Fiona Hill | Putin is pushing our buttons

British-born Fiona Hill is an expert on Russia and Vladimir Putin and served as security adviser to US Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Her take on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that Vladimir Putin still thinks he is winning. The Kremlin has a far higher tolerance for troop losses than Western governments and Putin believes that he can grind out a victory of sorts. He thinks he has the upper hand in terms of leverage, through his influence on energy markets and food shortages, and is prepared to wait out the West — waiting for them to lose patience and attempt to force a negotiated settlement.

“Putin is a contingency planner. If one thing doesn’t work, he’ll try another. If things get dire, expect more nuclear sabre-rattling. They already rhetorically deployed nuclear weapons, and used them, on national television.

Bear in mind they take a very careful read of us and how we react. Think about when they moved through the Chernobyl exclusion zone into Ukraine….People said they wouldn’t possibly do that but they did. This scares the heck out of everyone….Same thing with Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. They deliberately shelled it. Think about the timing. It was just when Germany and Japan were considering recommissioning their nuclear power plants. All this happens because Putin knows he can push our buttons. He knows our fears and can play to those fears.”

The West has to get ahead of this. But we always tend to do things too late. Earlier action in Ukraine — in terms of supplying weapons — may have deterred Putin.

“Putin and the Kremlin have a major advantage: continuity. They have been in power for a long time and have no effective opposition.

The West, by contrast, has no continuity. This is the main obstacle to getting ahead of the game. Democracies tend to lose focus over time…..The more domestic problems you have, the more likely you are to lose focus.

….Putin’s business is to find points of leverage.

Political donations. Corruption. Germany’s pact with the devil — it’s economy is built on reliance on cheap Russian gas. We have to wind this all back.

Record amount of renewable energy capacity added in 2016 | DW.COM

Global renewable energy capacity jumped eight percent last year despite a 23 percent drop in investment. Falling renewable energy prices are driving a build-up of capacity.

The world added a record amount of renewable energy in 2016 despite a sharp drop in investment, the UN said Thursday, largely due to falling costs of clean energy.

New renewable energy, excluding large hydro projects, added 138.5 gigawatts of power in 2016, up eight percent from the previous year. The new capacity came despite investment falling to $241.6 billion (227 billion euro), 23 percent lower than the previous year and the lowest since 2013.

….Not all the drop in investment was due to reduced costs, with China, Japan and some emerging markets cutting renewable investments. China’s investment in renewables dropped 32 percent to $78.3 billion, the first time in a decade it bucked a rising trend. Japan’s investment tumbled 56 percent.

What is encouraging is the 29% reduction in cost per KWh of renewable energy.

Levelized Cost
A 2014 study by Lazard, an international financial advisory and asset management firm, shows onshore wind has the lowest average levelized cost at $59 per megawatt-hour, and utility-scale photovoltaic plants weren’t far behind at $79. By comparison, the lowest cost conventional technologies were gas combined cycle technologies, averaging $74 per megawatt-hour, and coal plants, averaging $109. These numbers are the average of low- and high-end estimates….

Levelized Energy Costs

Wind and solar costs falling
The levelized cost of some wind and solar technologies has plummeted in recent years. The graphic below shows that the average cost of onshore wind has fallen from $135 per megawatt-hour in 2009 to $59 in 2014. That’s a 56 percent drop in five years. The cost of utility-scale photovoltaic technology has plunged from $359 per megawatt-hour in 2009 to $79 in 2014, a 78 percent decline. [source: Energy Innovation]

Lazard: Solar & Wind Energy Costs

The cost of large-scale solar continues to fall rapidly. In August 2016, Chile announced a new record low contract price to provide solar power for $29.10 per megawatt-hour (MWh). In September 2016, Abu Dhabi announced a new record breaking bid price, promising to provide solar power for $24.2 per megawatt-hour (MWh). [source: Wikipedia]

Wind prices are also falling. In 2016 the Norwegian Wind Energy Association (NORWEA) estimated the LCoE of a typical Norwegian wind farm at 44 €/MWh, assuming a weighted average cost of capital of 8% and an annual 3,500 full load hours, i.e. a capacity factor of 40%. NORWEA went on to estimate the LCoE of the 1 GW Fosen Vind onshore wind farm which is expected to be operational by 2020 to be as low as 35 €/MWh to 40 €/MWh. Offshore wind prices are also falling. In November 2016, Vattenfall won a tender to develop the Kriegers Flak windpark in the Baltic Sea for 49,9 €/MWh. [source: Wikipedia]

The IEA says “The share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption climbed to 18.3%, continuing the slight acceleration of trends evident since 2010. However, progress is nowhere near fast enough to double its share to 36% in 2030. As highlighted in IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the challenge is to increase reliance on renewable energy in the heat and transport sectors, which account for the bulk of global energy consumption.”

Source: UN: Record amount of renewable energy capacity added in 2016 | News | DW.COM | 07.04.2017

Vladimir Putin’s pointless conflict with Europe leaves it a vassal of China – Telegraph

From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

European officials calculate that Mr Putin will not dare to cut off energy supplies, since to do so would bring the Russian state to its knees within months. But even if he tried – as a shock tactic – it would not achieve much. Oil can be obtained anywhere.

Europe’s gas inventories have risen to 81pc of capacity, up from 46pc in March. Britain is at 94pc……Japan has just given the go-ahead for two nuclear reactors to restart in October, with seven likely by the end of the year. Koreans are also firing up closed nuclear reactors. All this frees up LNG.

Whether this is fruit of a co-ordinated strategy, the net effect is that inventories and spare LNG could cover a Russian cut-off for a long time, probably through the winter with rationing. Areas of eastern Europe have no pipeline supply from the West, but “regas” ships could plug some gaps in an emergency. The gas weapon is not what it seems.

The Kremlin is counting on acquiescence from the BRICS quintet as it confronts the West, and counting on capital from China to offset the loss of Western money. This is a pipedream. China’s Xi Jinping drove a brutal bargain in May on a future Gazprom pipeline, securing a price near $350 per 1,000 cubic metres that is barely above Russia’s production costs….

Read more at Vladimir Putin's pointless conflict with Europe leaves it a vassal of China – Telegraph.