Tag: Shanghai Composite Index

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A tale of two economies

Stock markets in Western Europe and Asia are rallying on the strength of falling oil prices, joining the US in a bull trend. But primary producers, largely dependent on commodity exports, are likely to suffer as a result of falling prices. Australia is no exception.

The S&P 500 continues a primary advance. A conservative target would be 2200*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1800 ) = 2200

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at its earlier high of 10000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline suggests medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above resistance would offer a conservative target of 11000*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The Footsie is also testing long-term resistance on the monthly chart — at 6900/7000. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure, but resistance at the December 1999 high is likely to be solid. Reversal below 6500 remains unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index cleared resistance at 2440/2500, signaling a primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure. I remain wary of China. The recent rate-cut by the PBOC is cause for concern, not jubilation.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 – 2000 ) = 3000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for long-term resistance at 18000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above the zero line indicates long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 16500 is unlikely.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

The ASX 200 is undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a test of 5000.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

Posted on

A tale of two economies

Stock markets in Western Europe and Asia are rallying on the strength of falling oil prices, joining the US in a bull trend. But primary producers, largely dependent on commodity exports, are likely to suffer as a result of falling prices. Australia is no exception.

The S&P 500 continues a primary advance. A conservative target would be 2200*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1800 ) = 2200

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at its earlier high of 10000. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline suggests medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above resistance would offer a conservative target of 11000*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a primary down-trend.

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

The Footsie is also testing long-term resistance on the monthly chart — at 6900/7000. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure, but resistance at the December 1999 high is likely to be solid. Reversal below 6500 remains unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index cleared resistance at 2440/2500, signaling a primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure. I remain wary of China. The recent rate-cut by the PBOC is cause for concern, not jubilation.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 – 2000 ) = 3000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for long-term resistance at 18000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above the zero line indicates long-term buying pressure. Reversal below 16500 is unlikely.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

The ASX 200 is undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a test of 5000.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

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Markets rebound except for ASX

  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX Energy and Materials sectors under pressure

The S&P 500 broke through the upper border of its broadening wedge formation, signaling a fresh advance with a target of 2300*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

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  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX Energy and Materials sectors under pressure

The S&P 500 broke through the upper border of its broadening wedge formation, signaling a fresh advance with a target of 2300*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1800 ) = 2300

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9400/9500, signaling another test of 10000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow refllects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also headed for a test of its long-term high at 6900/6950. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6500 is unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is weaker, undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero. Penetration of primary support at 5120/5150, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

ASX 200 Materials (15.7%) and Energy (6.0%) sectors have commenced a down-trend. This is in sharp contrast to the Financial (46.2% including REITs) and Health Care (5.2%) sectors which continue in a healthy up-trend. It is possible for the first two sectors, with a combined weighting of 21.7%, to reverse the broad index, but is not likely unless the contagion spreads to the Industrial and Financial sectors. Increased risk-weightings for home mortgages and stronger capital ratios for major banks are likely recommendations of the Murray inquiry. These will improve the long-term strength and growth prospects for Financials, but a negative reaction in the short-term could tip the sector into a down-trend.

ASX 200 sectorstitle=”S&P 500 Index” alt=”S&P 500 Index” src=”https://www.incrediblecharts.com/images/2014/2014-11-24-spx.png” />

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1800 ) = 2300

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9400/9500, signaling another test of 10000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow refllects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also headed for a test of its long-term high at 6900/6950. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6500 is unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is weaker, undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero. Penetration of primary support at 5120/5150, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

ASX 200 Materials (15.7%) and Energy (6.0%) sectors have commenced a down-trend. This is in sharp contrast to the Financial (46.2% including REITs) and Health Care (5.2%) sectors which continue in a healthy up-trend. It is possible for the first two sectors, with a combined weighting of 21.7%, to reverse the broad index, but is not likely unless the contagion spreads to the Industrial and Financial sectors. Increased risk-weightings for home mortgages and stronger capital ratios for major banks are likely recommendations of the Murray inquiry. These will improve the long-term strength and growth prospects for Financials, but a negative reaction in the short-term could tip the sector into a down-trend.

