Is the Fed likely to introduce new asset purchases before or after the November election? Peter Boockvar at The Big Picture writes:
Bottom line, of the 10 voting FOMC members, 8 are doves so it will always be the case that “many” are ready for more QE if need be. The hawks are few and far between. I stick to my belief that more QE is coming on Sept 13th as the Oct meeting is too close to the election and Bernanke won’t act in Dec if Romney wins. This could be his last chance for a while and Ben still seems to believe in the pixie dust of QE.
CNBC reports Nomura’s Bob Janjuah is predicting more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve in December.
Those hoping for a big bazooka from the Fed or the European Central Bank before December will be disappointed, [Janjuah] said.
My view is that September is too soon: the Fed is likely to hold off until after the election unless the situation gets desperate. And December is too soon afterwards. Early 2013 seems a safer bet.