European rally follows US lead

The S&P 500 Index penetrated its descending trendline, indicating the correction has ended. Follow-through above 1650 would signal a primary advance to 1800*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1680 + ( 1680 – 1560 ) = 1800

The FTSE 100 broke through medium-term resistance at 6400, confirming the correction has ended, after earlier penetrating its descending trendline. Follow-through above 6500 (from the March 2013 peak) would strengthen the signal, indicating an advance to 6900. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would also strengthen the signal. In the long term, breakout above 7000 would offer a target of 8000*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 8000. Breakout above that and the declining trendline would signal another primary advance, with a target of 9300*. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would indicate medium-term buying pressure. Respect of resistance and reversal below 7700 is less likely, but would warn of a test of prmary support at 7400.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

Italy’s MIB Index is consolidating below resistance at 16000. Penetration of the declining trendline suggests the correction is over. Breach of resistance would signal an advance to 18000.  Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above zero would strengthen the signal. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test primary support at 15000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 800 and its descending trendline, indicating the correction is over. We still need to watch the weak 21-day Twiggs Money Flow: a peak below zero would indicate selling pressure, but recovery above zero would suggest a fresh advance. Respect of the new support level at 800 would confirm an advance to 870. Reversal below 800, while unlikely, would warn of another test of primary support at 750.
FTSE 100 Index

Europe rallies despite broad selling pressure

The FTSE 100 respected its rising trendline and long-term support at 6000, indicating another test of 6750. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Retreat below 6000 would signal a primary reversal.

FTSE 100 Index

Germany’s DAX also signals strong selling pressure, but recovery above 8000 would suggest another primary advance. Continued respect of the long-term rising trendline reflects a healthy up-trend.
DAX Index

Italy’s MIB Index respected primary support at 15000. Follow-through above 15500 would indicate another test of 17500.  Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates healthy buying pressure.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index is edging lower, while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow falling below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Recovery above 800 would suggest another weak rally, while failure of support at 750/760 would offer a long-term target of the 2012 low at 600*.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

Europe: FTSE and European markets rising

The FTSE 100 broke out from its rising flag on the weekly chart and is headed for a test of resistance between 6800* (the high from 2007) and 7000 (from 1999). Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates strong buying pressure.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6400 + ( 6400 – 6000 ) = 6800

Italy’s MIB Index found support at 15500. Respect of zero by 13-week  Twiggs Money Flow would suggest another primary advance. Recovery above 17000 would confirm. Reversal below 15000, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.
FTSE MIB Index
Spain’s Madrid General Index displays buying pressure with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breakout above 900 would signal a primary advance to 1000*.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 800 ) = 1000

Germany’s DAX rallied to test resistance at the 2007 high of 8000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow still warns of selling pressure but breakout above 8000 would overcome this. Reversal below 7500 would indicate a correction to test the rising trendline — rather than a primary trend reversal.

DAX Index
The quarterly chart shows strong resistance between 8000 and 8200. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 10000*.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 5000 ) = 10000

Europe tests support

Today we look at the long-term view, with monthly charts. Germany’s Dax closed below 7200, warning of a correction to the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates buying pressure. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate a primary advance. Breakout above 7600 would confirm, offering a target of 8000*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7000+ ( 7000 – 6000 ) = 8000

Reversal of the Madrid General Index below 760 would warn of a correction. Respect of 700 would be bullish but a test of 600 is more likely. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero, while unlikely, would also be a bullish sign.

Madrid General Index

The FTSE 100 found resistance at 6000 and is likely to re-test the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates long-term buying pressure. Respect of the trendline would indicate another primary advance, while breakout above 6100 would offer a long-term target of 6750*. Penetration of the trendline is less likely, but would test primary support at 5250.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Europe: Still positive

Germany’s DAX found support at 7200. Respect would indicate another attempt at long-term resistance at 7500/7600. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout would signal a long-term advance to 8400*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7200 + ( 7200 – 6000 ) = 8400

Madrid General Index similarly found support at 770. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Respect of support would indicate a test of resistance at 900, while failure would retrace to 720.

Madrid General Index

France’s CAC-40 retraced to 3350. Respect would mean another test of 3600, while breach of the rising trendline would warn of a down-swing to test primary support at 2900.  A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would suggest a primary up-trend. Breakout above 3600 would confirm, offering a target of the 2011 high at 4100.

CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3000 ) = 4200

A daily chart of the FTSE 100 shows medium-term support at 5740. Follow-through above 5880 would indicate an attempt at primary resistance at 6000/6100. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate buying pressure, but the last (marginal) breakout above 5880 warns of strong resistance at 6000. Breakout above 6100 would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Europe rising

Madrid General Index continues to indicate strong buying pressure, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow rising steeply. Expect a test of resistance at 900.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 600 ) = 850

Germany’s DAX is testing long-term resistance at 7500/7600. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong buying pressure. Breakout would signal an advance to 8400*.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7200 + ( 7200 – 6000 ) = 8400

The FTSE 100 tests short-term support at 5860 on the daily chart. Shallow retracement suggests an advance to primary resistance at 6000/6100. Recovery above 5900 would strengthen the signal. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate buying pressure. Expect strong resistance at 6000, because of the number of previous peaks at this level, but breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

European buying pressure

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test support at 5700. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Respect of 5700 would signal an advance to 6100; expect strong resistance at that level because of the number of previous peaks. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Madrid General Index is consolidating above 720 after completing a double-bottom reversal. Follow-through above 760 would signal an advance to 900*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the reversal signal.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 750 + ( 750 – 600 ) = 900

Germany’s DAX shows strong buying pressure, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating high above zero. Consolidation or retracement below 7200 is likely, followed by an advance to 7600. Expect strong resistance at 7500/7600 because of the number of previous peaks.

DAX Index

European revival

Madrid General Index broke above 720 to complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of 840*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the reversal signal.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 600 ) = 840

Italian FTSE MIB Index also completed a double bottom reversal, offering a target of 16500*. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow again indicates buying pressure.

FTSE Italian MIB Index

* Target calculation: 14500 + ( 14500 – 12500 ) = 16500

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test of major resistance at 6000. Expect strong resistance between 6000 and 6100 because of the number of previous peaks at this level. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero suggests a primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Europe: Signs of a revival

Bullish divergence on Madrid General Index (13-week Twiggs Money Flow) indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 720 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of 840*. Penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 600 ) = 840

FTSE 100 broke resistance at 5750 and is headed for a test of 6000 on the weekly chart. The 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates a healthy primary up-trend. Expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous peaks at this level. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 6750*.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5250 ) = 6750

Europe and Footsie recovering

Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 720. Breakout would complete a double bottom, offering a target of 840*.  Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a resurgence, but we are some way off a recovery above zero which would signal a primary up-trend.

Madrid General Index

Dow Jones Europe Index displays a strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a (primary trend) reversal. Recovery above zero would strengthen the signal. Penetration of the descending trendline would suggest a test of resistance at 265.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is headed for a test  resistance at 6000. A trough at zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure but expect strong resistance at 6000 because of the number of previous reversals at this level.

FTSE 100 Index