Analysis of major stock markets around the world.
Asia consolidated today and the ASX 200 was no exception, rallying off short-term support at 4020. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 4150 would indicate a test of primary support at 3980/4000. Failure of support would offer a target of 3600*.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 3600
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is consolidating above 18500 on the weekly chart. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure, strengthening the bear signal from 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breach of 18500 would test primary support at 17500 — and breach of 17500 would offer a target of 15000*. Recovery above 20000 remains unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.
* Target calculation: 17500 – ( 20000 – 17500 ) = 15000
Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a test of primary support at 2250; breach would offer a target of 2000*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend. Recovery above 2500 is unlikely but would signal a primary advance.
* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000
Dow Jones Europe Index found medium-term support at 220 but reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of primary support at 210 would signal a decline to 160*, close to the 2009 low. Respect of support is less likely but would indicate a rally to 260.
* Target calculation: 210 – ( 260 – 210 ) = 160
The FTSE 100 is consolidating above 5250 on the weekly chart. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow remains above zero but 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 5000/5100 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 5000 – ( 6000 – 5000 ) = 4000
Canada’s TSX 60 index recovered above primary support at 650. Follow-through above the April low of 675 would indicate a bear trap, presenting an early buy opportunity for aggressive traders. The more cautious may be inclined to wait for recovery above 730, especially as 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Reversal below 640 is more likely and would signal a decline to 580*.
* Target calculation: 650 – ( 720 – 650 ) = 580
The S&P 500 finished the week having twice respected support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1292/1296 on the hourly chart. Recovery above resistance at 1330 would indicate the end of the secondary correction.
21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to warn of selling pressure. Reversal below 1290 remains likely and would test primary support at 1150.
On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 continues to test support at 2500. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure and reversal below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.
The CRB Commodities Index is headed for a test of the 2010 low of 250 after breaking primary support at 295. The trough below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to follow.
* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fall below 20000 confirms the earlier primary down-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum reversal below zero. Expect a rally to test the new resistance level at 20000. Respect would indicate a decline to 17500. Recovery above 20000 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap.
Dow Jones Shanghai Index is more resilient, respecting the rising trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero. Breakout above 310 would signal a primary up-trend, but penetration of the rising trendline would test primary support at 275.
* Target calculation: 310 + ( 310 – 280 ) = 340; 280 – ( 310 – 280 ) = 250
The ASX 200 rallied off secondary support at 4050. Respect of resistance at 4150 would signal a test of primary support at 3980/4000. Another 21-day Twiggs Money Flow peak below the zero line would strengthen the bear signal. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero also warns of a primary down-trend.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is headed for a test of primary support at 8000 after breaking both support at 9000 and the rising trendline. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Breach of 8000 would resume the primary down-trend, offering a long-term target of 6000*.
* Target calculation: 8000 – ( 10000 – 8000 ) = 6000
Dow Jones South Korea Index is retracing to test resistance at 425 after a sharp fall below the rising trendline. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 380 would confirm, signaling a decline to the 2011 low of 350.
India’s Sensex found short-term support at 16000, but 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates continued selling pressure. Breach of 16000 would test the band of primary support at 15000.
The Nifty similarly found short-term support at 4800, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a continuing primary down-trend. Failure of the 4800 level would test primary support at 4500.
Dow Jones Singapore Index found short-term support at 222 — the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Expect a rally to test 230 but respect would warn of a decline to test primary support at 203. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum crossed below zero, warning of a primary down-trend.
