Tag: Madrid General Index

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Europe: Out of the ashes

Deutsche Post AG (y_DPW.DE) serves as a bellwether for European markets, with subsidiary DHL couriers occupying a similar position to that of Fedex in US markets. DPW is testing resistance at €28.00 after a strong correction. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero and breakout above €28.00 would indicate another primary advance — a bullish sign for economic activity in the Eurozone.

Deutsche Post AG

* Target calculation: 28 + ( 28 – 22 ) = 34

Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, the DAX broke through resistance at 10000, signaling a fresh primary advance. A trough above zero on 13-Week Twiggs Momentum indicates continuation of the up-trend. The market is taking a positive view of expected quantitative easing (QE) by the European Central Bank (ECB).

DAX

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

France’s CAC-40 shows early signs of recovery, having broken through its descending trendline of recent months. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests resumption of the primary up-trend. Recovery above 4500 would strengthen the signal, while breakout above 4600 would confirm.

CAC-40

Italy’s MIB Index remains weak, with 13-week Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero. Respect of resistance is more likely, but breakout above 20000 would suggest a recovery.

MIB Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index also remains in the Doldrums, with declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero. Only recovery above 1100 would provide cause for optimism.

Madrid General Index

Decline of inflation below zero for the Eurozone has forced the hand of the ECB. Announcement of significant QE is imminent. Expansion of the money supply should help to indirectly support stock prices. Unfortunately the Swiss National Bank, which held vast reserves of Euros because of its informal peg at 1.20 EUR/CHF, faced a difficult choice. Either go “all-in” to support the peg, and place their entire credit standing in question, or cut their losses (rumored to be around $70 billion) and walk away with their reputation a little worse for wear, but intact. Faced with the choice they had, in my opinion they took the correct option.

EURCHF

On the other side of the Channel, the Footsie is testing resistance at 6650. Recovery above the descending trendline would suggest the down-trend is over, especially if accompanied by recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero. Strong resistance at 6900/7000 remains a major obstacle to a further advance.

FTSE 100

One final paragraph of advice: do not burn yourselves out. Be as I am — a reluctant enthusiast… a part-time crusader, a half-hearted fanatic. Save the other half of yourselves and your lives for pleasure and adventure. It is not enough to fight for the land; it is even more important to enjoy it. While you can. While it’s still here. So get out there and hunt and fish and mess around with your friends, ramble out yonder and explore the forests, climb the mountains, bag the peaks, run the rivers, breathe deep of that yet sweet and lucid air, sit quietly for a while and contemplate the precious stillness, the lovely, mysterious, and awesome space. Enjoy yourselves, keep your brain in your head and your head firmly attached to the body, the body active and alive, and I promise you this much; I promise you this one sweet victory over our enemies, over those desk-bound men and women with their hearts in a safe deposit box, and their eyes hypnotized by desk calculators. I promise you this: You will outlive the bastards.

~ Edward Abbey

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DAX leads European advance

Germany’s DAX broke through resistance at 9000, sharply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling strong medium-term buying pressure. Target for the current advance is 9500*. Reversal below 9000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline between 8000 and 8500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 is testing support at its 2009/2011 high of 3000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 3000 is likely and follow-through above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3500*.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Spain’s Madrid General Index found medium-term resistance at 1000. A correction to test support at 900 is likely, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow falling sharply. Respect of 900 would suggest a healthy primary up-trend. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would indicate the primary trend is weakening.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

The FTSE 100 is retracing to test support at 6600. Long tails indicate short-term buying pressure. Follow-through above 6800 would indicate an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure, but the specter of a long-term bearish divergence remains. Expect strong resistance at 7000. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

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Footsie breakout while Europe hesitates

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6700, indicating an advance to 7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 hesitated with a doji star above long-term resistance at 3000. Expect a test of the new support level, but rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to suggest a healthy up-trend. Penetration of the secondary trendline would warn of a correction to the primary trendline — around 2750.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Spain’s Madrid General Index warns of a correction, with an evening star accompanied by strong volume. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 1050*. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would indicate the up-trend is weakening.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

Germany’s DAX, however, is a lot more bullish. Respect of the new support level at 8500 offers a medium-term target of 9300*. Reversal below 8500 is now unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline at 8000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

