Spot gold rallied off support at $1670 as the dollar weakened. The primary trend remains upward and breakout above $1800 would signal a test of $1900*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns that the trend may be weakening, but only a cross below zero would confirm.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
Spot Gold is headed for another test of the lower trend channel on the weekly chart. Failure of support at $1600 would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend; follow-through below the September low at $1550 would confirm. A fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would also warn of a reversal.
Penetration of medium-term support at $1700 on the daily chart of spot gold is not a strong signal, but follow-through below the recent low would indicate a test of primary support at $1600. Failure would offer a target of $1400*.
* Target calculation: 1600 – ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 1400
The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index has been ranging between 500 and 600 for some time. Decline of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests long-term weakness. Reversal below primary support at 500 would signal a primary down-trend — and a negative outlook for gold.
Spot Gold is consolidating between $1740 and $1800, with the rising dollar halting its advance. Penetration of the rising trendline warns that momentum is slowing and breach of support at $1740 would signal another test of $1700.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1600 ) = 2200
The weekly chart shows gold continuing its long-term ascent in a narrow trend channel. Breakout below $1600 would warn of a reversal.
The gold-oil ratio has fluctuated in a far narrower range since mid-2009 and it may take some years before we see another overbought/oversold signal.
Spot gold is testing short-term support at $1750/ounce as the greenback strengthens. Breach of the rising trendline would suggest that the advance is losing momentum — and breakout below $1700 would signal another test of primary support at $1600. Respect of $1700 is less likely, but would signal an advance to $1900.
* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1700 ) = 1900
Spot gold is testing support at $1700/ounce after its recent breakout above the descending trendline and resistance (at $1700). Respect of support would indicate a primary advance to $1900. In the long term, breakout above $1900 would offer a target of $2200, while failure of support at $1600 would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1600 ) = 2200
Amex Gold Bugs Index is headed for another test of the upper border of its right-angled broadening wedge formation. The pattern is bearish and breakout below 500 would warn of a primary reversal for spot gold.
The Dollar Index retraced to test the new support level at 76.00. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal trend weakness. A trough above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bull signal.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84
Gold broke through $1700/ounce in response to dollar weakness. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would signal a primary advance to 1800*. The long-term (primary) trend remains upward.
* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1600 ) = 1800
The Amex Gold Bugs Index is testing medium-term resistance at 560. Breakout would test the upper border of broadening wedge pattern — around 650 — and support a similar advance for the spot metal.
Brent crude is also stronger, testing its upper trend channel at $110/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower channel — and the ascending long-term trendline — while breakout would signal an advance to $120*.
* Target calculation: 110 + ( 110 – 100 ) = 120
The broader CRB Commodities Index is also headed for its upper trend channel. The ascending primary trendline remains intact but 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) warns of a strong down-trend.
Spot gold is headed for a test of support at $1600/ounce; failure would offer a target of $1500*. In the long term, the primary trend remains up and breakout above $1700 would signal an advance to $1900.
* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500
Amex Gold Bugs index ($HUI) is headed for a test of primary support at 500 on the weekly chart. Failure would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 400* — and warn of a similar reversal for spot gold. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum slipped below zero to strengthen the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 500 – ( 600 – 500 ) = 400
The US Dollar Index is retracing to test support at 76.00. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and offer a target of 84.00* for the next advance. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84
Spot gold is testing the declining trendline and resistance at $1700/ounce. Respect would warn of a decline to test $1500*. The primary trend remains upward and will resume if the Fed introduces further quantitative easing in the months ahead.
* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500
The US Dollar Index broke out of its trend channel, warning of a correction back to 76 on the daily chart. Respect of 76 — or 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line — would confirm the primary up-trend and offer a target of 84*.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84
Spot gold rallied as the dollar weakened and is testing its descending trendline and resistance at $1700/ounce. Respect would signal a decline to $1500*, while upward breakout would indicate that the correction has weakened but not necessarily ended.
* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500
Spot gold is testing support at $1600/ounce, but the primary trend remains upward. Expect a rally to the declining trendline. Breakout above $1700 would indicate the correction is weakening, while failure of support would test $1500*.
* Target calculation: 1700 – ( 1900 – 1700 ) = 1500
Amex Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is testing primary support at 500. Failure of support would warn of a reversal in the primary trend and would be a bearish sign for spot metal prices.
