Leith van Onselen quotes the latest JP Morgan report on the Australian economy:
…risk of a recession is “inevitably higher now than usual; the economy has built up vulnerabilities over time that have been masked by the continued growth in output and national income… the downside of avoiding recession is that Australia has carried these excesses through a succession of growth cycles”.
Households are particularly at risk from expensive house prices and high levels of household debt. Which brings me back to the unnecessary risks bank regulators are taking by condoning low bank capital ratios of between 4.0% and 4.5% of total credit exposure. Risk-weighting of bank assets provided a smokescreen, inflating perceived ratios to around 10%, while encouraging over-exposure to (low risk-weighted) residential mortgages.
Read more at Crawling, not walking, to non-mining led growth | | MacroBusiness.