Tag: Shanghai Composite Index

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Gold breaks support

Spot gold broke support at $1300/ounce, indicating a test of the primary level at $1200/ounce. Follow-through below $1270 would confirm. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would be a strong bear signal.

Spot Gold

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is consolidating below the recent primary support level of 80.50. Follow-through below 80 would confirm the primary down-trend. The 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak at zero also signals a down-trend. Recovery above 81 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

A falling dollar would boost gold prices.

Dollar Index

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes found short-term support at 2.60 percent. Recovery above 2.70 would signal an advance to 3.40 percent. Failure of support, however, would warn of a test of 2.40 percent.

Rising treasury yields would raise the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, exerting downward pressure on prices.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.60 ) = 3.40

Crude Oil

Nymex light crude broke support at $103/barrel and its rising trendline, warning of a test of medium-term support at $98/barrel. The wider spread with Brent Crude is an indication of continuing tensions over Syria which threaten supply.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodities

Commodity prices continue to fall, with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index headed for another test of primary support at 124 despite a resilient Shanghai Composite Index. Recovery above 130 is unlikely at present, but would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Japan & China steady, ASX threatens correction

Dow Jones Japan index chose to ignore the poker game on Capitol Hill in Washington today, following Friday’s sharp fall. Breach of the rising trendline, however, warns of a correction.

Dow Jones Japan index

A weekly chart of the Nikkei 225 shows short-term support at 14300, with resistance at 15000. Failure of support would test the primary level at 13200, while upward breakout remains as likely and would signal an advance to 17000*. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal; decline below 15% would strengthen the signal. Failure of support at 13200 would confirm.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 13000 ) = 17000

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing short-term support at 2150. Failure of support would penetrate the rising trendline, warning of another correction. A sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure. Respect of 2150, or even 2100, would signal another test of resistance at 2250. Follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is reversing. But breach of 2100 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex continues on a downward path toward primary support. Penetration of the former rising trendline would increase the likelihood of a test. Breakout below 18500 would signal a primary down-trend, while follow-through below 18000 would confirm. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero is unlikely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

The ASX 200 retreated below its May high of 5250 for a second time; a bearish sign. Penetration of the rising trendline also warns of a correction. Breach of short-term support at 5200 would confirm.

ASX 200

There appears little danger of a primary reversal at this stage, with primary support at 4650, but 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) also displays a bearish divergence, indicating selling pressure. Long-term target for an advance would be 5850*, but we are likely to see a correction first.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Asia recovery helps ASX 200

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ran into resistance at 2250 and is likely to retrace to support at 2100. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 2100 would be bullish, while recovery above 2250 would penetrate the descending trendline, suggesting that the primary down-trend is reversing. A primary up-trend would signal increased demand for resources and give a significant boost to the ASX. Failure of 2100 is unlikely, but would indicate a test of primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 15000. Breakout would signal an advance to 17500*. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of a reversal. Penetration of the rising trendline would also suggest the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Failure of support at 13200 remains unlikely, but would signal a reversal.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

India’s Sensex retreated below resistance at 20500. Tall shadows and long tails on the weekly chart indicate excessive volatility. Reversal below last week’s low at 19500 would warn of another down-swing. Breach of the rising trendline would strengthen the reversal warning. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero, however, would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

ASX 200 recovery above the May high of 5250 indicates a primary advance. Follow-through above 5300 would confirm. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Long-term target for an advance would be 5850*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Gold eases as bond yields rise

Spot gold encountered short-term support at $1300/ounce, but the correction is far from over. A rally would be likely to encounter resistance at $1350, while failure would test $1275. Respect of $1275 would be bullish, but the primary trend is downward and another test of support at $1200 remains likely. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, while below zero, strengthens the signal.

