Analysis of major stock markets around the world.
Canada’s TSX 60 index broke through primary support at 650, confirming the primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Expect a decline to 580*. Recovery above 650 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580
The S&P 500 rallied off support at 1290/1300, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Respect of resistance at 1350/1360 would indicate a strong correction. Likewise a 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below zero would be a strong bear signal. The primary trend remains upward, with support a long way off at 1150.
On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 displays a solid bounce off support at 2500 and the rising trendline. Respect of resistance at 2650 would indicate a test of 2400. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would reinforce the primary up-trend, but momentum is falling fast and penetration of the zero line would warn of reversal to a down-trend.
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The CRB Commodities Index broke support at 295, warning of another primary decline. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to fall.
* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265
The ASX 200 broke medium-term support at 4250 with a large red candle, signaling another test of primary support at 3980/4000. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below the zero line confirms strong selling pressure. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend.
Dow Jones Japan Index is headed for a test of primary support at 47. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Failure of support would resume the primary down-trend, offering a target of 38*.
* Target calculation: 48 – ( 58 – 48 ) = 38
Dow Jones South Korea Index reflects stronger support on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, but reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would still warn of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 380 would confirm.
The Shanghai Composite Index is retreating from primary resistance at 2500. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of continuation of the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2500 is unlikely but would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index reversed below primary support at 20000 on the weekly chart. Fall of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal, offering an initial target of 17500.
India’s Sensex broke the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 16500, indicating a test of primary support at 15000. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support at 15000 would offer a target of 12000*.
* Target calculation: 15 – ( 18 – 15 ) = 12
The Nifty is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 4500. Failure would confirm the primary down-trend indicated by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index broke medium-term support at 2900. The primary trend is still up but expect a test of support at the rising trendline (2800). Failure of support and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would both warn of a primary down-trend.
Dow Jones Singapore Index is similarly testing medium-term support at 230. Failure would indicate a test of the primary level at 210. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure; reversal below zero would have long-term implications.
Dow Jones Europe Index broke medium-term support at 240, warning of another test of primary support at 210. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support would confirm.
The FTSE 100 broke medium-term support at 5600, indicating another test of primary support at 5000/5050. Breach of the rising trendline and retreat of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero both warn of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm.
Australia’s ASX 200 is testing medium-term support at 4250. Failure would indicate a correction to test primary support at 4000. Bearish divergence and reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warn of medium-term selling pressure.
