The Euro broke support at $1.28 against the greenback (weekly chart). Respect of the descending trendline warns of a down-swing to test primary support at $1.20. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal. But the Dollar Index and Gold suggest the opposite. Recovery above $1.28 would indicate a bear trap.
The Dollar Index is inversely rising to test resistance at 81/81.50. Breakout would indicate another test of 84.00 but 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Rising gold also suggests dollar weakness. Reversal below support at 78.50 would complete a head-and-shoulders reversal with a target of 74*.
* Target calculation: 79 – ( 84 – 79 ) = 74
Spot gold (daily chart) broke resistance at $1725 per ounce, signaling an advance to $1900*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm. The conundrum is the euro is weakening and dollar index strengthening but gold is rising rather than weakening as expected.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
The DJ-UBS Commodity Index (weekly chart) found support at 140. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is testing zero. Respect would indicate a primary up-trend. Recovery above $1.52 would confirm. Breach of $140, however, and 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero, resulting from a strengthening dollar and/or global down-turn, would test primary support at 126.
Nymex WTI Light Crude is headed for a test of primary support at $76/$78 per barrel. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Brent Crude is also weakening, headed for test of primary support at $90.
Hi Colin,
I just want to thank you for the newsletter. I always enjoy reading your comments. I feel that my understanding of technical analysis has steadily improved.
Sincerely,
Steve
Thank you
How about a chart of the Tapis price – more relevant for Australians?
@Henry
Europe reader here(Netherlands).
I’am very fond on the Newsletters of mister Twiggs. I think directing towards Australia even more would scare a lot of (potential) readers.
Altrough I like reading about the ASX 200 and the Economic status of Australia.
Thank you for the feedback. I will try to maintain a balance.
Colin, good work but remember that correlations change and trend over time creating “conundrums.” Empirically, we have learned that when in doubt (considering derivative indicators) it is best to rely on actual price and volume action. Keep your emails coming, I appreciate the clarity of your analysis. My best, Harry Dressler, Dressler Strategic Advisors, Inc. at ArbitrationExpert.com