Sweden: Failure of the welfare state experiment

…..Sweden has a large welfare state and is successful. This is often seen as a proof that a ‘third way’ policy between socialism and capitalism works well, and that other nations can reach the same favourable social outcomes by simply expanding the size of government. If one studies Swedish history and society in-depth however it quickly becomes evident that this simplistic analysis is flawed. The Swedish experience might as well be used to argue for the benefits of free-market oriented policies, and as a warning of the economic and social problems that can arise when government involvement in society becomes too large…….In the long run….. even the well-functioning societies in Scandinavia have been adversely impacted by welfare dependency and high levels of taxation. The ‘third way’ policy has not persisted – it can be viewed as a short-lived and failed experiment. Throughout most of its modern history Sweden has had a favourable business environment. The period characterised by the most extensive welfare state policies, where Sweden deviated strongly from the western norm, around 1970-1995, is an exception. That period was associated with a stagnant economy.

…….The transition towards an extensive welfare state that occurred in Sweden led….. to an economic cost in terms of reduced entrepreneurship, as taxes and regulation hindered the development of private businesses. It also led to a significant crowding out of private employment. Between 1950 and 2005, the Swedish population grew from seven to nine million, but net job creation in the private sector was zero. Jobs in the public sector expanded rapidly until the end of the 1970s. As it became difficult to further expand the already large public sector, job creation simply stopped (Bjuggren and Johansson, 2009).

Nima Sanandaji, The Institute of Economic Affairs, Sweden Paper August 2012.pdf (application/pdf Object).

Australia: ASX 200 meets resistance

The ASX 200 met resistance at 4400. Short retracement or narrow consolidation would be a bullish sign, suggesting a breakout. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around the zero line, however, would suggest a ranging market, with further tests of primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

The Daily chart shows the ASX 200 testing the upper border of its trend channel. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure; reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. Failure of initial support at 4320 would indicate a swing to the lower trend channel.

ASX 200 Index Daily

Asia: India rises but China, Japan bearish

India’s Sensex is retracing to test its new support level at 17500. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and signal an advance to 18500*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum also suggests a primary up-trend.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is consolidating above support at 3000. Reversal below 3000 would signal a test of the lower trend channel, while follow-through above 3100 would indicate a fresh advance. It is unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. The next trough should clarify this; respect of zero indicating a primary up-trend.

Singapore Straits Times Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is retracing to test support at 9000 after completing a double-bottom. Respect would confirm a primary advance to 10000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow peaking below zero, however, warns of selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 9100 + ( 9100 – 8200 ) = 10000

China’s Shanghai Composite followed-through below 2100, confirming the primary decline with a target of 1800*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

The Hang Seng drifts fairly aimlessly. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests selling pressure. Breach of 18000 would signal a primary down-trend but we still appear some way from that.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 18 ) = 22

European buying pressure

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test support at 5700. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 5700 would signal an advance to 6100; expect strong resistance at that level because of the number of previous peaks. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Madrid General Index is consolidating above 720 after completing a double-bottom reversal. Follow-through above 760 would signal an advance to 900*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the reversal signal.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 750 + ( 750 – 600 ) = 900

Germany’s DAX shows strong buying pressure, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating high above zero. Consolidation or retracement below 7200 is likely, followed by an advance to 7600. Expect strong resistance at 7500/7600 because of the number of previous peaks.

DAX Index

Canada: TSX60 buying pressure

The TSX 60 is testing resistance at 700 on the weekly chart. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates buying pressure. Follow-through above 700 would test primary resistance at 730. Reversal below 680 is unlikely, but would re-test primary support at 640.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 730 + ( 730 – 640 ) = 820

S&P 500 and Nasdaq bearish divergence

The S&P 500 Index continues to test resistance at 1420. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the lower trend channel; reversal below 1380 would indicate a correction. Breakout above 1420, however, would signal an advance to the 2007 high at 1560*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560

The Nasdaq 100 is similarly testing resistance at 2800 on the weekly chart. Breakout would offer a target of 3150*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates continuation of the primary up-trend, but reversal below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2450 ) = 3150

Fedex is testing support at $88, neckline of the March/April double top. Failure of support would suggest continuation of the primary down-trend; confirmed if support at $84 is broken.

