Key Points
- Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000.
- The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.
- Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year.
- The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock.
- Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600/tonne due to supply shortages caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.
- Brent crude closed the week at $109 per barrel, with no end to the Iran war in sight.
The BLS reported a 178,000 increase in non-farm payroll in March, well above the 60,000 forecast. Employment growth has been erratic, averaging less than 15,000 over the past 6 months.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.