- S&P 500 retreats below 1985.
- VIX continues to indicate a bull market.
- ASX 200 breaks resistance.
The S&P 500 retreated below its new support level at 1985, indicating a false break. Consolidation between 1950 and 1985 is likely — below the psychological barrier at 2000. Respect of support at 1950 would confirm. Declining 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal mild, medium-term selling pressure. Further resistance is likely at the 2000 level — and at 4000 on the Nasdaq 100. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 2250*.
* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recovered to above 12. Low levels continue to indicate a bull market.
Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is consolidating above medium-term support at 3150. Breach would signal a test of the primary level at 3000. Descent of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of modest long-term selling pressure. Recovery above 3250 is less likely at present, but would suggest a target of 3450*.
* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3150 ) = 3450
China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 2100 and is headed for a test of 2150. Breakout would suggest a primary up-trend, but I would wait for confirmation at 2250. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2050 is unlikely at present but would warn of another test of primary support at 1990/2000.
* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850
The ASX 200 broke clear of resistance at 5540/5560 on strong results from BHP. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but Friday’s long tail and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicate short-term buying pressure. Respect of support would indicate a long-term advance to 5800*. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800