Fedex

Gold breaks out on dollar weakness

Raised expectations of further quantitative easing by the Fed caused the Dollar to fall sharply. Penetration of the rising trendline by the US Dollar Index would warn that a top is forming. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest a primary trend reversal. Respect of support, however, would indicate that the market overreacted and the primary trend will continue.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold broke resistance at $1650 per ounce, indicating  a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. A trough above zero or retracement that respects the new support level would confirm the breakout, suggesting an advance to $1800.

Spot Gold

The CRB Commodities Index also benefited from the weaker dollar, breaking medium-term resistance at 305 to indicate a test of the February high at 325. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a trend reversal, but only a trough above zero would confirm.

CRB Commodities Index

Brent Crude continues to test resistance at $115 per barrel. Breakout would indicate a test of the March high at $126. Reversal below $108 is unlikely, but would signal another test of support at $90/$100. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero would strengthen the bull signal.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

BOB JANJUAH: Time For Action, Warning Over – Business Insider

Sam Ro of Business Insider reports on Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah’s August 21 note:

“I now think the correct thing to do – as I also said in April and June – is to prepare for a serious risk-off phase between August and November,” [Janjuah] reiterated. “Over the August to November period I am looking for the S&P500 to trade off down from around 1400…by 20% to 25%…to trade at or below the lows of 2011.”

He argues that the key drivers of this sell-off will be disappointment at next week’s Federal Reserve Jackson Hole speech and realization that the ECB won’t be be able to deliver on their promises.

via BOB JANJUAH: Time For Action, Warning Over – Business Insider.

When will the Fed QE?

Is the Fed likely to introduce new asset purchases before or after the November election? Peter Boockvar at The Big Picture writes:

Bottom line, of the 10 voting FOMC members, 8 are doves so it will always be the case that “many” are ready for more QE if need be. The hawks are few and far between. I stick to my belief that more QE is coming on Sept 13th as the Oct meeting is too close to the election and Bernanke won’t act in Dec if Romney wins. This could be his last chance for a while and Ben still seems to believe in the pixie dust of QE.

CNBC reports Nomura’s Bob Janjuah is predicting more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve in December.

Those hoping for a big bazooka from the Fed or the European Central Bank before December will be disappointed, [Janjuah] said.

My view is that September is too soon: the Fed is likely to hold off until after the election unless the situation gets desperate. And December is too soon afterwards. Early 2013 seems a safer bet.

Money Fund Reforms Seen Harming Alternative to Banks

SEC attempts to reform the money market industry are running into opposition from corporate treasurers. Maria Sapan from Securities Technology Monitor writes:

The Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed rules that would revamp the $2.6 trillion U.S. money market fund industry, arguing it remains a risk to the financial system. Last month, [Thomas C. Deas, Jr., the treasurer of chemical company FMC Corp and chairman of the National Association of Corporate Treasurers] testified before a House subcommittee that the reforms – such as floating the funds’ net asset value or imposing new capital requirements – would “have a significant negative impact on the ongoing viability of these funds, and also adversely affect the corporate commercial paper market.”

Money market funds are effectively involved in maturity transformation — borrowing short and lending long — which is a function of banks. Maturity transformation is vulnerable to bank runs in times of uncertainty, where depositors demand repayment and borrowers are unable to comply because of liquidity pressures. My view is that if you want to perform the functions of a bank, you need to be registered as a bank, with the same reserve requirements as other banks, and supervised by the Fed. Avoiding these requirements may provide cheaper sources of credit to large corporates, but at the cost of increased risk to the entire economy.

via Money Fund Reforms Seen Harming Alternative to Banks.