Gold respected the new resistance level at $1240 after a brief retracement, confirming a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the bear signal. Expect further support at $1200/ounce, breach would add further confirmation.
* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000
Silver is testing primary support at $18.50 per ounce. Breach of support would signal a down-trend and strengthen the bear signal for gold. Respect is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation.
Interest Rates and the Dollar
A rising Dollar and rising Treasury yields both put downward pressure on gold.
The Dollar Index is testing resistance at the 2013 high of 84.50. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Reversal below 81.50 is most unlikely. Upward breakout would offer a long-term target of 89*.
* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89.00
The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke resistance at 2.50 percent and is now consolidating at 2.60. Follow-through above 2.65 would signal an advance to 3.00. Respect would signal a decline to 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero would suggest a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 2.65 + ( 2.65 – 2.30 ) = 3.00
nice sir
it would be very interesting to see a comparison chart of the dollar versus the gold while gold was going up and the dollar is falling. I am sure that you will see that gold was much higher when the dollar was on its way down then it is now that the dollar is on its way up. Does not suggest a dissynchronization or a manipulation? I don’t know the numbers but I’ll wager that when the dollar was higher than it is now, gold was also higher than it is now.
Remember that gold is priced in Dollars. If we consider gold as a currency, Dollar strength would be shown by a gold/$ fall and gold strength by a gold/$ rise. Given that there are external factors that affect both demand for gold and for Dollars there is unlikely to be a fixed ratio.