prefer critical materials needed for the energy transition — especially lithium, copper and uranium; heavy electrical industry; and defensive sectors with strong dividends.
Acknowledgements
- EIA: Petroleum Products Inventory
- Barchart.com: Crude Oil Futures Short Position
- Shanghai Gold Exchange: Gold Contract Prices