Spot Gold

Rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, driving gold prices down. The yield on ten-year notes is testing support at 2.70 percent, but respect is likely, offering a medium-term target of 3.30 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.70 ) = 3.30

Crude Oil

Nymex and Brent crude are easing as prospect of US intervention in Syria fades. Breach of support at $103/barrel — and the rising trendline — is unlikely, but would test medium-term support at $98/barrel.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

A retreating Shanghai Composite Index followed commodity prices lower, with another test of primary support at 124 by Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index more likely. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to indicate a (primary) down-trend and another peak below the line would strengthen the signal. Recovery above 130, however, would confirm the earlier double-bottom reversal and a primary up-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

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Asian markets and ASX cautious

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index broke its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. Breakout above 15000 would signal a primary advance to 18000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 30% would support this.  Reversal below 13000 is now unlikely.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite breached its descending trendline at 2200, indicating the down-trend is over. A long wick (or shadow) on last week’s candle, however, suggests resistance — and reversal below 2150 and the rising trendline would warn of a bull trap. But rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to signal medium-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 2350 is likely, and would indicate a test of 2450.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex also displays a long wick on last week’s candle. Expect strong resistance at 20500. Respect would indicate another test of primary support at 18000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure, but long-term direction is unclear.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is cautiously testing long-term resistance at 5250. Europe is bullish and Asian markets are rising, but the Dow and S&P 500 remain mildly bearish. Respect of resistance at 5250, indicated by reversal below 5150 and the rising trendline, would present another bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating long-term selling pressure. Breakout above 5250, however, would signal another primary advance, with a long-term target of 5750*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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US & China lift ASX

The S&P 500 rallied strongly this week despite a weak bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of selling pressure. Recovery above 1700 would indicate another advance, while a new August high on Twiggs Money Flow would further strengthen the signal, offering a target of 1850*. Reversal below 1630 is unlikely, but would re-test primary support at 1560.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1850

Dow Jones Industrial Average displayed a stronger bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, increasing the likelihood of reversal below 14800. But positive sentiment is growing and recovery above 15650 now seems as likely.
S&P 500 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite penetrated resistance at 2200 and the descending trendline, suggesting that the down-trend is ending. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another correction to test primary support at 1950, but breach of support is now less likely. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure; a trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5250, buoyed by positive sentiment in China and the US. Breakout would suggest a primary advance, but a lower peak on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would continue to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 5150 remains as likely, and would test medium-term support at 4900/5000.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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Asian markets lift the ASX 200

Dow Jones Japan Index jumped today on Tokyo’s success in its bid for the 2020 Olympics. Follow-through above the descending trendline indicates the correction is over and a test of 81.50 likely. Upward breakout would signal continuation of the primary up-trend. Reversal below 73.50 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 69.00.

Dow Jones Japan Index

China’s Shanghai Composite breached resistance at 2100, indicating a test of the descending trendline at 2200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. The primary trend remains down, however, and reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another test of primary support at 1950. In the longer-term, breakout above the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend has ended.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex rallied sharply after finding support at 18000/18500. Follow-through above 19500 would confirm another test of resistance at 20500.  Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 18500 is unlikely, but would signal a primary down-trend.

BSE Sensex Index

Rising Asian markets, especially China, are lifting the ASX 200, but weakness on the Dow or S&P 500 could reverse this. Recovery above 5150 and respect of the rising trendline suggest another test of resistance at 5250. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short/medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would signal another primary advance. Respect of resistance remains as likely, however, and reversal below 5000 would warn of another test of primary support at 4650.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

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Global markets bearish but ASX, India find support

US markets are closed for Labor Day. The S&P 500 ended last week testing its rising trendline and support at 1630. Breach would reinforce the bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, indicating a test of primary support at 1560. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely at present, but would warn the correction is ending. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

VIX below 20 suggests a bull market.
S&P 500 Index

The FTSE 100 closed above initial resistance at 6500. Follow-through would suggest the correction is over and another attempt at 6750 likely. Strong bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of selling pressure and breakout above 6750 is unlikely. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a test of primary support at 6000.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX encountered stubborn resistance at 8500. Reversal below 8000 would test primary support at 7600, while breakout above 8500 would offer a target of 9000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8400 + ( 8400 – 7800 ) = 9000

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered above 13500 and follow-through above the descending trendline would suggest the correction is over and another test of resistance at 15000 is likely. Reversal below 13200, however, would indicate a test of primary support at 12500. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite is testing resistance at 2100/2120. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is ending.

