Stock Markets Archives - Page 144 of 170

May 14, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

Australia’s ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 4250. Failure would indicate a correction to test primary support at 4000. Bearish divergence and reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warn of medium-term selling pressure.

ASX 200 Index Daily Chart

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 14, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

The TSX 60 is testing primary support at 650. Failure would signal a primary down-trend, already indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow, however, continues to reflect reasonable buying pressure so we need to guard against a bear trap.

TSX 60 Index
TSX 60 Index Twiggs Money Flow

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 725 – 650 ) = 575

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 14, 2012

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 correction

The S&P 500 broke support at 1340 to confirm the correction. Initial target is 1300. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero confirms medium-term selling pressure signaled by an earlier bearish divergence . Recovery above 1360 is most unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

* Target calculation: 1360 – ( 1420 – 1360 ) = 1300

A similar 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signal on the Nasdaq 100 warns of medium-term selling pressure. Retracement respected resistance at 2630, confirming a correction. Initial target is 2500*.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2630 – ( 2760 – 2630 ) = 2500

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 10, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex is testing support at 16500 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Recovery above 17500 would signal the start of a fresh primary advance. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 16500 would test the band of primary support above 15000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Nifty is similarly testing support at 5000. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns that the primary down-trend will continue, but recovery above the descending trendline at 5200 would indicate that the correction is over.

NSE Nifty Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell sharply to test medium-term support at 2900. Failure would indicate a correction to the rising trendline. Respect of support, especially if strengthened by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero, would signal the start of a fresh primary advance.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2600 ) = 3200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 9, 2012

Commodity prices and the S&P 500

The CRB Commodities Index is testing primary support at 295 and respect of the zero line (from below) by 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of another primary decline. Target for a breakout would be 265*. Divergence between commodities and the S&P 500 suggests that stocks are over-priced, with the Fed doing its best to depress bond yields and pump up stock prices ahead of the November election.

CRB Commodities Index and S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 8, 2012

ASX 200 retreats

Australia’s ASX 200 retreated below the band of resistance at 4350/4400. Recovery above 4400 would confirm the primary up-trend signaled by the 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to above zero. Target for an advance would be the 2011 high at 4900*.

ASX 200 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 4400 + (4400 – 3900) = 4900

On the daily chart, however, bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow highlights medium-term selling pressure, warning of a correction. Breach of the rising trendline and support at 4250 would confirm, signaling another test of primary support at 4000.

ASX 200 Index Daily Chart

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 8, 2012

China & Hong Kong

The Shanghai Composite Index is testing resistance at 2500. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2500 would confirm the signal — and assist an Australian recovery.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2500 + ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2750

The Hang Seng is headed for another test of support at 20000. Failure would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen a bear signal.
Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 17.5 ) = 22.5

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 8, 2012

UK & Europe: France rejects austerity

Election of French Socialist Francois Hollande may lead to a similar rejection of austerity measures by Spain and Italy, creating a clear fault-line between the uncompromising German-led North and a more socialist French-led South. That could eventually lead to fracture of the euro-zone unless the two camps discover a new spirit of compromise. Be prepared for a rough ride.

The CAC-40 index rallied Monday and recovery above 3300 would indicate that the correction is over. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would signal buying pressure. Failure of support at 3100, however, would indicate another test of primary support at 2800.

France CAC-40 Index

Spain’s Madrid General Index continues in a strong primary down-trend, with 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero. Failure of support at the 2009 low of 700 would signal another primary decline.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

63-Day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) also indicates a primary down-trend on Italy’s MIB Index but this week’s blue candle suggests support at 13500. Recovery above 15000 would signal another test of 17000. Failure of support, however, would offer a long-term target of 10000*.

Italy MIB Index

* Target calculation: 13500 – ( 17000 – 13500 ) = 10000

The German DAX continues to test the rising trendline and support at 6500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests strong buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and test the 2011 high at 7600.

Germany DAX Index

London Stock Exchange was closed Monday. The FTSE 100 is again testing support at 5600 and failure would warn of another test of primary support at 5000/5050. Breach of the rising trendline would also signal that the up-trend is losing momentum. Retreat of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 8, 2012

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 threaten a correction

The Nasdaq 100 is testing medium-term support at 2630. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of a correction; follow-through below Friday’s low of 2620 would confirm, offering an initial target of 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

The S&P 500 continues to test support at 1350/1370 on the weekly chart after penetrating its rising trendline. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would signal a correction with an initial target of 1300*, but the primary up-trend is not under immediate threat.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1350 – ( 1400 – 1350 ) = 1300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 7, 2012

Fedex double top

Bellwether transport stock Fedex is consolidating in a narrow band above the neckline of a double top reversal at $88. Follow-through below $85 would confirm a primary down-trend, warning of a slow-down in the broader economy. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal. Recovery above $90 is less likely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

Fedex

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.