Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise

Gold broke the rising trendline and support at $1440/$1450, indicating another test of primary support at $1320. Target of $1200* for the decline would be confirmed by a breach of primary support.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1350 – ( 1500 – 1350 ) = 1200

Treasury Yields

Ten-year treasury yields broke resistance at 1.80% and are headed for a test of 2.00/2.05%. Breach of that level would signal a primary up-trend, but the thirty-year secular bear trend (in yields) remains downward and would only be reversed by a rise above 4.00%. Respect of resistance at 2.05% remains likely and would indicate another down-swing to test primary support at 1.60%. A weak inflation outlook, as indicated by falling gold prices, would decrease demand for stocks (as an inflation hedge) and increase demand for bonds.

Dollar Index

Dollar Index

The Dollar is strengthening, with the Dollar Index testing resistance at 84. Breakout would signal a test of long-term resistance at 89/90*.
Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89

Crude Oil

Brent Crude respected resistance at $106/barrel, indicating a down-swing to $92*. Nymex WTI respected resistance at $98 and is likely to re-test resistance at $85/barrel. A classic pair trade, the spread between the two is likely to narrow as the European economy under-performs.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude


Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones/UBS Commodity Index headed for primary support at 125/126. The major driver of commodity prices is China and reversal of the current down-trend, on both indices, appears some way off despite a US recovery.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

2 Replies to “Gold and commodities fall while Dollar and bond yields rise”

  1. gold should continue t o rise America japan Europe have had there day if we can only convince the market Graham

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