Tag: Ukraine

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Trouble in the East

Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania plan to form a common brigade:

Ben Judah, author of Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In And Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin observes:

“This emerging military alliance between Ukraine and Poland/Lithuania is a sign that the US/EU ability to control it allies decreasing fast.”

Lack of leadership from their Western allies is forcing Eastern NATO states to form their own alliances, which could drag NATO into a conflict with Russia. Garry Kasparov in an interview with Maria Bartiromo sums up the situation:

“If you try to lead from behind no one will follow you….Obama shows unwillingness to engage the challenges that are there.”

Garry Kasparov on Putin

Click on image to play video

Obama is no Ronald Reagan and his reluctance to confront Putin is encouraging further risk-taking. As Petro Poroshenko told the House:

We appreciate the blankets and night-vision goggles that you sent us….but we cannot fight a war with blankets.”

The ceasefire in the East is tenuous and likely to collapse at any time.

If the ceasefire does collapse, Putin will continue to escalate, destroying Obama’s and NATO credibility with their allies in the East. Sanctions have not worked as a deterrent. Brent crude is falling

Nymex and Brent Crude

But the impact on Russia is cushioned by the falling Rouble.

RUBUSD

In the long-term this will cause inflation. But the immediate deterrent effect is negligible.

Posted on

Trouble in the East

Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania plan to form a common brigade:

Ben Judah, author of Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In And Out Of Love With Vladimir Putin observes:

“This emerging military alliance between Ukraine and Poland/Lithuania is a sign that the US/EU ability to control it allies decreasing fast.”

Lack of leadership from their Western allies is forcing Eastern NATO states to form their own alliances, which could drag NATO into a conflict with Russia. Garry Kasparov in an interview with Maria Bartiromo sums up the situation:

“If you try to lead from behind no one will follow you….Obama shows unwillingness to engage the challenges that are there.”

Garry Kasparov on Putin

Click on image to play video

Obama is no Ronald Reagan and his reluctance to confront Putin is encouraging further risk-taking. As Petro Poroshenko told the House:

We appreciate the blankets and night-vision goggles that you sent us….but we cannot fight a war with blankets.”

The ceasefire in the East is tenuous and likely to collapse at any time.

If the ceasefire does collapse, Putin will continue to escalate, destroying Obama’s and NATO credibility with their allies in the East. Sanctions have not worked as a deterrent. Brent crude is falling

Nymex and Brent Crude

But the impact on Russia is cushioned by the falling Rouble.

RUBUSD

In the long-term this will cause inflation. But the immediate deterrent effect is negligible.

Posted on

A Premature Party for Poroshenko

From Leon Aron, Director of Russian studies at the American Enterprise Institute:

…By withholding military assistance to Ukraine — the only thing that could have changed Putin’s mind by giving Kiev a chance to turn the tide on the battlefield — the West has greatly contributed to [Ukrainian President] Poroshenko’s decision to accept a very bad deal. No amount of ovation, not even a standing one, during Poroshenko’s address to the joint session of Congress today can obscure this grim reality.

Read more at A Premature Party for Poroshenko.

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Poroshenko: ‘Today Ukraine is bleeding for its independence and territorial integrity’

From Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s speech to the Canadian parliament in Ottawa on September 17:

Today Ukraine pays a very high price for defending what we believe in – democracy and freedom to choose our own future. For more than two decades we proudly stated that Ukraine gained its independence without shedding a single drop of blood.

Today Ukraine is bleeding for its independence and territorial integrity.

Read more at Poroshenko: 'Today Ukraine is bleeding for its independence and territorial integrity' VIDEO.

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Putin’s Playbook | NYTimes.com

From Maxim Trudolyubov, opinion page editor of the business newspaper Vedomosti:

…So what is Mr. Putin up to, my American friends and colleagues keep asking. He is, quite simply, bent on preserving and expanding his personal and Russia’s international power. Some of his methods were inherited from the Soviets, some were developed in the absence of domestic political traditions, and some were borrowed from the West. There is no consistent ideology. Nor is there is anything particularly Russian about his beliefs. But the methodology in his playbook is constant and ruthless. It involves techniques that function when all past checks on power — institutional constraints and traditional values — are gone. If it’s true that much of the world is moving in this same ruthless direction, then, yes, Mr. Putin’s methods are indeed political guidelines for the future.

Read more at Putin's Playbook – NYTimes.com.

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European ceasefire

Neil MacFarquhar reports in The New York Times:

After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox…..