ASX 200 sectors

Posted on

Markets rebound except for ASX

  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX Energy and Materials sectors under pressure

The S&P 500 broke through the upper border of its broadening wedge formation, signaling a fresh advance with a target of 2300*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying support. Reversal below 2000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1800 ) = 2300

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9400/9500, signaling another test of 10000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow refllects medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 9400 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 9000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie is also headed for a test of its long-term high at 6900/6950. The sharp rise on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 6500 is unlikely.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling a fresh advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respect of its rising trendline confirms (medium-term) buying pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 is weaker, undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — as would a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero. Penetration of primary support at 5120/5150, however, would signal a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

ASX 200 Materials (15.7%) and Energy (6.0%) sectors have commenced a down-trend. This is in sharp contrast to the Financial (46.2% including REITs) and Health Care (5.2%) sectors which continue in a healthy up-trend. It is possible for the first two sectors, with a combined weighting of 21.7%, to reverse the broad index, but is not likely unless the contagion spreads to the Industrial and Financial sectors. Increased risk-weightings for home mortgages and stronger capital ratios for major banks are likely recommendations of the Murray inquiry. These will improve the long-term strength and growth prospects for Financials, but a negative reaction in the short-term could tip the sector into a down-trend.

ASX 200 sectors

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ASX under pressure

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2050, the upper bound of the broadening wedge. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 2250*. Reversal below 2000 is less likely, but would warn of another correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1850 ) = 2250

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing resistance at 3140. Breakout would indicate an advance to 3300. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero suggests indecision. Respect of 3140 would test primary support at 3000.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

The Shanghai Composite Index retraced to test support at 2440, while declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Reversal below the rising trendline at 2400 would warn of a correction, while respect would suggest trend strength.

Shanghai Composite

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is weaker. Reversal below 23000 would warn of a test of primary support at 21200/21500. Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) reversal below zero would also be a strong bear signal.

HSI

The ASX 200 is undergoing another correction. Respect of support at 5250/5300 would indicate reasonable trend strength, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure. With both Energy and Metals & Mining sectors under pressure, a test of primary support at 5120/5150 is likely.

ASX 200

The Aussie Dollar is also falling, having reversed below primary support at $0.8650 to signal a decline to $0.80*.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

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A quiet week in the markets

  • US stocks continue their bull-trend
  • European stocks strengthen
  • China likewise
  • ASX retraces to test support

The S&P 500 is testing the upper border of a broadening wedge formation. Retracement that respects support at 2000 would enhance the bull signal and offer a target of 2280*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buyers are in control. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2040 + ( 2040 – 1820 ) = 2280

Dow Jones Industrial Average has already broken above a similar broadening wedge formation, offering a long-term target of 19000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 16000 ) = 19000

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to reflect low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 9400/9500, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak. Reversal of TMF below zero would warn of another correction. Reversal below 9000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Follow-through above 9500 is less likely, but would suggest another test of 10000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie proved more robust, breaking resistance, at 6500/6560 to signal a test of 6900. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is rising strongly, signaling buyers are in control.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at its 2013 high of 2440, signaling an advance. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below its rising trendline, however, would warn of (medium-term) selling pressure.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

The ASX 200 retraced to test support at 5440/5450. Respect would signal another test of the August high at 5650/5660. Failure of support would indicate a test of 5250/5300 and a weaker up-trend. Reversal below 5250 remains unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal long-term buying pressure.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

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S&P 500 bullish but Europe and China encounter resistance

Retracement of the S&P 500 respected its new support level at 2000, confirming a primary advance with a target of 2150*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the declining trendline indicates buyers are back in control. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Germany’s DAX found resistance at 9400 and retracement to test support at 9000 is likely. Failure of the former primary support level at 8900/9000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also indicate that sellers dominate.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9000 – ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 8000

The Footsie also encountered resistance, at 6500/6560. Respect of this level would warn of a primary down-trend, but rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure.

FTSE 100

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2013 high of 2440. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of (medium-term) resistance.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also found resistance, at 24000. Reversal below 23000 would confirm a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal.

