Alex White, Head of Country Analysis at The Economist Intelligence Unit: “We see an EEA- deal as highly likely…..we are reasonably optimistic about the breakup.”
Why Europe Failed
Dr Oliver Hartwich of The New Zealand Initiative discusses his new book, Why Europe Failed.
Over the past years, we have become used to Europe’s debt crisis. However, the fiscal problems of countries such as Greece are only the tip of the iceberg. Europe’s crisis has much deeper roots. Here, Dr Hartwich explains the causes of Europe’s decline.
Russia: EU is the real enemy | Tim Snyder
Professor Timothy Snyder of Yale University says that, despite the spin, the European Union is Russia’s real enemy — not America — and a Western-leaning Ukraine is part of the problem.
Europe’s Energy Essentials by Ana Palacio | Project Syndicate
Ana Palacio on Europe’s energy challenge:
Energy’s emergence as a focal point for European leaders makes sense, given that it lies at the confluence of the three existential threats facing the European Union: a revisionist Russia, the declining competitiveness of European businesses, and climate change.
….The most tangible element of the EU’s emerging energy-policy framework is the internal energy market, which, once completed, will allow for the unimpeded flow of energy and related investments throughout the EU. Such an integrated energy market would lead to significant savings – estimates go as high as €40 billion ($51 billion) annually by 2030 – thereby providing a much-needed competitiveness boost.
The internal energy market would enhance Europe’s energy security as well…. individual countries are often excessively dependent on a single source and, more dangerously, a single supplier: Russia. Unrestricted energy flows within the EU would mitigate the risks of supply disruptions or shocks.
Read more at Europe’s Energy Essentials by Ana Palacio – Project Syndicate.
Russia’s Ruble in a world of pain
Russia’s ruble is in a world of pain, having lost one-third of its value against the Dollar over the last 40 months. The down-trend is accelerating, emphasized by two large 13-week Twiggs Momentum peaks below the zero line.
Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner and has no way out but to escalate. His current strategy in Eastern Europe of one-step-back-two-steps-forward is becoming predictable and the European Union is likely to run out of patience, responding with further sanctions. Increasingly threatening behavior in the Baltic is also unlikely to intimidate, merely strengthening alliances and resolve.
George Soros on the Ukraine crisis:
https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/525183504066560000
Former Swedish PM Carl Bildt seems to agree:
"Ukraine’s Vote, Russia’s Fate" by @carlbildt http://t.co/HfENdCm0Uh
— Project Syndicate (@ProSyn) October 22, 2014
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard weighs in on Russia’s economic woes:
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Russia is weaker now than decaying Soviet Union before collapse | via @Telegraph http://t.co/qmnrX5ffHT
— Colin Twiggs (@Colin_Twiggs) October 23, 2014
“The Russians fear us far more than we fear them” | Nigel Farage
Not often I agree with Nigel Farage, but his prescient 2008 warning about Russia and the Ukraine makes you wonder about EU foreign policy:
Europe’s Five Deadly Sins on Ukraine | Carnegie Europe
Jan Techau of Carnegie Europe writes:
….In recent years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has talked about the Kremlin’s fears of Western encirclement. He has declared that EU and NATO enlargement are part of a conspiracy to destroy Russia, that Ukraine is not really a sovereign nation, and that Western agents provocateurs were behind Ukraine’s 2004–2005 Orange Revolution.
Amid all that rhetoric, the West failed to recognize that Putin was deadly serious. Such talk was dismissed either as cheap propaganda or as the mild lunacy of a handful of overideologized true believers. Nobody imagined that Putin himself really believed his own bluster.
But for the Russian president, the fight over Ukraine is not an imperialistic adventure, it is a fight for survival against a mortal Western enemy. Just because observers in the West know that’s nonsense, that doesn’t mean that others think the same. Such Western projections were finally debunked when German Chancellor Angela Merkel remarked to U.S. President Barack Obama on March 2 that Putin was “in another world.”
Read more at Europe’s Five Deadly Sins on Ukraine – Carnegie Europe.
The EU should take inspiration from Switzerland in its attempts to increase democratic legitimacy | EUROPP
Joseph Lacey explains why the EU should follow the Swiss example:
Three major factors help to explain how Switzerland is possible. First, there are national elections and nationally-held referendums connected to the workings of a national government. Second, though national elections only take place every five years, referendums are far more frequent. On average, usually on three scheduled dates, Switzerland holds seven referendums annually. Some of these are constitutionally mandated, though the majority are demanded at the initiative of at least 100,000 citizen signatures. Third, unlike the case of Belgium where national consciousness is fragmented by two party systems divided along linguistic lines (French and Flemish), Switzerland has a single party system where the dominant cleavage is ideological, cutting across linguistic barriers and thereby allowing parties to draw common support from all public spheres.
Read more at The EU should take inspiration from Switzerland in its attempts to increase democratic legitimacy. | EUROPP.
German Press Review of Cameron Call for British EU Referendum | SPIEGEL ONLINE
The center-right Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
“Cameron’s strategy may be dangerous, but his analysis isn’t wrong. Euro-zone integration is getting ever deeper and that has consequences for EU countries that are not part of the common currency. In general, the competitive capacity across the EU leaves a lot to be desired. And the people are growing more and more distant from ‘Europe’ and its institutions. None of this can be disputed. A few things need to be settled. Is it imperative that we continue transferring more power to ‘Brussels’? In what areas is it essential, indispensable in fact, that we act together? What role should national parliaments play in European policies? What’s clear is what the British do and do not want: They want an internal market and cooperation between member states, but they do not want an ‘ever-closer union’.”
Read more at German Press Review of Cameron Call for British EU Referendum – SPIEGEL ONLINE.