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FTSE breaks primary support

The FTSE 100 broke support at 6400, signaling a primary down-trend. Penetration of the rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Expect a test of the June low at 6000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow highlights strong selling pressure; crossover to below zero would further strengthen the signal. Recovery above 6400 is unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX is a lot more bullish, testing the new support level at 8500. Respect would offer a medium-term target of 9300*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7500/7600.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

France’s CAC-40 is similarly testing new support at 4100. Recovery above its 2011 high of 4200 would offer a target of 4400*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at 3600.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4000 + ( 4000 – 3600 ) = 4400

Spain’s Madrid General Index is even stronger, with no hint of retracement while 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Retracement that respects support at 900 would confirm an advance to 1050*. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

Italy’s MIB Index broke through resistance at 17500/18000, signaling a primary advance to 20000*. Successive troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggest a strong primary up-trend. Reversal below 17500 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

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European markets retrace, but FTSE bearish

European markets are consolidating after recent gains with the exception of Italy, which is suffering from political instability, while the FTSE 100 displays persistent selling pressure.

The FTSE 100 is heading for a test of primary support at 6400, having broken medium-term support at 6500. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow after a lengthy period below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure; bearish divergence on the 13-week indicator also warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 6400 would signal a primary down-trend; respect is unlikely, but would suggest another test of 6700.

FTSE 100

Germany’s DAX retraced to the new support level at 8500. Respect would offer a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9400*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7600.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000 ; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7600 ) = 9400

France’s CAC-40 is similarly testing support at 4100. Recovery above its 2011 high of 4200 would offer an immediate target of 4300* and a long-term target of 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at 3600.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300 ; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Spain’s Madrid General Index displays healthy buying pressure on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Retracement that respects support at 900 would confirm a long-term advance to 1050*. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

Italy’s MIB Index is weaker, following a rift between Prime Minister Enrico Letta and his coalition partner, Silvio Berlusconi. Follow-through below the rising trendline would test support at 16500. Recovery above 18000, on the other hand, would signal a primary advance with a long-term target of 20000*.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

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Europe: Bullish except for FTSE

European markets continue to display healthy primary up-trends with the exception of the FTSE 100 which warns of selling pressure.

Germany’s DAX broke through medium-term resistance at 8500, offering a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9500*. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000 ; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

France’s CAC-40 is testing resistance at its 2011 high of 4200. Retracement to short-term support at 4100 is likely. Respect of support would be a bullish sign, while breakout above 4200 would offer an immediate target of 4300* and a long-term target of 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap.

CAC-40

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300 ; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Spain’s Madrid General Index followed through above 900, but is now retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm a long-term advance to 1050* (960* in the medium-term). Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 840 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050 ; 900 + ( 900 – 840 ) = 960

Italy’s MIB Index is testing resistance at 18000. Retracement to support at 17500 is likely, but respect would be bullish. Breakout above 18000 would offer an immediate target of 18500 and a long-term target of 20000*. Reversal below 16500 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

Bearish divergence on the FTSE 100 (13-week Twiggs Money Flow) warns of strong selling pressure. Reversal below 6400 would warn of a primary down-trend, confirmed if the rising trendline is broken. Reversal of TMF below zero would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 6750 is unlikely, but would signal a medium-term advance to the 1999 high of 7000.

FTSE 100

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Europe: Unleash the bulls

Spain’s Madrid General Index broke resistance at 900, indicating a long-term advance to 1050* (960* in the medium-term). Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 840 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050; 900 + ( 900 – 840 ) = 960

Germany’s DAX is similarly testing resistance at 8500. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 9000* and a long-term target of 9500*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above 10% would also signal continuation of the primary up-trend.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 8000 ) = 9000; 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

France’s CAC-40 is testing resistance at 4120. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 4300*, but follow-through above its 2011 high at 4200 would also confirm a long-term advance to 4500*. Reversal below 3900 is unlikely but would warn of a bull trap.
CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 4100 + ( 4100 – 3900 ) = 4300; 4050 + ( 4050 – 3600 ) = 4500

Italy’s MIB Index is also testing resistance, at 17700. Money Flow indicates strong buying pressure and breakout above 18000 would signal a long-term advance to 20000*. Reversal below 16500 is most unlikely, but would again warn of a bull trap.
MIB Index

* Target calculation: 17500 + ( 17500 – 15000 ) = 20000

The FTSE 100 is far more subdued, encountering resistance at 6600 after an end to the recent correction. Follow-through above 6700 would signal a medium-term advance to the 1999 high of 7000*, but reversal below 6500 would warn of another test of medium-term support at 6400. Failure of 6400, while unlikely, would test primary support at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

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Europe: Improving but beware of The Joker

Monthly charts best reflect the state of play in Europe. Germany and France are improving but there are still pockets of weakness elsewhere that threaten to destabilize the monetary union.

