Stock Markets Archives - Page 138 of 170

July 17, 2012

UK & Europe momentum rising

Dow Jones Europe Index is headed for a test of the long-term descending trendline at 240. Upward breakout would support the bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, indicating a primary up-trend. Breakout above 265 would confirm. Respect of resistance at 240, however, would warn of another test of primary support at 210.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a bottom is forming. Retracement that respects support at 5250 would confirm. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would also favor an up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

July 17, 2012

Canada: TSX 60 tests primary support

Canada’s TSX 60 index is headed for another test of primary support at 640. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to 560*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is rising but respect of the zero line would warn of a strong down-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 640 – ( 720 – 640 ) = 560

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 17, 2012

S&P 500 and Dow Industrials remain bearish

The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 1370 but declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a primary down-swing; confirmed if support at 1270 is broken. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the bear signal. Breakout above 1420 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 1570*.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1270 ) = 1570

The Dow Industrial Average is in a similar position, with bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warning of selling pressure. Reversal of TMF below zero would indicate a primary down-trend .

Dow Industrial Average Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 16, 2012

Treasury yields continue to fall

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 1.45 percent. Breach would offer a target of 1.20 percent*. Declining yields suggest that money is flowing out of stocks and into bonds. Recovery above 1.70 percent is unlikely but would suggest another stock market rally.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.45 – ( 1.70 – 1.45 ) = 1.20

Latest stats from the Fed show holdings of Treasury notes and bonds increased by $3.9 billion over the last week, which may have contributed to the decline. Holdings of (short-term) Treasury bills fell to $14.6 billion, leaving little room for further “Twist” operations — where the Fed swaps short-term holdings for long-term Treasuries.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 11, 2012

S&P 500: Weak rally suggests down-turn

The S&P 500 is advancing on the weekly chart toward another test of 1420, but falling momentum warns of a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate a primary decline. Failure of primary support at 1270 would confirm, offering a target of 1170*. In the shorter term, recovery above 1370 would indicate a test of 1420. Breakout above 1420 is unlikely at this stage — especially with money flowing into bonds.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1270 – ( 1370 – 1270 ) = 1170

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 7, 2012

Falling Treasury yields: Money is flowing out of stocks

10-Year Treasury yields broke medium-term support at 1.55 percent, indicating another decline. Breach of support at 1.45 percent would confirm, offering a target of 1.20 percent*. Latest stats from the Fed show holdings of Treasury notes and bonds fell over the last week, so the fall is not due to “Operation Twist”. Declining yields suggest that the current stock market rally is likely to fail: money is flowing out of stocks and into bonds. Recovery above 1.70 percent is unlikely but would suggest another stock market rally.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.45 – ( 1.70 – 1.45 ) = 1.20

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 3, 2012

Australia: ASX 200

The ASX 200 continues to range between 3900/4000 and 4150. Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) oscillating around zero indicates uncertainty. Narrow consolidation below 4150 would be a bullish sign and breakout would test the May high of 4450. Reversal below 3900/4000 is less likely but would warn of a primary decline.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 3, 2012

Asian markets: India bullish while China weakens

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is testing medium-term resistance at 9000/9100. Breakout would test 10000. Troughs below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate weakness.

Nikkei 225 Index

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test resistance at 2250. Respect would confirm a primary down-trend — already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2250 – ( 2500 – 2250 ) = 2000

Wait for confirmation from a Shenzhen Composite index reversal below 880/900. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

Shenzhen Composite Index

Singapore Straits Times Index broke through medium-term resistance at 2900, headed for a test of 3050. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests that the primary up-trend is intact.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3050 + ( 3050 – 2900 ) = 3200

India’s Sensex displays a healthy bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating reversal to a primary up-trend. Breakout above 17000 suggests another test of 18500. And breach of 18500 would confirm the primary up-trend.

Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18500 + ( 18500 – 16000 ) = 21000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 3, 2012

UK and Europe: Tentative recovery

The FTSE 100 index broke resistance (and the descending trendline) at 5600/5620, suggesting the correction has ended. Oscillation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero is narrowing, indicating hesitancy. Follow-through above 5650 would strengthen the breakout signal — as would recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero — targeting 6000*. Reversal below 5600, however, would warn of a false signal.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5600 + ( 5600 – 5200 ) = 6000

Germany’s DAX is testing resistance at 6500; breakout would test the 2012 high of 7200. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) indicates buying pressure. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 6500 + ( 6500 – 6000 ) = 7000

The Madrid General Index is headed for a test of medium-term resistance at 750/760. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Penetration of resistance — and the long-term descending trendline — would indicate a bottom is forming.

Madrid General Index

Italy’s MIB Index shows a similar bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) — and on 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Recovery above 15000 would signal another test of long-term resistance at 17000.

MIB Index

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 13000 ) = 17000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

July 2, 2012

Treasury yields fall

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 1.55 percent. Falling yields suggest that the current stock market rally is likely to fail: money is flowing into bonds — not stocks. Failure of support would strengthen the warning. Recovery above 1.70 percent is less likely but would bolster the stock market rally.

Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.