Spot Gold Archives - Page 38 of 38 - the patient investor

October 12, 2011

Dollar retreats, gold rises

The US Dollar Index is retracing to test support at 76.00. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and offer a target of 84.00* for the next advance. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84

Spot gold is testing the declining trendline and resistance at $1700/ounce. Respect would warn of a decline to test $1500*. The primary trend remains upward and will resume if the Fed introduces further quantitative easing in the months ahead.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500

October 10, 2011

Dollar fall lifts gold

The US Dollar Index broke out of its trend channel, warning of a correction back to 76 on the daily chart. Respect of 76 — or 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line — would confirm the primary up-trend and offer a target of 84*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84

Spot gold rallied as the dollar weakened and is testing its descending trendline and resistance at $1700/ounce. Respect would signal a decline to $1500*, while upward breakout would indicate that the correction has weakened but not necessarily ended.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500

October 5, 2011

Spot gold correction tests $1600

Spot gold is testing support at $1600/ounce, but the primary trend remains upward. Expect a rally to the declining trendline. Breakout above $1700 would indicate the correction is weakening, while failure of support would test $1500*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500

Amex Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is testing primary support at 500. Failure of support would warn of a reversal in the primary trend and would be a bearish sign for spot metal prices.

Amex Gold Bugs Index

September 28, 2011

Gold and crude suffer from strong dollar

Spot Gold is testing support at its initial target of $1600/ounce. The long tail is evidence of buying support, but failure would test $1500. The primary trend direction remains up and, despite gold experiencing a strong correction, is unlikely to change.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1750 – ( 1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

Brent crude is testing support at $104/barrel while Nymex WTI crude is at $80/barrel. There is no sign of the divergence between the two grades closing. Both have signaled a primary down-trend, though Brent has yet to confirm with a break of its rising trendline.

Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

September 23, 2011

Gold falls hard — not my best call

Spot gold broke support at $1700/ounce, falling hard to $1650. The calculated target is $1600* or $1500 depending on whether you take the base of the double top as $1750 or $1700.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1750 – ( 1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

When you look at the trend channel on the weekly chart, however, it is likely that the sharp correction will overshoot the trend channel on the lower side. Possibly as low as $1300*.

Spot Gold Weekly

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1300

I have to eat my words from September 11: “With Europe awash with stories of the imminent default of Greece, and German banks told to prepare for a 50% haircut on Greek bonds, this would be a good time to buy gold.” Sure I qualified by warning that below $1800 all bets were off, but should have placed more emphasis on the overbought situation on the weekly chart and less on the approaching European tsunami.

September 22, 2011

Gold tests key support level at $1750/ounce

Buyers appear to be losing interest and spot gold is headed for a test of the key $1750 support level. Failure would complete a double top, warning of a correction to $1500/$1600* (depending on whether you take the base as $1700 or $1750). Respect would indicate another test of $1900.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + (1900 – 1750 ) = 2050 and 1750 – (1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

September 20, 2011

Gold finds support

Spot gold penetrated short-term support at $1800/ounce and is testing the medium-term level at $1750. Compare the two declines in the current triangle/consolidation, however, and buying pressure (accumulation) is evident. It took two days for price to fall to $1750 during August, with two strong red candles one below the other. On the second downward leg, candle bodies often overlap and it has taken more than two weeks to reach the same target. Recovery above $1830 would signal another test of $1900 and confirm the bullish ascending triangle. Failure of support at $1750, however, would complete a double top, warning of a correction to $1600*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 2100 and 1750 – ( 1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

September 8, 2011

Gold finds support at $1800/ounce

Spot gold found short-term support at $1800/ounce. A rally to $1900 from this point would form a bullish ascending triangle, suggesting an upward breakout and offering a target of $2100*. Failure of support, however, would penetrate the rising (secondary) trendline and suggest a correction to $1500.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 2100

Gold Bugs ($HUI) and Gold Miners ($GDX) Indexes both broke through resistance to signal a fresh primary advance. With a target of 700 for $HUI, the breakout favors continuation of the current advance in spot prices.

Amex Gold Bugs Index $HUI

* Target calculation: 600 + ( 600 – 500 ) = 700

August 24, 2011

Will Bernanke pull the trigger?

Rising stocks and a sharp fall on spot gold reflect uncertainty as to whether Ben Bernanke will announce further quantitative easing by the Fed, at Jackson Hole, Wyo. on Friday. Further purchases of Treasurys by the Fed would lift inflation and send investors scrambling for inflation-hedges like gold and blue-chip stocks. Stocks are rising, but gold is falling. Could it be that promise of an end to the conflict in Libya makes the world a safer place — or that a resulting fall in oil prices would reduce inflationary pressures? Brent crude and the CRB Commodities Index are both rising, suggesting that the precious metals blow-off is driven by profit-taking — after the sharp surge over the last few weeks and ahead of an uncertain announcement on Friday.

Spot gold is testing its secondary [green] rising trendline at $1700/$1720. Support is likely to hold — especially if there is any hint of QE3 on Friday — but failure would warn of a fall to the long-term trendline around $1500/ounce.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 2100

The monthly gold chart shows spot gold testing the upper trend channel of the long-term bull-trend. Correction to the lower channel would result in a substantial fall. A lot depends on what happens Friday.

Spot Gold - Monthly