balance-sheet expansion Archives - the patient investor

March 16, 2020

Fed brings out the big bazooka

The Fed is on a war footing.

The FOMC announced that it will cut the funds rate to zero. Timing of the announcement — Sunday, March 15th at 5:00 p.m. — signals the level of urgency.

“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the [FOMC] Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The effects of the coronavirus will weigh on economic activity in the near term and pose risks to the economic outlook. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.”

Bond markets have been anticipating this cut since March 4th, when the 3-month T-bill rate plunged to 33 basis points.

Fed Funds Rate, Interest on Excess Reserves and 3-Month T-bills

The Fed also announced further QE of $700 billion, expanding its balance sheet by $500 billion in Treasury securities and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This is in addition to the $1.5 trillion repo operations announced earlier in the week.

Fed Balance Sheet: Total Assets and Excess Reserves on Deposit

In a related announcement, the Fed is also encouraging banks to use the discount window, cutting the primary credit rate by 150 basis points to 0.25 percent, effective March 16, 2020.

“Narrowing the spread of the primary credit rate relative to the general level of overnight interest rates should help encourage more active use of the window by depository institutions to meet unexpected funding needs. To further enhance the role of the discount window as a tool for banks in addressing potential funding pressures, the Board also today announced that depository institutions may borrow from the discount window for periods as long as 90 days, prepayable and renewable by the borrower on a daily basis. The Federal Reserve continues to accept the same broad range of collateral for discount window loans…”

Not all the $1.5T repo facility is likely to be taken up — the Fed just used a big number for dramatic effect, to get everyone’s attention — but we expect the Fed’s balance sheet expansion to get close to $6 trillion (compared to $4.3T on March 11th) before this is over.

While these rescue operations are normally announced as temporary, they soon become permanent as the market resists any efforts to unwind the Fed’s role.

As I said on Saturday: “To infinity and beyond…“

January 30, 2013

Federal Reserve FOMC statement | Press Release

…..Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month……

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal……

Read the complete statement at FRB: Press Release–Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement–January 30, 2013.

October 31, 2012

Global QE

Observation made by Philip Lowe, RBA Deputy Governor:

Since mid 2008, four of the world’s major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England – have all expanded their balance sheets very significantly, and further increases have been announced in a couple of cases. In total, the assets of these four central banks have already increased by the equivalent of around $US5 trillion, or around 15 per cent of the combined GDP of the relevant economies. We have not seen this type of planned simultaneous very large expansion of central bank balance sheets before. So in that sense, it is very unusual, and its implications are not yet fully understood……

via RBA: Australia and the World.

November 23, 2011

Germany’s economic and political generals are fighting the wrong war – Saul Eslake

The role which the European Central Bank needs to be allowed to play in resolving the European sovereign debt crisis needn’t amount to sustained financing of government deficits. It is perhaps better conceived of as being akin to central bank intervention in the currency markets.

When, in moments of one-sided speculation, or panic, foreign exchange markets push a currency to what by any reasonable yardstick appears to be extremely over- or under-valued levels, it’s not unusual for central banks to sell or buy that currency in sufficient volume to push it back in the opposite direction. If the central bank concerned is perceived as ‘credible’, the volume of purchases or sales required to achieve its objective will often be quite small. And if its judgement as to what constitutes ‘reasonable’ is correct, it will usually end up making a profit.

via Germany’s economic and political generals are fighting the wrong war – On Line Opinion – 24/11/2011.