Tag: Spot Gold

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Gold weakens as interest rates rise

Interest rates are climbing steeply as the market anticipates more inflationary policies under a Trump presidency. 10-Year Treasury yields broke through 2.0 percent and are testing resistance at 2.50. Penetration of the descending trendline would warn that the long-term primary down-trend is weakening, signaling a test of 3.0 percent. Breakout above 3.0 is still some way off but would signal the end of the almost 30-year secular down-trend in Treasury and bond yields.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan has fallen sharply in response to rising interest rates, with the Dollar headed for a test of resistance at 7.0 Yuan (USDCNY).

USDCNY

Gold responded to rising interest rate expectations with a test of primary support at $1200. Narrow consolidation is a bearish sign, as is reversal of 13-week Momentum below zero. Breach of primary support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold

In the long-term, higher inflation and a weakening Yuan could both fuel demand for gold as a store of value. But the medium-term outlook is bearish.

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Gold: Right for the wrong reasons

Last week I said that the Trump rally in gold was unlikely to last. That proved correct, but not for the reasons I envisaged.

Donald Trump surprised pollsters and the establishment, including many conservatives who were doubtful of his ability to hold office, with his ability to channel the anger of average Americans towards the entrenched establishment. And towards Hillary Clinton who represented the status quo.

Trump’s statesman-like, conciliatory acceptance speech also surprised many and has restored confidence in financial markets.

Spot Gold

Gold retreated from resistance at $1300/ounce and is headed for a test of primary support at $1200. Breach of primary support would signal a primary down-trend with an immediate target of $1050/ounce. But expect volatility to remain high until Trump has announced his appointees and has set a clear direction for his presidency. There may still be further surprises in store.

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Gold: “Trump rally” unlikely to last

Gold reacted with urgency to the news that Donald Trump was closing on Hillary Clinton in the polls. After a lackluster start the rally gained new energy in the last week, with the yellow metal climbing to test resistance at $1300/ounce.

Spot Gold

Experienced pollsters seem to think that Trump’s gains are too little and too late. According to GOP pollster Whit Ayres, in this PBS Newshour interview, Trump has about the same chance of winning as drawing an inside straight in poker. “He has spent his entire campaign preaching to the converted rather than reaching out to undecided voters….”

Unless there is an upset in next week’s election, I expect gold to respect resistance at $1300/ounce, followed by a test of primary support at $1200.

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Gold: Further weakness likely

US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield breaking through 1.80 percent to signal a test of 2.0 percent. Further rises are likely on the back of stronger GDP figures for the last quarter.

10-year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan continues to depreciate against the Dollar in anticipation of another rate rise from the Fed.

USDCNY

Spot gold displays a weak retracement off support at $1250/ounce, with short candles indicating a lack of conviction. Another primary decline is likely and would test primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index respected the descending trendline, suggesting another decline. Reversal below 4300 would confirm, offering a target of 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold selling pressure continues

Selling pressure on gold continues, with the SPDR Gold [GLD] ETF consolidating in a bearish narrow band above support at 119. Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Continuation of the down-trend is likely and breach of 119 would signal another decline.

SPDR Gold

Spot gold displays a similar narrow consolidation at $1250/ounce. Continuation is likely and would test primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index recovered above resistance at 4500 but has so far respected the descending trendline. Respect is likely and reversal below 4300 would signal a decline to 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold: The importance of $1200/ounce

Interest rates are rising, driving gold lower. Long-term Treasury yields are heading for a test of resistance at 2.0 percent but a lot depends on continued stability in financial markets.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan continues its devaluation against the Dollar. Any sharp movements would spur global instability and increase demand for gold. But at present Dollar appreciation proceeds at a measured pace.

USDCNY

Selling pressure on gold has increased, reflected by the steep fall of Twiggs Money Flow on the SPDR Gold [GLD] ETF. A larger (TMF) peak near zero would warn of a long-term sell-off.

SPDR Gold

Spot gold has paused in its descent, with a short candle on the weekly chart reflecting short-term support at $1250/ounce, but expect a test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

A long-term monthly chart of gold reflects the importance of support at $1200. The high of 2009, the lows of 2013, and the recent lows in April and June, all reinforce strength at $1200. Breach of this level would signal a long-term down-trend.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index retraced to test resistance at 4500 after the recent breakout. Respect is likely and would signal decline to 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold breaches $1300/ounce

Spot gold broke support at $1300/ounce warning of a test of primary support at $1200. The up-trend has lost momentum, reflected by penetration of the rising trendline, but consolidation above $1200 would suggest that the trend is intact. Breach of $1200 is now as likely, however, and would warn of a test of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index is testing support at 4500. Breach is likely and would warn of a primary down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold loses direction

Inflationary pressures are low, Yuan depreciation is gradual, Europe looks like it will ‘muddle through’ on Brexit and Hillary Clinton is favorite to win the November election. No sudden shocks to spark a rally in Gold, with the spot metal consolidating in a narrow range above $1300/ounce. But life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get. (Forrest Gump – 1994).

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1375 + ( 1375 – 1300 ) = 1450

Short retracement indicates that support at $1300/ounce is strong. Breakout above $1350 would signal a fresh advance, with a target of $1450*. Breach of support is less likely but would warn of a test of primary support at $1200/ounce.

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OPEC deal a fake

OPEC announced an agreement to cut production — to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels per day from current levels of 33.2 million barrels — without agreement as to which members will bear the brunt of the production cuts. FGE Chairman Fereidun Fesharaki calls this “a fake deal” and explains that OPEC could not afford to come away from Algiers empty-handed.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000555509

Nymex Light Crude rallied to $48/barrel and looks set to test resistance at $50. Breakout above $50 would signal a primary up-trend but respect is more likely, once the market gets past the headlines, and would suggest further consolidation between $40 and $50.

Nymex Light Crude

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Gold respects support

10-Year Treasury yields are retracing to test the recent support level at 1.60 percent but the trend remains upward.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan is easing against the US Dollar, with USDCNY in a gradual up-trend as the PBOC manages the decline in order to conserve foreign reserves. This is likely to alleviate immediate selling pressure on the Yuan, both from capital flight and borrowers covering on Dollar-denominated loans.

USDCNY

Spot gold respected support at $1300/ounce. Breakout above the falling wedge (and resistance at $1350) would signal another advance.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1375 + ( 1375 – 1300 ) = 1450

Rising interest rates and low inflation are bearish for gold but uncertainty over US elections, Europe/Brexit, and the path of the Chinese economy contribute to bullish sentiment.

Gold stocks serve as a useful counter-balance to growth stocks in a portfolio. If there are positive outcomes and a return to economic stability, growth stocks will do well and gold is likely to underperform. If there is instability and growth stocks do poorly, gold stocks are likely to outperform.

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