Spot gold is testing its rising trendline and support at $1350. Breach of support would warn that another test of primary support at $1200 is likely. Respect of the trendline, however, remains as likely and would offer a target of $1500*. Breakout above the standard deviation trend channel suggests that a bottom is forming and, although we may see another test of $1200 before this is over, primary support is likely to hold.
* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1350 ) = 1500
Dollar Index
The Dollar Index is retreating for another test of primary support at 80.50, lifting gold and commodities. Breach of the long-term rising trendline would suggest that the primary up-trend is weakening, while failure of support would signal a reversal. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero also favors a down-trend; reversal below recent lows at -2% would strengthen the signal.
Crude Oil
Nymex and Brent crude are retreating on easing of tensions over Syria, but are unlikely to break support at $103/barrel and the rising trendline.
* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118
Commodities
A rising Shanghai Composite Index is likely to lift commodity prices. Recovery above 130 on Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index would be likely to test 135. Follow-through below the present 129, however, would test primary support at 124/125. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would also indicate continuation of the primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135