Category: US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index $DXY_us.

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Strong Dollar warns of Gold weakness

Falling crude prices have helped to strengthen the Dollar. Nymex Light Crude found support at $50/barrel, helped by an OPEC production cut, but the organization does not have the sway it once had. A test of $45/barrel is likely.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

The Dollar Index closed above 97, signaling an advance to 100 in the medium-term (next quarter). Penetration of the descending trendline on the Trend Index would strengthen the signal.

Dollar Index

Gold is likely to test support at $1180/ounce. Breach would warn of a decline to $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is testing long-term support at $14/ounce. Breach would offer a target of $10 but would also warn of similar weakness for Gold.

Spot Silver in USD

The All Ordinaries Gold Index is consolidating between 4500 and 5500, buoyed by a weaker Australian Dollar. But Gold is more volatile than the Aussie Dollar and further weakness is expected. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of 4500 would signal a primary decline.

Gold in Australian Dollars

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Falling Crude, stronger Dollar warn of Gold weakness

Nymex Light Crude is falling steeply. Breakout below the trend channel warns of reversal to a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $55/barrel would indicate a test of $45/barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Falling crude prices are likely to strengthen the Dollar. Dollar Index breakout above 100 would signal another primary advance. Penetration of the descending trendline on the Trend Index would also suggest another long-term advance.

Dollar Index

Falling crude prices and a strengthening Dollar are likely to weaken demand for Gold. Reversal below $1150 would signal a decline to $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).

Spot Gold in USD

Silver is testing primary support at $14/ounce. Breach would offer a target of $10 but would also warn of a primary down-trend for Gold.

Spot Silver in USD

A weakening Australian Dollar has so far offset the decline in the Dollar price of Gold. The chart below, however, shows strong resistance at $A 1750 to $A 1800. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure and penetration of the rising trendline on the price chart would threaten another test of LT support at $A 1350. Local gold miners would be likely to follow.

Gold in Australian Dollars

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Gold & Crude weaken as the Dollar lifts

Nymex Light Crude is testing support at $60/barrel on the long-term rising trendline. Breach would confirm a primary down-trend with a long-term target of $45/barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Crude and gold tend to rise and fall together. The long-term chart below compares gold and crude prices adjusted for inflation (CPI).

The bear rally in Gold met resistance below $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of $1050/ounce (the 2015 low).

Spot Gold in USD

Low crude prices tend to strengthen the Dollar (scale inverted on the chart below).

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 97. Breakout is likely and would further weaken demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

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Crude reversal undermines Gold rally

Nymex crude broke support at $65, warning of a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of $56/barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Crude and gold tend to rise and fall together, over the long-term, and falling crude prices warn of gold weakness.

The bear rally in Gold is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would offer a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Another major influence on Gold prices is Dollar strength. A strong Dollar is synonymous with lower gold prices. The Dollar Index is trending upwards but ran into resistance at 96.50/97.00.

Dollar Index

The reason is not hard to find as China’s central bank (PBOC) stepped in to support the Yuan at 14.5 US cents (6.9 to $1), selling Dollar reserves.

Chinese Yuan

The Aussie Dollar also strengthened as a result.

Australian Dollar

Australian Gold stocks continue to find support because of the weak currency (AUD) but a declining Trend Index warns of long-term weakness. Breach of support at 4500 would signal a primary down-trend.

All Ords Gold Index

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Gold rally expected to falter as Dollar strengthens

China’s Yuan continues to weaken while the Dollar index strengthens. Follow-through above 97 would signal another primary advance.

Dollar Index

A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. The bear rally is likely to meet stubborn resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The monthly chart of Spot Silver also shows a strong down-trend, testing primary support at $13.50/ounce.

Spot Silver

Crude oil is also showing signs of weakness, with a bearish divergence on the Trend Index. Breach of support at $65/barrel would warn of a primary down-trend.

