The Dollar price of gold breached support at $1240/ounce, signaling a primary down-trend. A long tail indicates active buyers and we can expect retracement to test the new resistance level at $1250.
The Dollar Index continues to test strong resistance at 95.
But Chinese selling to support the Yuan has not materialized in sufficient magnitude to reverse Dollar strength. Dollar Index breakout above 95 is likely to spur selling of gold.
The Australian Dollar has not weakened sufficiently to protect local gold miners, with the price of Gold in Australian Dollars falling sharply.
The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) broke support at 4950. Expect a test of 4600.
Downside risk to Australian gold stocks is rising.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.