The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.

It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television….

There appears plenty of skepticism as to whether the ceasefire will hold… and whether Russian forces will withdraw, but markets welcomed the announcement.

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9700/9800. Breakout would indicate a fresh advance, while follow-through above 10000 would confirm a target of 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero suggests selling pressure is easing. Retreat below 9250, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The S&P 500 rallied above 2000. Follow-through above 2010 would confirm an advance to 2100*. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggests further consolidation. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, broke resistance at 2250 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2500*. Reversal below 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 broke short-term support at 5620, but with both US and Chinese markets entering a bull phase retracement is likely to be short-lived. Breakout above 5680 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

Posted on

European ceasefire

Neil MacFarquhar reports in The New York Times:

After five months of intensifying combat that threatened to rip Ukraine apart and to reignite the Cold War, the Ukrainian government and separatist forces signed a cease-fire agreement on Friday that analysts considered highly tenuous in a country that remains a tinderbox…..

The agreement resembles, almost verbatim, a proposal for a truce issued by President Petro O. Poroshenko in June.

It includes amnesty for those who disarm and who did not commit serious crimes, and the exchange of all prisoners. Militias will be disbanded, and a 10-kilometer buffer zone — about six miles — will be established along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area will be subject to joint patrols. The separatists have agreed to leave the administrative buildings they control and to allow broadcasts from Ukraine to resume on local television….

There appears plenty of skepticism as to whether the ceasefire will hold… and whether Russian forces will withdraw, but markets welcomed the announcement.

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9700/9800. Breakout would indicate a fresh advance, while follow-through above 10000 would confirm a target of 11000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero suggests selling pressure is easing. Retreat below 9250, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The S&P 500 rallied above 2000. Follow-through above 2010 would confirm an advance to 2100*. Sideways movement on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, however, suggests further consolidation. Reversal below 1990 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1900 ) = 2100

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains low, typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Shanghai Composite Index, responding to PBOC stimulus, broke resistance at 2250 to signal a primary up-trend. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates accelerating buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2500*. Reversal below 2250 is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation between 2000 and 2250.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 broke short-term support at 5620, but with both US and Chinese markets entering a bull phase retracement is likely to be short-lived. Breakout above 5680 would confirm an advance to 5850*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate that buyers are back in control. Reversal below 5540 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5450 ) = 5850

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Luc Vancraen: Can the EU still prevent an open war between Ukraine and Russia?

Interesting proposal from Luc Vancraen, an entrepreneur in Kyiv who holds a masters degree from Boston University:

If there is no Novorussia today it is because of the ferocious fighting of the Ukrainian armed forces. If the EU wants the Ukrainians to stop fighting after Donbas is liberated it will have to come up with a plan that convinces even the volunteer battalions that it is just a matter of time before Crimea returns to Ukraine.

The only way I can see this happen is through a Crimean Occupation Tax on all energy imported from Russia into the EU and all other countries that want to participate. President Putin will not like this tax at all but strangely enough it might be enough for him to belief that this could stop the Ukrainian army. It buys him time and he can speculate on convincing the EU to drop it later through good behaviour even though this won’t be easy with a name like this.

The tax will be paid on all Russian gas, oil and coal sold in the EU. Who pays this tax? Initially it will be EU citizens through their energy bills. This allows Putin through the Russian propaganda to trivialise these sanctions and to laugh with the stupidity of the EU that sanctions itself. But don’t underestimate the creativity of the energy companies. They will find other suppliers and this helps the EU to reduce dependency from a supplier they can no longer trust. Russia will be faced very fast with a serious dilemma. Lowering energy prices to include the tax so that it remains competitive with suppliers that don’t need to pay this or totally losing the biggest customer on earth. Simulations show that after just two years it is Russia that is paying this tax to avoid totally losing the EU as a customer.

Read more at Luc Vancraen: Can the EU still prevent an open war between Ukraine and Russia?.

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Garry Kasparov: It’s a War, Stupid! | TIME

From Gary Kasparov:

As always when it comes to stopping dictators, with every delay the price goes up. Western leaders have protested over the potential costs of action Ukraine at every turn only to be faced with the well-established historical fact that the real costs of inaction are always higher. Now the only options left are risky and difficult, and yet they must be tried. The best reason for acting to stop Putin today is brutally simple: It will only get harder tomorrow.

Read more at Garry Kasparov: It’s a War, Stupid! | TIME.

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