The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index jumped from –0.4% in April to 4.1% in September this year — above its long-term average of 2.8%. According to Westpac, main contributors to the growth improvement were:
- manufacturing materials prices (1.2 ppt’s);
- overtime worked (1.0 ppt’s);
- productivity (1.2 ppt’s);
- corporate operating surplus (1.1 ppt’s);
- dwelling approvals (1.0 ppt’s); and
- All Ordinaries index (0.2 ppt’s).
Negative influences were:
- U.S industrial production (–0.9 ppt’s); and
- real money supply (–0.2 ppt’s).
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.