Stock Markets Archives - Page 142 of 170

May 28, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 consolidation

Asia consolidated today and the ASX 200 was no exception, rallying off short-term support at 4020. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 4150 would indicate a test of primary support at 3980/4000. Failure of support would offer a target of 3600*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 3600

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 28, 2012

Hong Kong & China

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is consolidating above 18500 on the weekly chart. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure, strengthening the bear signal from 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breach of 18500 would test primary support at 17500 — and breach of 17500 would offer a target of 15000*. Recovery above 20000 remains unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 17500 – ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 15000

Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of primary support at 2250; breach would offer a target of 2000*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2500 is unlikely but would signal a primary advance.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 28, 2012

UK & Europe

Dow Jones Europe Index found medium-term support at 220 but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 210 would signal a decline to 160*, close to the 2009 low. Respect of support is less likely but would indicate a rally to 260.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – ( 260 – 210 ) = 160

The FTSE 100 is consolidating above 5250 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow remains above zero but 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 5000/5100 would confirm.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 28, 2012

Canadian bear trap?

Canada’s TSX 60 index recovered above primary support at 650. Follow-through above the April low of 675 would indicate a bear trap, presenting an early buy opportunity for aggressive traders. The more cautious may be inclined to wait for recovery above 730, especially as 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Reversal below 640 is more likely and would signal a decline to 580*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 28, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq consolidate

The S&P 500 finished the week having twice respected support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1292/1296 on the hourly chart. Recovery above resistance at 1330 would indicate the end of the secondary correction.

S&P 500 Index Hourly Chart

21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 1290 remains likely and would test primary support at 1150.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 continues to test support at 2500. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure and reversal below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.

Nasdaq 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 23, 2012

Commodities fall, stocks follow

The CRB Commodities Index is headed for a test of the 2010 low of 250 after breaking primary support at 295. The trough below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to follow.

CRB Commodities Index and S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

Hong Kong & China: Hang Seng breaks support

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fall below 20000 confirms the earlier primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero. Expect a rally to test the new resistance level at 20000. Respect would indicate a decline to 17500. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.

Hang Seng Index

Dow Jones Shanghai Index is more resilient, respecting the rising trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Breakout above 310 would signal a primary up-trend, but penetration of the rising trendline would test primary support at 275.

Dow Jones Shanghai Index

* Target calculation: 310 + ( 310 – 280 ) = 340; 280 – ( 310 – 280 ) = 250

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 rallies

The ASX 200 rallied off secondary support at 4050. Respect of resistance at 4150 would signal a test of primary support at 3980/4000. Another 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below the zero line would strengthen the bear signal. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero also warns of a primary down-trend.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

Japan & South Korea

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for a test of primary support at 8000 after breaking both support at 9000 and the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Breach of 8000 would resume the primary down-trend, offering a long-term target of 6000*.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 10000 – 8000 ) = 6000

Dow Jones South Korea Index is retracing to test resistance at 425 after a sharp fall below the rising trendline. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 380 would confirm, signaling a decline to the 2011 low of 350.

Dow Jones South Korea Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 22, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex found short-term support at 16000, but 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates continued selling pressure. Breach of 16000 would test the band of primary support at 15000.

BSE Sensex Index

The Nifty similarly found short-term support at 4800, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a continuing primary down-trend. Failure of the 4800 level would test primary support at 4500.

NSE Nifty Index

Dow Jones Singapore Index found short-term support at 222 — the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Expect a rally to test 230 but respect would warn of a decline to test primary support at 203. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero, warning of a primary down-trend.

Dow Jones Singapore Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.