The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, and the indicator on the right reflects the current stock market valuation. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks because market valuations are high; however, we recommend exercising caution when adding new positions.
Bull/Bear Market
The Bull/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead, with three of five indicators signaling risk-off.
Continued unemployment claims increased to 1.914 million on December 27, up more than 500K since their June 2022 low of 1.349 million. However, the December unemployment rate of 4.4% remains below the 5.0% threshold typically associated with a recession.
Heavy truck sales are trending lower, with the 12-month moving average falling to 34K units in December. The decline of more than 10% from the October 2023 high of 43K is typical of a recession and signals risk-off.
Employment in cyclical sectors — manufacturing, construction, transportation, and warehousing — represents only 17% of total nonfarm employment in the US, but typically accounts for most job losses during a recession. The decline of 164K from its February 2025 peak indicates that the economy is slowing, and a drop of 300K would signal risk-off.
Stock Pricing
Stock pricing increased to 98.34 percent from 98.16 percent last week, close to the October high of 98.66, compared to a low of 95.04 percent in April. The extreme pricing warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.
We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.
The S&P 500 Forward Price-Earnings at 24.3 is high relative to its 50-year moving average of 16.4. In the past 125 years, the current peak has been exceeded only by the 2000 Dotcom bubble.
Conclusion
The bull-bear indicator at 40% warns of a bear market ahead, while extreme price levels increase the risk of a significant drawdown.
Acknowledgments
- Prof. Robert Shiller: CAPE 10 Data
- S&P Global: S&P 500 Sales and Earnings Estimates
- University of Michigan: Survey of Consumers
- Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
- Bureau for Economic Analysis: Motor Vehicles Data
Notes
- See Managing Risk to learn more.
- See Bull-Bear and Stock Valuation for more on our composite market indicators.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
