Tag: Spot Gold

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Gold breaks key support level

A monthly chart of Gold shows the breach of support at $1200/ounce, offering a long-term target of $1000*. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal. Retracement that respects the new resistance level at $1200 would confirm. Recovery above 1200 is unlikely.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Crude Oil

Crude is also falling — in response to the rising Dollar as well as expanding supply. The long-term target for Brent crude is $60*.

Brent Crude

* Target calculation: 90 – ( 120 – 90 ) = 60

…And $50/barrel for Nymex Light Crude. Follow-through below $75 would confirm the down-trend.

Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 80 – ( 110 – 80 ) = 50

Commodities

Copper is below its 2011 low of $6800/tonne, reflecting weak demand from China. Follow-through below $6600 would confirm a primary down-trend.

Copper

Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index has already broken support at 125, suggesting a test of its 2009 low at 100.

Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index

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Gold breaks support

Gold broke support at $1200/$1180 per ounce, signaling another (primary) decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthens the signal. The long-term target is $1000*. Recovery above 1200 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

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Gold breaks support

Gold broke support at $1200/$1180 per ounce, signaling another (primary) decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero strengthens the signal. The long-term target is $1000*. Recovery above 1200 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

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Gold – further falls likely

Low interest rates increase demand for gold by lowering the carrying cost. A rising dollar, however, has the opposite effect.

Gold respected resistance at $1250/ounce, confirming the primary down-trend. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero strengthens the signal. Breach of primary support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1000*. Recovery above 1250 is unlikely, but would test the descending trendline around $1300.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, fell sharply since breaching long-term support at 190. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) signals a strong primary decline. Bearish for gold.

Gold Bugs Index

The price of gold adjusted for inflation (gold/CPI) remains relatively high and further falls are likely.

Gold adjusted for CPI

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Gold Bugs and Silver warn of further weakness

Low interest rates strengthen demand for gold as they reduce the carrying cost. A rising dollar, however, would reduce demand.

Gold encountered stubborn resistance at $1250/ounce. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal. Breach of primary support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1000*. Recovery above $1250 is unlikely, but would test the descending trendline around $1300.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, broke long-term support at 190, signaling another primary decline. Gold is likely to follow.

Gold Bugs Index

Silver failed to rally in concert with gold, instead consolidating in a narrow range which suggests further weakness. Another bearish sign for gold.

Silver

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Bears eye gold

Gold is testing resistance at $1250/ounce after a two-week retracement. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) continues to indicate a primary down-trend. Respect of resistance at $1250 would confirm this. And breach of primary support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1000*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Silver has already broken long-term support, signaling another primary decline. Gold is likely to follow.

Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is also testing long-term support (at 190). Breach of support would strengthen the bear signal for gold.

Gold Bugs Index

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Gold finds support

Gold rallied off support at $1180 and is likely to test $1250/ounce. But the primary trend, as indicated by 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero), remains down. Respect of resistance at $1250 would confirm this. Breach of primary support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1000*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Silver is also in a primary down-trend, retracing to test the new resistance level at $18.50/$19.00 per ounce. Respect would confirm the target of $15.50/ounce*.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 18.5 – ( 21.5 – 18.5 ) = 15.5

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Gold breaks support

Spot gold broke support at $1200/ounce, warning of a primary down-trend to test $1000*. Follow-through below $1180 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already signals a primary down-trend.

S&P 500 VIX

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Spot silver has already broken primary support and gold is expected to follow.

S&P 500 VIX

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Gold threatens four-year low

Gold & Silver

Silver broke long-term support at $18.50 per ounce, offering a target of $15.50/ounce*. First, expect retracement to respect the new resistance level. Gold is likely to follow Silver to a new four-year low.

Spot Silver

* Target calculation: 18.5 – ( 21.5 – 18.5 ) = 15.5

Gold respected the new resistance level at $1240/ounce and is now testing $1200. Follow-through below $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1000*, while respect would suggest another rally to $1240. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, further strengthens the bear signal.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Gold Bugs Index (representing un-hedged gold stocks) is also testing long-term support. Breach of support at 200 would strengthen the bear signal for Gold.

Gold Bugs Index

Interest Rates and the Dollar

Rising Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar both add downward pressure to Gold. Higher interest rates increase the carrying cost of gold, while the Dollar competes with Gold both as a safe haven and as an appreciating asset (against other currencies).

The Dollar Index broke through resistance at the 2013 high of 84.75. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum, above zero, signals a primary up-trend. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect is likely and would offer a long-term target of 89*. Reversal below 84.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89.00

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes respected resistance at 2.65 percent and is retracing to test support at 2.50. Follow-through above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.00, but 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to suggest a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 2.50 would indicate another test of primary support at 2.30.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.30 – ( 2.60 – 2.30 ) = 2.00

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Gold and silver fall

Gold respected the new resistance level at $1240 after a brief retracement, confirming a primary down-trend. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the bear signal. Expect further support at $1200/ounce, breach would add further confirmation.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Silver is testing primary support at $18.50 per ounce. Breach of support would signal a down-trend and strengthen the bear signal for gold. Respect is unlikely, but would suggest further consolidation.

Spot Silver

Interest Rates and the Dollar

A rising Dollar and rising Treasury yields both put downward pressure on gold.

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at the 2013 high of 84.50. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Reversal below 81.50 is most unlikely. Upward breakout would offer a long-term target of 89*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 79 ) = 89.00

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke resistance at 2.50 percent and is now consolidating at 2.60. Follow-through above 2.65 would signal an advance to 3.00. Respect would signal a decline to 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero would suggest a primary up-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.65 + ( 2.65 – 2.30 ) = 3.00

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