5-year Breakeven rate Archives - the patient investor

July 14, 2018

CPI rises but US stocks rally

June consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 2.8% but forward estimates of inflation, represented by the 5-Year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS) remain subdued at 2.06%.

CPI and 5-Year Breakeven

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is at 2.2% while average hourly earnings (total private: production and non-supervisory employees) annual growth, representing underlying inflationary pressure, is higher at 2.7%.

Core CPI and Average Hourly Earnings: Production and Nonsupervisory

Credit and broad money supply (MZM plus time deposits) growth remain steady, tracking nominal GDP growth at around 5.0%. A spike in credit growth often precedes a similar spike in broad money supply by several quarters.

Credit and Broad Money Supply Growth

And a surge in broad money supply growth, ahead of nominal GDP, flagged rising inflationary pressures ahead of the last two recessions, prompting the Fed to step on the brakes.

Nominal GDP and Broad Money Supply Growth

Overall, the inflation outlook appears subdued, with little urgency to hike interest rates at present.

The market is also getting more comfortable with the idea of trade tariffs. The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 2800. Breakout is likely and would suggest a primary advance to 3000.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq 100 followed through above 7300, confirming the primary advance, with a target of 7700.

Nasdaq 100

This is the final stage of a bull market but there is no sign of it ending. I am wary of the impact of a trade war on individual stocks and have reduced exposure to multinationals that make a sizable percentage of their sales in China.

Financial markets are supposed to swing like a pendulum: They may fluctuate wildly in response to exogenous shocks, but eventually they are supposed to come to rest at an equilibrium point…. Instead, as I told Congress, financial markets behaved more like a wrecking ball, swinging from country to country and knocking over the weaker ones. It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the international financial system itself constituted the main ingredient in the meltdown process.

~ George Soros on the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the need for greater regulation of global financial markets

November 17, 2015

Gold breaks support

Gold fell to $1070/ounce, breaching the band of primary support between $1080 and $1100 per ounce. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend. The next level of support is $1000/ounce*.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1200 – 1100 ) = 1000

Inflation

Core CPI is close to the Fed target of 2.0 percent but inflation expectations continue to fall, with the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus 5-year TIPS yield) as low as 1.2 percent.

5-Year Breakeven Rate

Interest Rates and the Dollar

Long-term interest rates are rising, anticipating a Fed rate hike. 10-Year Treasury yields retraced to test the new support level after breaking through 2.25 percent. Respect of support is likely and will signal an advance to 2.50 percent. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests an up-trend. Breakout above 2.50 percent would confirm.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Low inflation and a stronger Dollar are weakening demand for gold. The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 100. Respect of zero by 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 100 is likely and would signal an advance to 107*.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 93 ) = 107

October 26, 2015

Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold

Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years.

5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings

The reasoning is straight-forward: the end of the infrastructure boom in China and slowing economic growth means low energy and commodity prices for the foreseeable future. Slow credit growth in the West will also act as a brake on aggregate demand, maintaining downward pressure on CPI.

CPI:US and EU

Long-term interest rates are low, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 2.0 percent. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, suggests further weakness.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index rallied off support at 93. A higher trough indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 98 would suggest another advance.

Dollar Index

Gold

A strong dollar and low inflation would weaken demand for gold. Spot gold is testing medium-term support at $1150/ounce. Breach would warn of a test of the primary level at $1100. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum is rising, but a peak below zero would signal continuation of the primary down-trend.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

October 26, 2015

Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold

5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings

CPI:US and EU

Long-term interest rates are low, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 2.0 percent. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, suggests further weakness.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Dollar Index rallied off support at 93. A higher trough indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 98 would suggest another advance.

Dollar Index

Gold

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000

Fanaticism consists in redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim.

~ George Santayana

July 24, 2014

Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens

Treasury yields weaken further
The Dollar continues to strengthen
Inflation target remains at 2% p.a.
Gold retreats

Interest Rates and the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. Recovery above 2.65 is unlikely, but would indicate the correction is over, with a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

The Dollar Index followed-through above 80.50 and is headed for another test of 81.00. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 81.00 would strengthen the signal; and 81.50 would confirm. Breach of 80.00 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 79.00.

Dollar Index

Low interest rates and a stronger dollar suggest inflation expectations are falling, but this is not yet evident on the TIPS spread. The 5-year Breakeven rate (5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation-Indexed Yield) remains at 2.0 percent.

5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation Indexed (TIPS) Yield

Gold

Gold is nonetheless falling, in line with weaker inflation expectations. Breach of short-term support at $1295/$1300 would test $1240/$1250. And breach of $1240 would signal another primary decline, with an intermediate target of $1100*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around zero, however, suggests hesitancy, with no strong trend. Recovery above $1350 is unlikely at present, but would indicate another test of $1400/$1420.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1250 – ( 1400 – 1250 ) = 1100

When we compare long-term crude prices (Brent Crude) to gold, it is evident that crude prices tend to lead and gold to follow. The main reason is the impact that higher crude prices have on inflation, increasing demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Crude prices currently remain high, but it remains to be seen whether gold will follow as usual.

Gold and Crude

Gold prices adjusted for inflation suggest the opposite. There are two enormous spikes on the chart, both flagging times of great financial uncertainty. The first is spiraling inflation of the early 1980s and the second is the all-in balance sheet expansion (also known as quantitative easing) by central banks after the global financial crisis. Gold prices remain elevated and are likely to fall further as central banks curtail expansion.

Gold and CPI