ASX 200 and the Banks

The ASX 200 retreat below support level at 6350 has been gentle, with a long tail indicating that buying support remains. The Trend Index likewise shows only a moderate decline. Respect of support at 6000 would be a bullish sign.

ASX 200

Financials are the largest sector, comprising 32.1% of the ASX 200 according to S&P Indices. Retracement has so far been gentle and respect of the new support level at 6000 would be a bullish sign.

ASX 200 Financials

Apart from a declining housing market and the RBNZ call for more than $8 billion in additional equity capital (estimated by S&P Global Ratings), the four major banks face declining margins.

Net Interest Income (as % of Total Assets) has rallied since 2015 but remains in a long-term down-trend, with a projected average of 1.7%. Fee income (right-hand scale) has declined to below 0.50% of total assets, while other income (RHS) fluctuates around 0.20%.

Banks Income as % of Total Assets

Source: APRA – Major Banks

If we compare income to operating expenses, the gap between non-interest income (fees, commissions & other income) and operating expenses is widening. Combined with declining net interest margins and increasing capital requirements, the heady days of strong profit growth may be nearing an end.

Banks Income & Expenses as % of Total Assets

Source: APRA – Major Banks

I am cautious of Australian banks, more because of the headwinds they face over the next two years than the long-term outlook, but declining margins do not help. We hold more than 40% in cash and fixed interest in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Materials (the second largest sector at 18.1%) are undergoing a modest correction. Respect of support at 12500 would be a bullish sign. Declining Money Flow peaks, however, warn of strong selling pressure and a test of 12000 remains likely.

ASX 200 Materials