Gold & Commodities Archives - Page 64 of 77

June 4, 2012

Gold rallies

Spot gold rallied late Friday, breaking the first line of resistance at $1600/ounce. Penetration of the declining trendline suggests that the down-trend is weakening, but 63-day Twiggs Momentum remains firmly below zero. Retracement that respects new support at $1600 would strengthen the bull signal, however, as would recovery of Momentum above zero.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 31, 2012

Commodities lead stocks lower

The CRB Commodities index is headed for a test of the 2010 low of 250. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a strong primary down-trend. Divergence from the S&P 500 index warns that stocks are likely to fall, following commodities down — at least to their 2011 lows.

CRB Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 290 – ( 330 – 290 ) = 250

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Crude: Brent and WTI Light

Brent Crude is headed for a test of primary support at $100/barrel. Failure would indicate a long-term decline to $75/barrel*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Nymex WTI Crude below $90/barrel, signals a primary down-trend. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $75/barrel — similar to Brent Crude.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 92 – ( 110 – 92 ) = 76

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 31, 2012

Spot gold tests $1530

The Dollar Index followed through after last week’s breakout above resistance at 81.50/82.00, confirming the fresh advance signaled by a 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero. Target for the advance is 86.00*.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

On the daily chart, spot gold tests medium-term support at $1530/ounce. Long tails indicate buying support but the rising dollar continues to apply downward pressure. Breach of support and follow-through below $1500 would signal a long-term decline to $1200/ounce*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) already indicates a primary down-trend. Recovery above $1600 is less likely but would indicate that the down-trend is weakening.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 24, 2012

Gold suffers from strong dollar

The US Dollar Index broke resistance at 81.80, signaling the start of a primary advance to 86.00*. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero indicates a strong up-trend. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 81.50/81.80. Respect would confirm the bull signal.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 82 + ( 82 – 78 ) = 86

Spot Gold is testing the band of support between $1500 and $1550/ounce. Wednesday’s long tail is evidence of buying support, but declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) warns of a primary down-trend. Another rally that respects resistance at $1600 would strengthen the bear signal. Breakout below $1500 would confirm, offering a target of $1200*. Recovery above $1600, while unlikely, would suggest another test of $1800.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1500 – ( 1800 – 1500 ) = 1200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 23, 2012

Crude: Brent and WTI Light

Brent Crude is broke medium-term support at $110/barrel and is headed for a test of the band of primary support between $100 and $103/barrel. Failure would indicate a long-term decline to $75/barrel*. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend.

ICE Brent Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 125 – 100 ) = 75

Nymex WTI Light Crude followed through below $90/barrel, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the signal. Expect a test of the 2011 low at $75/barrel (similar to Brent Crude).

Nymex WTI Light Crude

* Target calculation: 92 – ( 110 – 92 ) = 76

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 23, 2012

Commodities fall, stocks follow

The CRB Commodities Index is headed for a test of the 2010 low of 250 after breaking primary support at 295. The trough below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to follow.

CRB Commodities Index and S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 21, 2012

Kevin O'Leary: Don't buy gold stocks

Kevin O’Leary of O’Leary Funds/ ABC’s Shark Tank/ CBC’s Dragon’s Den.
Cash is king, buy dividend stocks. Buy gold, don’t buy gold stocks.

Hat tip to Kesil

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 20, 2012

Chinese economics: Is iron ore demand real?

Reuters video: Nicholas Zhu, ANZ Bank head of macro-economic data Asia, examines iron ore stockpiles at Qingdao port.

[gigya src=’http://www.reuters.com/resources_v2/flash/video_embed.swf?videoId=235214214&edition=BETAUS’ type=’application/x-shockwave-flash’ allowfullscreen=’true’ allowScriptAccess=’always’ width=’460′ height=’259′ wmode=’transparent’]

Hat tip to Houses and Holes

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

May 17, 2012

Commodities point to lower stock prices

The CRB Commodities Index broke support at 295, warning of another primary decline. Respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum strengthens the signal. Divergence between the S&P 500 Index and commodities warns that stocks are over-priced and likely to fall.

CRB Commodities Index and S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.