Nymex Light Crude

In the long-term, gold and oil tend to rise and fall together.

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Gold bear rally boosts Aussie miners

China’s Yuan broke support at 14.50, warning of another decline.

Chinese Yuan

A weaker Yuan is likely to lead to Dollar strength. The Dollar Index respected support at 94 and follow-through above 96 would confirm another advance.

Dollar Index

A strengthening Dollar would weaken demand for Gold. Gold broke resistance at $1210/ounce, commencing a bear market rally. Expect resistance at $1250. Reversal below support at $1180 is unlikely at present but would warn of a decline to the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Aussie Dollar is in a primary down-trend with descending Trend Index peaks below zero warning of strong selling pressure.

Australian Dollar

The combination of a gold bear rally and a weak Aussie Dollar prompted a rally among Australian gold miners. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) broke resistance at 4900 and is testing 5100. Ascending troughs on the Trend Index indicate buying pressure and a test of 5400 is likely.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Dollar strength keeps gold bulls in check

Gold continues to find resistance at $1210/ounce. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of LT selling pressure but rising troughs suggest a secondary rally. Respect of resistance and the declining trendline would warn of another decline, offering a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Dollar Index found support at 94. Follow-through above 96.50 would confirm another advance. A strengthening Dollar is likely to weaken demand for Gold.

Dollar Index

The Aussie Dollar broke support at 71 US cents, prompting a weak rally among Australian gold miners. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is ranging between 4550 and 4900. Gold is more volatile than the currency and likely to determine long-term direction. A Trend Index peak below zero would signal continuation of the down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Aussie gold stocks rally

Gold continues to find resistance at $1210/ounce. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of resistance would indicate another decline and a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

Currencies

The PBOC is supporting the Yuan at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

Support for the Yuan is driving down the Dollar. Dollar Index breach of support at 95 warns of a correction to test 91. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. A falling Dollar is likely to boost demand for gold.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar benefited from the weaker greenback, rallying to test resistance at 73/73.5 US cents. Trend Index peaks below zero continue to warn of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

Gold Stocks

Australian gold stocks rallied despite the strengthening Aussie Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is likely to encounter stiff resistance between 4900 and 5100.  A Trend Index peak below zero would warn of further selling pressure and continuation of the down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Silver warns of further Gold weakness

Precious metals tend to trend or consolidate together, driven by similar investor motives. Spot silver is testing primary support at $14 per ounce, while a Trend Index peak at zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a primary down-trend.

Spot Gold in USD

Gold is still testing support at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline indicates another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce, similar to silver.

Spot Gold in USD

Currencies

The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 95, despite the weak Yuan. Bearish divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure but long tails indicate support. Breach of support at 95 is uncertain but would signal a correction to test 91 — boosting demand for gold.

Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar continues a strong down-trend, with Trend Index peaks below zero warning of selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

Gold Stocks

The falling Aussie Dollar has partially cushioned local gold stocks from weaker gold prices but gold is more volatile than the Dollar. The All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) is expected to break support at 4550, offering a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold stocks face selling pressure despite plunging Aussie Dollar

The Yuan continues to test support at 14.5 US cents.

CNY/USD

The Dollar Index recovered above support at 95. Respect of support would confirm another advance, with a long-term target of 103, but bearish divergence on the Trend Index still warns of selling pressure.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing resistance at $1200/ounce but Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Respect of the descending trendline would indicate another decline with a long-term target of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold in USD

The Australian Dollar is plunging, having broken short-term support at 72 US cents. Trend Index peaks below zero indicate strong selling pressure. Expect a test of the 2015/2016 low at 70 US cents.

Australian Dollar/USD

The falling Aussie Dollar may cushion local gold stocks, to some extent, from weaker gold prices but the All Ordinaries Gold Index (XGD) continues its downward path. Tall shadows on the last three candles flag selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 4550 is likely and would offer a long-term target of 4000/4100.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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