Not the best interviewer but you always get your money’s worth from Dr Lacy Hunt, former chief economist at the Dallas Fed.
The highlights:
- Dr Hunt warns of a hard landing.
- Recent GDP gains are led by consumer spending (+4%) but real disposable income declined (-1%). Personal saving depressed at 3.4%, compared to the GFC low of 2.4%.
- UOM consumer sentiment is below level of previous recessions.
- A sharp surge in the economy often occurs just before recession.
- Dollar is too strong for global stability. It will fall as US goes into recession but then stabilize as the impact flows through to rest of the world.
- Three signs of weakness:
- Negative net national saving has never occurred before in a period where GDP is rising (economy is weaker than we think).
- Bank credit is already contracting. This normally only occurs when the economy is already in recession.
- Inflation is likewise falling before the recession.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.