Category: Crude Oil & Natural Gas

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Crude Rises as Peace Talks Stall

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures rise to $107.88 per barrel at 8:40 am BST.
  • Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has withdrawn from the negotiating team.
  • President Trump calls off negotiations with Iran.
  • The US blockade is “going global,” according to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth.
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Rising Crude is Bearish for Gold

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (June’26) rose to $103.68 per barrel.
  • The S&P 500 reached a new high. However, the bull signal has not been confirmed by the Dow and the S&P 1500 Transportation Index.
  • The Fed has injected $170 billion of liquidity into financial markets since December 2025.
  • 10-year Treasury yields found support at 4.25%, while gold is headed for another test of support at $4,500 per ounce.

Brent crude futures (June’26) broke resistance at $100 per barrel and are now testing $104.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE June'26)
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Iran Update

Key Points

  • Iran is considering attending peace talks with the United States in Pakistan, ​a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday.
  • The US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place.
  • Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz and remains a threat to oil pipelines in the region.
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Don’t Chase the Rally

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq QQQ ETF have made new highs at 7126 and 649, respectively, signaling a fresh advance.
  • However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The S&P 500 broke resistance at 7000, rallying to 7126 on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a resolution to the war with Iran.

S&P 500

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Dire Straits

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to “work a deal.”
  • However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday.
  • The “genie is out of the bottle,” and the Gulf states are unlikely to settle for a deal that leaves Iran with the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
  • A US blockade of Iranian ports could escalate tensions with China.
  • Lithium miners jumped on sharp increases in EV sales in Europe and other countries that saw steep increases in energy prices.
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Blockade

Key Points

  • President Donald Trump announced a US blockade on Iranian shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Closure of the Strait will restrict 20% of the global oil supply.
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First Wave of Gulf War Hits CPI

Key Points

  • CPI jumped by almost 0.9% in March, fueled by a steep rise in crude oil prices.
  • A 21.2% jump in gasoline prices accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly ​CPI increase.
  • We expect further waves as rising costs reach agriculture, mining, and transportation before filtering through to the broader economy.
  • The S&P 500 stalled at 6800.
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to its lowest level since the late 1970s.

The first wave of price hikes hit CPI in March, with the index jumping 0.865%, fueled by a steep rise in crude oil prices driven by the war in the Persian Gulf.
CPI & Core CPI - Monthly

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Ceasefire Falls Apart

Key Points

  • Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
  • Iran’s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation.
  • Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire ‌was agreed.
  • The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and refining facilities. Iran retaliates with a barrage of missiles and drones.
  • Ukraine defies calls to stop striking Russian energy facilities.
  • Brent crude bids for spot delivery at $144 per barrel, but no sellers.
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Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight

Key Points

  • President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.
  • Brent crude futures (Jun’26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel.
  • Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce as the Dollar weakened.

President Trump has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

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