Hang Seng Index

The ASX 200, influenced by both the US and China, is testing resistance at 5550. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of 5650/5660. Reversal below 5380/5400 is less likely, but would warn that sellers have resumed control. I have lowered the target to 6000* because of constant back-filling in recent months.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

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Asia: Governor Kuroda bets on QE

Aggressive asset purchases by the Bank of Japan shows Governor Kuroda’s willingness to back his QE policy to the hilt. The Yen has weakened significantly against the Dollar over the last two years and this trend is likely to continue.

USDJPY

The Nikkei 225 surged through 16300, signaling a fresh advance. The long-term target is 18000*. Reversal below 16000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is testing resistance at 24000. Reversal below 23000 would warn of a primary down-trend. Breach of 21200 would confirm. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Follow-through above 25000 is unlikely, but would signal another primary advance.

Hang Seng Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index respected support at 2250, strengthening the bull signal. Follow-through above 2450 would confirm a primary up-trend. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow remains in an up-trend, signaling medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 2250 is unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 + ( 2250 – 2000 ) = 2500

India’s Sensex continues in a primary up-trend, testing resistance at 28000. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Short retracements rather than stronger corrections also suggest buying pressure. Breakout above 28000 would indicate an advance to 29000. The index is becoming over-extended, but may remain so for some time. Reversal below 27000 and the secondary trendline is less likely, but would indicate a correction to the primary trendline around 25000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 27000 + ( 27000 – 26000 ) = 28000

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Dow and S&P 500 make new highs

  • US stocks have reaffirmed their bull market
  • European stocks are recovering
  • China and Japan signal up-trends
  • ASX is rising
  • Gold is falling

The new reporting season is under way and fund managers are now looking for opportunities rather than selling off under-performers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high, above 17300, signaling a primary advance. Reversal below 17000 and the rising trendline is most unlikely, but would warn of another correction. Target for the advance is 18000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 16000 ) = 18000

The S&P 500 similarly made a new high, signaling a fresh advance. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2150*. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 14 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 continues to advance above its former primary support level at 3000. Long tails on the weekly candlesticks and recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicate buying pressure. Expect another test of 3300. Reversal below 3000 is less likely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 2700

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rallied above its recent high at 2400, confirming a primary up-trend. Target for the new advance is 2500*. and the rising trendline, warning of a correction. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure; completion of a trough high above zero would signal trend strength.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at 16300, signaling an advance with a long-term target of 18000*. Reversal below 16000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5660. Brief retracement at 5440 and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) both indicate medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 5440 is unlikely, but would indicate a test of 5250. I have lowered the target to 6000* because of constant back-filling in recent months.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

Posted on

Dow and S&P 500 make new highs

  • US stocks have reaffirmed their bull market
  • European stocks are recovering
  • China and Japan signal up-trends
  • ASX is rising

The new reporting season is under way and fund managers are now looking for opportunities rather than selling off under-performers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new high, above 17300, signaling a primary advance. Reversal below 17000 and the rising trendline is most unlikely, but would warn of another correction. Target for the advance is 18000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 17000 + ( 17000 – 16000 ) = 18000

The S&P 500 similarly made a new high, signaling a fresh advance. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 2150*. Reversal below 2000 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would signal another correction.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 2000 + ( 2000 – 1850 ) = 2150

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 14 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 continues to advance above its former primary support level at 3000. Long tails on the weekly candlesticks and recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicate buying pressure. Expect another test of 3300. Reversal below 3000 is less likely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 – ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 2700

China’s Shanghai Composite Index rallied above its recent high at 2400, confirming a primary up-trend. Target for the new advance is 2500*. and the rising trendline, warning of a correction. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough (above zero) indicates medium-term buying pressure; completion of a trough high above zero would signal trend strength.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke resistance at 16300, signaling an advance with a long-term target of 18000*. Reversal below 16000 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 16000 + ( 16000 – 14000 ) = 18000

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5660. Brief retracement at 5440 and rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (above zero) both indicate medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 5440 is unlikely, but would indicate a test of 5250. I have lowered the target to 6000* because of constant back-filling in recent months.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5650 + ( 5650 – 5300 ) = 6000

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