Donald Trump’s reversal on tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports caused a sharp rebound in the S&P 500. However, tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place and have elicited a response from the Middle Kingdom.
Stocks
The S&P 500 retraced to test resistance at 6000. Respect would confirm a correction.
Six of seven mega-cap technology stocks showed losses, with only Meta Platforms (META) recording an up-day.
Financial Markets
Financial market conditions remain stimulative, with Moody’s Baa corporate bond spread narrowing to 1.45%, the lowest level since 1997. This indicates the ready availability of credit.
Treasury Markets
Ten-year Treasury yields continue to test support at 4.5%. Respect will likely confirm an advance to test resistance at 5.0%.
US Economy
ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.9%, the highest level in 27 months, indicating a recovery in the sector.
New orders jumped to 55.1%, indicating expansion.
However, the Prices sub-index also increased, indicating inflationary pressures.
Leading industry sectors also warn of a slowing economy. Airfreight and logistics (blue) plunged by more than 10% and would flag a recession ahead if joined by a decline in either containers and packaging (orange) or road and rail (green).
China Tariffs
China has slapped tariffs on US imports in a swift response to Donald Trump’s duties on Chinese goods, renewing a trade war between the world’s top two economies as America’s President seeks to punish Beijing for not halting the flow of illicit drugs.
Mr Trump’s additional 10% tariff across all Chinese imports into the US came into effect at 12.01am Eastern Time on Tuesday (5.01am GMT).
Within minutes, China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% for US coal and Liquid Natural Gas and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some cars and trucks. The new tariffs on US exports will start on February 10, the ministry said.
China also said it was starting an anti-monopoly investigation in Alphabet Inc’s Google, while including both PVH Corp, the holding company for brands including Calvin Klein, and US biotechnology company Illumina on its “unreliable entities list”.
Separately, China’s Commerce Ministry and its Customs Administration said it is imposing export controls on tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium, molybdenum and ruthenium-related items to “safeguard national security interests”. China controls much of the world’s supply of such rare earths that are critical for the clean energy transition. (Evening Standard)
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index retreated from resistance at 110, but respect of support at 108 will likely confirm another test of 110. The threat of increased tariffs is expected to strengthen the Dollar and increase upward pressure on long-term interest rates as foreign central banks sell reserves to support their currencies.
Gold broke resistance to set a new high at $2,816 per ounce. Expect retracement to test the new support level at $2,800, but respect will likely confirm our target of $3,000.
Conclusion
Canada and Mexico are a sideshow, with China likely to be the primary target of US sanctions imposed by the Trump administration. China’s swift retaliation is expected to lead to escalation.
China is in a far weaker position because of its large trade surplus with the US. A trade war is expected to hurt Chinese manufacturing and raw material imports. However, the US will also likely suffer an economic slowdown as global trade shrinks.
We expect the Dollar to strengthen, driving up long-term Treasury yields, which would be bearish for stocks and bonds.
We also expect a trade war to boost demand for gold as central banks reduce their exposure to US Treasuries.
Acknowledgments
- Institute for Supply Management: ISM Report on Business