Germany’s DAX recovered above its 2007 high at 8200. Reversal below 8000 would indicate hesitancy, with another test of primary support (and rising trendline) at 7600. But the up-trend is intact and follow-through above 8500 would offer a long-term target of 9500*. Momentum is slowing but 13-week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the up-trend.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 fell through support at 6500 but the long tail indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 6400 would confirm a correction to the rising trendline. Breakout above 6750 would signal an advance to the 1999 high of 7000, but strong bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a correction. Breach of primary support at 6000 would signal a reversal.
FTSE 100 Index
France’s CAC-40 is headed for another test of its 2011 high at 4200. Breakout would offer a long-term target of 4800*. Reversal below 3600 is unlikely but would signal a primary down-trend.
CAC-40 Index

* Target calculation: 4200 + ( 4200 – 3600 ) = 4800

Italy’s MIB Index is testing resistance at 18000. Momentum is weakening so one needs to be prepared for another correction. But breakout would offer a target of 21000*.
MIB Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

Adam Taylor at Business Insider quotes Tim Parks from New York Review of Books:

If Nixon had refused to accept impeachment and had tried somehow to hang on to power, he would have been summarily removed. The same goes for any leader in Europe’s main democracies. Most will step down at the first sign of a serious criminal charge against them, aware that their parties will not support someone who damages their cause. The truly disquieting aspect of the present situation in Italy is not so much Berlusconi’s brazenness, but that his blackmail is possible and credible, that he has such complete control over such a large political party, and that he still commands considerable popular support. Astonishing as it may seem to those not familiar with the country, even serious newspapers and respectable commentators seem reluctant to insist on the enforcement of law, rarely mentioning the details of his crimes and actually giving credence to the argument that removing Berlusconi from the political scene would amount to disenfranchising the millions of voters who supported him at the previous election, as if there was no autonomous party in parliament to represent their views, as if they were not free to choose another leader before the next election.

The Joker may still have the last laugh.
Silvio Berlusconi as The Joker

Reproduced with thanks to Vincos on Flickr.com.

Spain’s Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 900. Momentum is weakening so, again, be prepared for another correction. But breakout above 900 would indicate an advance to 1050*.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

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Europe: DAX bullish, but FTSE selling pressure

Germany’s DAX recovered above the 2007 high at 8200. Follow-through above 8500 would offer a long-term target of 9500*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 8000 is now unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 is consolidating between 6500 and the 2007 high of 6750. Breakout above 6750 would signal an advance to the 1999 high of 7000. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, warns of a correction. Reversal below 6500 is likely, and would indicate a test of 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index is testing resistance at 900. Long-term 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains weak, but breakout above 900 would indicate an advance to 1050*.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

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Europe: DAX and FTSE 100 recovery

Germany’s DAX recovered above its 2007/2008 high at 8200, signaling a primary advance with a long-term target of 9500*. Breach of resistance at 8500 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow is above zero, but remains weak, warning of further retracement to test support at 8000. Reversal below 8000 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of the rising trendline around 7700.
DAX Index

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

The FTSE 100 is testing resistance at the 2008 high of 6750. Breakout would signal an advance to 7500*. Follow-through above the 1999/2000 high at 7000 would confirm. Respect of 6750 would indicate further consolidation above primary support at 6000.
FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6750 + ( 6750 – 6000 ) = 7500

Italy’s MIB Index respected primary support at 15000. Breakout above resistance at 16000 indicates another test of 17500. Repeated troughs above zero on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow suggest a healthy up-trend.
MIB Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index displays a weaker retracement above long-term support at 760, while 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 760 would warn of a test of the 2012 low at 600. Respect of support, however, would indicate another rally to 880* — especially if accompanied by breakout above 820 or 13-week TMF recovery above zero.
Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 820 + ( 820 – 760 ) = 880

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