Ukraine Archives - Page 7 of 7 - the patient investor

March 4, 2014

Europe: Shaken but not stirred

The Euro has held up well despite rising tensions with Russia over the Ukraine. Reversal below $1.365 would warn of a test of primary support at $1.35. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests another correction. Breakout above $1.38 is less likely at present, but would signal an advance to $1.43*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 retreated below 3100 and is likely to test primary support at 2920/2950. Breach of primary support would signal reversal to a down-trend.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3150 + ( 3150 – 2950 ) = 3350

Germany’s DAX is stronger, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggesting another attempt at 10,000. But retreat below 9500 would test primary support at 9000.

DAX

DAX Volatility spiked above 20, but still reflects moderate risk.

DAX

March 4, 2014

As China looks on, Putin poses risky dilemma for the West | Reuters

David Rohde at Reuters quotes James Jeffrey, a retired career U.S. diplomat:

Jeffrey said the days and months ahead will be vital. If Putin faces few long-term consequences for seizing Crimea, it will set a precedent for China and other regional powers who may be considering establishing 19th century-style spheres of influence of their own.

“The Chinese,” Jeffrey said, “are in the same position.”

March 4, 2014

Putin order does not apply to troops in Crimea

Euro

March 4, 2014

E-mini jumps on Putin order

E-mini jumps on Putin order for troops to return to bases (Reuters).

E-mini

Breakout above 1850 is a bullish sign. S&P 500 follow-through above 1860 would signal an advance to 1950.

March 3, 2014

Realpolitik In Ukraine | Anatole Kaletsky , Gavekal

Quote from Anatole Kaletsky, Gavekal, in John Mauldin’s Outside the Box newsletter:

…..it is literally inconceivable that Putin will ever withdraw from Crimea. To give up Crimea now would mean the end of Putin’s presidency, since the Russian public, not to mention the military and security apparatus, believe almost unanimously that Crimea still belongs to Russia, since it was only administratively transferred to Ukraine, almost by accident, in 1954. In fact, many Russians believe, rightly or wrongly, that most of Ukraine “belongs” to them. (The very name of the country in Russian means “at the border” and certainly not “beyond the border”). Under these circumstances, the idea that Putin would respond to Western diplomatic or economic sanctions, no matter how stringent, by giving up his newly gained territory is pure wishful thinking.

Read more at John Mauldin: Outside the Box.