Tag: Gold Bugs Index

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Dollar bounce, gold and copper retrace

The Dollar Index is retracing to test resistance at 81.00/81.50. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold is retracing below resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, indicating rising inflation expectations in response to QE3.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

Copper is also retracing. Respect of 8000 would be a bullish sign. Again, a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Breakout above 8600 would confirm, indicating that global economic activity is reviving. Failure of support at 8000 would suggest the opposite.

Copper

Brent Crude is falling after breaking support at $112 per barrel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. The fall, despite increased inflation expectations, reflects slowing economic activity rather than increased security. Syria and Iran remain concerns in the Middle East. Test of support at $100 would warn of another down-turn.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

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Dollar down, gold up but crude falls

The Dollar Index is in a primary down-trend, as indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero. Expect a test of support at 78.00. An ensuing rally that respects resistance at 81.00/81.50 would reinforce the primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold is headed for a test of $1800 per ounce*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, reinforces the primary up-trend in the spot metal, with breakout above the double-bottom signaling an advance to 530*. Again, 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal.

Gold Bugs Index

* Target calculation: 460 + ( 460 – 390 ) = 530

The CRB Commodities Index fell sharply on the daily chart after last week’s run-up. Failure of initial support at 305 would indicate that momentum is slowing, but only a fall below 295 would warn of a reversal. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend.

CRB Non-Energy Commodities Index

Brent Crude fell sharply after breaking support at $112 per barrel. Upward breakout would test $126. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Expect a test of support at $100.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

Nymex WTI light crude also broke medium-term support, closing at $92.12 on Wednesday (October delivery). Expect a test of  primary support at $76.00/$78.00.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

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Dollar down-trend, gold and commodities rally

The Dollar Index broke primary support at 81.00 and the rising trendline on the weekly chart, signaling reversal to a primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level at 81.00/82.00. Respect is likely and would confirm the primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold continues its advance toward $1800 per ounce*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The 4-hour chart shows gold advancing in even steps of $30: from $1590 to $1630, $1660, $1690, and $1720. Each sharp jump is followed by several days consolidation, before another breakout. Occasional false starts — above $1700 — and reversals — below $1650 — keep traders on their toes, but this is a strong trend and should yield good results. False breaks at $1600, $1650 and $1700 remind us to be vigilant at $1750.

Spot Gold 4-Hour Chart

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, broke out of its double-bottom to signal a primary advance to 530*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal.

Gold Bugs Index

* Target calculation: 460 + ( 460 – 390 ) = 530

The CRB Commodities Index is also rising in response to the weaker dollar. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Expect a test of the 2012 high at 325.

CRB Non-Energy Commodities Index

Brent Crude continues to consolidate between $112 and $116 per barrel. Upward breakout would test $126. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero strengthens the bull signal. Reversal below $112 is unlikely, but would signal another test of support at $100.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

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Dollar weak, Gold Bugs double bottom

The Dollar Index is testing primary support at 81.00. Downward breakout would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the warning, while respect of zero would continue the primary up-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, responded by forming a double-bottom. Breakout above 460 would signal primary advance to 530*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.
Gold Bugs Index

* Target calculation: 460 + ( 460 – 390 ) = 530

Spot Gold respected its new support level at $1640 and is advancing toward $1800 per ounce*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Expect some resistance at $1700 but reversal below $1640 is unlikely.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

The CRB Non-Energy Commodities Index shows commodities responding to the weaker dollar. Short retracement followed by breakout above 296 indicates a test of primary resistance at 305. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout from the trend channel indicates the primary down-trend is over, but no clear (primary) up-trend has yet formed.

CRB Non-Energy Commodities Index

Brent Crude is consolidating between $112 and $116 per barrel. Narrow consolidation suggests an upward breakout and test of $126. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero strengthens the bull signal. Reversal below $112 is unlikely, but would signal another test of support at $100.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

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Gold, Silver and the Dollar

The Dollar Index met strong resistance at 80.00 and is likely to re-test support at 78.00. Upward breakout would signal continuation of the primary up-trend, while failure of support would warn of reversal to a down-trend. In the longer term, breakout above 82.00 would offer a target of 86.00*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would reinforce the primary up-trend, while breach would indicate a primary down-trend.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Gold continues to test the long-term trendline at $1600/ounce. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around the zero line highlights uncertainty. Failure of support at $1600 would warn that the decade-long up-trend is weakening, while breach of primary support at $1500 would confirm. Recovery above $1700, however, would indicate another test of $1800, suggesting the start of a new up-trend. Breakout above $1800 would confirm, offering a target of $2000/ounce*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1800 + ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 2000; 1500 – (1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is already in a primary down-trend, suggesting that spot prices are likely to follow. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also indicate a strong down-trend.

Gold Bugs Index

Spot silver is also in a primary down-trend, having encountered strong resistance at $36/ounce. A medium-term descending triangle warns of further weakness. Failure of primary support at $26 would indicate a decline to $20*.

Silver

* Target calculation: 27.50 – (35 – 27.50 ) = 20

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Gold falls as the dollar rallies

The Dollar Index rallied to test resistance at 80.00. Breakout would indicate respect of the rising trendline and another primary advance. Recovery above 82 would confirm the target of 86*. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would also strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot gold responded by testing support at $1600/ounce. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate that the long-term up-trend is weakening. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1700 is unlikely but would indicate respect of the rising trendline and continuation of the long-term up-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1550 – ( 1800 – 1550 ) = 1300

The Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, is in a clear primary down-trend since breaking support at 500. Peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also signal a strong down-trend. Spot gold is likely to follow unless the Fed changes course and announces further quantitative easing.

Gold Bugs Index

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Gold falters as the dollar strengthens

Spot Gold is headed for another test of the lower trend channel on the weekly chart. Failure of support at $1600 would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend; follow-through below the September low at $1550 would confirm. A fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would also warn of a reversal.

Spot Gold Weekly Chart

Penetration of medium-term support at $1700 on the daily chart of spot gold is not a strong signal, but follow-through below the recent low would indicate a test of primary support at $1600. Failure would offer a target of $1400*.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

* Target calculation: 1600 – ( 1800 – 1600 ) = 1400

The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index has been ranging between 500 and 600 for some time. Decline of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero suggests long-term weakness. Reversal below primary support at 500 would signal a primary down-trend — and a negative outlook for gold.

NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index

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Dollar declines, gold and commodities rise

The Dollar Index retraced to test the new support level at 76.00. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal trend weakness. A trough above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bull signal.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84

Gold broke through $1700/ounce in response to dollar weakness. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would signal a primary advance to 1800*. The long-term (primary) trend remains upward.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1600 ) = 1800

The Amex Gold Bugs Index is testing medium-term resistance at 560. Breakout would test the upper border of broadening wedge pattern — around 650 — and support a similar advance for the spot metal.

Amex Gold Bugs Index

Brent crude is also stronger, testing its upper trend channel at $110/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower channel — and the ascending long-term trendline — while breakout would signal an advance to $120*.

IPE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 110 + ( 110 – 100 ) = 120

The broader CRB Commodities Index is also headed for its upper trend channel. The ascending primary trendline remains intact but 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) warns of a strong down-trend.

CRB Commodities Index

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