Shanghai Composite Index

India’s Sensex encountered strong support at 18000/18500, evidenced by the long tails on the weekly candles and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow.  Expect another test of resistance at 20500. Follow-through above 19000 would strengthen the signal.

BSE Sensex Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of 5250 after breaking resistance at 5150. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5250 would be a welcome sign, suggesting another primary advance, but respect of resistance and a lower peak on Twiggs Money Flow would warn of a reversal.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4750 ) = 5750

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Commodities rise as the Dollar falls

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 80.50. Bearish divergence on weekly Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend and breach of support at 80.50 would confirm. Respect of support and recovery above 82, however, would indicate an up-swing to 84.50.
Dollar Index

Crude Oil

Nymex WTI light crude broke resistance at $108/barrel, as the Syrian conflict threatens to escalate. Expect an advance to $118/barrel*. Reversal below $108 is most unlikely, but would signal another test of the rising trendline. Brent crude similarly broke through $110, offering a target of $120.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

* Target calculation: 108 + ( 108 – 98 ) = 118

Commodities

Copper is headed for a test of $7500/tonne. Respect of resistance would indicate another test of long-term support at $6600/$6800. Upward breakout and penetration of the descending trendline would suggest the primary down-trend is ending, while breach of support at $6600 would signal continuation. Momentum oscillating mainly below zero still favors a down-trend.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index
The Shanghai Composite Index bear rally continues, causing a lift in commodity prices. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index completed a double-bottom reversal, with breakout above 130, offering a target of 135*. Penetration of the descending trendline also suggests the primary down-trend has ended.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Be cautious, however, as the Shanghai Composite faces resistance at 2150. Reversal below the rising trendline would warn of another primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 1950 is breached.
Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

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Global selling pressure

The S&P 500 Index broke medium-term support at 1650 and is headed for a test of the rising trendline. Respect would indicate the primary up-trend is intact, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. This is also evidenced by the marginal new high in August. A test of primary support at 1560 is likely. Breach would offer a target of 1400*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1700 – 1550 ) = 1400

Dow Jones Europe Index also displays marginal new highs in May and August. Penetration of the rising trendline indicates the up-trend is losing momentum — also indicated by bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Reversal below support at 290 would strengthen the warning, but only failure of support at 270 would signal a trend reversal.

DJ Europe Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index ran into strong resistance at 2100. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (below zero) warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 2050 would indicate another test of primary support at 1950, suggesting a decline to 1800*. Breakout above 2200 and the descending trendline is unlikely, but would signal that a bottom has formed.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 broke medium-term support at 13500. Follow-through below 13250 would indicate a correction to primary support at 12500. Penetration of the rising trendline suggests that the primary up-trend is losing momentum. Earlier bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also warns of a reversal. Recovery above the declining trendline is less likely, but would indicate the correction has ended.

Nikkei 225 Index

India’s Sensex broke primary support at 18500, following through below 18000 to remove any doubt. The primary trend has reversed after a triple top and now offers a target of 16500*. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow confirms selling pressure. Recovery above 18500 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18500 – ( 20500 – 18500 ) = 16500

The ASX 200 is consolidating in a broadening top around the 2010/2011 high of 5000. Correction to 4900 would be quite acceptable, garnering support for an advance to the upper border, but breach of 4900 would indicate a failed swing, warning of reversal to a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 4650 would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure; strengthened if the indicator reverses below zero. Respect of support at 5000 is less likely, despite the long tail on today’s candle, but would offer a target of 5300*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 5150 + ( 5150 – 5000 ) = 5300

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