Stock Markets Archives - Page 125 of 170

December 16, 2012

Canada: TSX Composite approaches 12500

The TSX Composite continues to range between 11200 and 12800, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero reflects long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 12500 would signal a primary advance, while follow-through above 12800 would confirm, offering a target of 14000*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12500 + ( 12500 – 11000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

December 16, 2012

S&P 500 retraces

The S&P 500 is retracing to test medium-term support at 1400 on the daily chart. Respect would signal an advance to 1475, while failure would indicate a test of primary support at 1350. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would warn of selling pressure, but a higher trough (above/below zero) would suggest continuation of the advance to 1475.

S&P 500 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 11, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 breakout

The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 4600. Breakout is likely — following bullishness in Europe and Asia — and would signal an advance to 4900*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero suggests a strong primary up-trend. Respect of resistance is not expected but would retrace to test the rising trendline at 4450.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4600 + ( 4600 – 4300 ) = 4900

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 11, 2012

China: Shanghai resurgence

China’s Shanghai Composite Index threatens a bear trap on the weekly chart, reversing above former primary support at 2000, headed for a test of resistance at 2150. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests that a bottom is forming. Penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 11, 2012

S&P 500 hesitancy continues

The US remains hesitant under the uncertainty of fiscal cliff negotiations. The S&P 500 broke medium-term resistance at 1425 but a tall shadow on today’s candle indicates short-term selling pressure. Expect a test of the new support level before further advances signaled by medium-term buying pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (holding above zero). Respect of 1425 would signal an advance to the September/October high of 1475.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1475 + ( 1475 – 1350 ) = 1600

The Nasdaq 100 weekly chart is testing medium-term resistance at 2700. Breakout would signal an advance to 2800/2900. Falling 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, warns of a primary down-trend; strengthened if the indicator reverses below zero. Profit-taking on stocks like AAPL, to recognize capital gains ahead of fiscal cliff measures, may be adding to selling pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2450 – ( 2900 – 2450 ) = 2000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 11, 2012

Europe leads the way

Revival of European markets, with breakouts on the DAX and CAC-40, sparked a broad resurgence in global markets. Dow Jones Europe Index broke long-term resistance at 265 on the weekly chart, signaling a primary advance to 285*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero confirms the primary up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 265 + ( 265 – 245 ) = 285

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 9, 2012

Phoney recovery?

First signs of recovery after a recession are normally rising earnings, initially from corporate cost-cutting but followed up with rising revenues.

With massive central bank pump priming — referred to by Mark Mobius here — this time may be different. Flows of new money from central bank balance sheet expansion are likely to find their way into the stock market — and even the housing market — driving up prices. But consumption is lagging with slow growth in employment and average wages. With lackluster sales growth, earnings are likely to remain sluggish. Which means inflated stock market valuations and high price-earnings ratios as stocks are driven into over-bought territory. Not a solid foundation for a sustained recovery but another rung up the ladder of risk.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 7, 2012

Reid: Eurozone's 2013 Nightmare Scenario | Business Insider

In his 2013 outlook, titled In Authorities We (have to) Trust, Deutsche Bank credit strategist Jim Reid warns that Europe is headed for tough times in 2013.

Matthew Boesler at BusinessInsider writes:

Reid highlights three major issues.

To start, European stocks – and stocks in markets around the world, for that matter – are considerably overvalued based on historical correlations to PMI data….

The second problem is austerity. Most accept that austerity measures weigh on economic growth in the short term, yet euro-area governments are moving forward with plans attempting to bring fiscal budgets back into balance anyway.

…. the third problem: namely, that governments have consistently set economic forecasts too high and then failed to meet their own targets.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 7, 2012

DAX breakout above 7500

Germany’s DAX broke resistance at 7500 from its May 2011 high, signaling an advance to the 2007 high at 8000*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would reinforce the signal, indicating medium-term buying pressure.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 6, 2012

Goldman predicts falling commodity prices

Matthew Boesler writes that Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodity Research, in his investment outlook for 2013, says commodity prices may be done going up, but that doesn’t mean investors can’t still make money.

Currie’s explanation is this: sustained high prices over the past decade have caused producers to invest in new technologies that help them to harvest more commodities, because they can sell them in the current market for high prices. However, those new technologies have the effect of relieving long-term supply constraints, because the world will be able to use them to access previously unaccessable energy resources, shale oil being just one example.

If Currie is right, returns will be “generated more by the backwardation in the term structure and less by price appreciation”. That means that investors can profit from rolling current contracts into consecutively cheaper future contracts. But it also means a bear market in resources stocks as commodity prices fall.

via GOLDMAN: The 'Old Economy Renaissance' Is About To Offer Opportunities For Commodity Investors Not Seen Since The 1990s – Business Insider.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.