Fixed Income Archives - Page 16 of 17

June 16, 2012

Guess Who's Buying All the Bonds? (It's Not the Fed) – CNBC

The demand among average investors has swelled so much, in fact, that they bought more Treasurys in the first quarter than foreigners and the Fed combined.

Households picked up about $170 billion in the low-yielding government debt during the quarter, while foreigners increased their holdings by $110 billion.

via Guess Who’s Buying All the Bonds? (It’s Not the Fed) – US Business News – CNBC.

Comment:~ Jim Bianco points out: “If mom and pop were really the end buyers we would expect to see similarly booming numbers from the mutual fund industry. However….mutual fund purchases are a somewhat insignificant portion of domestic buying. Our guess is the domestic buyer is a leveraged carry trader, a mutual fund, a brokerage subsidiary or other group that does not have its own category so it gets ‘dumped’ into the default category of households.”

[Hat tip to Barry Ritholz]

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

May 31, 2012

Treasury yields fall as investors flee stocks

Treasury yields fell through the key support level of 1.70 percent as investors, seeking a safe haven, flowed into bonds. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of further easing.

10-Year US Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 1.70 – ( 2.40 – 1.70 ) = 1.0

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 23, 2012

Watch out! Is the Fed pushing us into another bubble? – Fortune's deals blog Term Sheet

The Fed’s actions have kept Treasury bond prices high (while keeping the government’s interest costs low), but the fundamentals do not support the high valuations, given the fiscal mess we are in. Sooner or later, the bond bubble will burst. History has shown that a structurally weak economy combined with a fiscally irresponsible government propped up by accommodative central-bank lending always ends badly.

….The biggest beneficiaries of loose money, are our profligate elected officials who refuse to come to grips with budget deficits and an exemption-laden tax code. As long as Treasury can borrow cheaply to paper over the real problems, politicians can demagogue about overspending (GOP) or undertaxing (Democrats) while dodging their responsibility to work together to fix our problems.

via Watch out! Is the Fed pushing us into another bubble? – The Term Sheet: Fortune’s deals blog Term Sheet.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 22, 2012

Pimco Eyes Aussie Bond Boom – WSJ

“We really are in a secular shift for greater demand for fixed income securities in Australia,” John Wilson, the head of the global bond giant’s [Pimco’s] Australia operations told Deal Journal Australia. “That’s why you will see increasing issuance in the domestic market by domestic issuers.”

“We are seeing this notably in our flows in the wealth management business. Private investors are seeking recurring income and capital stability,” he said.

In recent weeks some of Australia’s national champions–such as retailing giant Woolworths and conglomerate Wesfarmers–have issued local currency debt even as some of the country’s other big corporates have skipped local investors and borrowed elsewhere.

via Pimco Eyes Aussie Bond Boom – Deal Journal Australia – WSJ.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 17, 2012

MARC FABER: Beware The Unintended Consequences Of Money Printing

Marc Faber: I do not believe that the central banks around the world will ever, and I repeat ever, reduce their balance sheets. They’ve gone the path of money printing and once you choose that path you’re in it, and you have to print more money.

If you start to print, it has the biggest impact. Then you print more – it has a lesser impact unless you increase the rate of money printing very significantly. And, the third money printing has even less impact. And the problem is like the Fed: they printed money because they wanted to lift the housing market, but the housing market is the only asset that didn’t go up substantially.

In general, I think that the purchasing power of money has diminished very significantly over the last ten, twenty, thirty years, and will continue to do so.

via MARC FABER: Beware The Unintended Consequences Of Money Printing.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 17, 2012

The Power of Cheap Money | Puru Saxena | Safehaven.com

Mr. Bernanke is intentionally suppressing the nominal risk free rate of return and he is forcing investors to search for yield. By keeping interest rates artificially low and well below the rate of inflation, the Federal Reserve has engineered this impressive rally in American stocks.

Figure 2 captures the real US Treasury Yield Curve [after deducting inflation] across various maturities. As you can see, the real yields of the entire US Treasury Yield Curve (except the 30-Year US Treasury Bond) are currently negative.

Real US Treasury Yields

via The Power of Cheap Money | Puru Saxena | Safehaven.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 14, 2012

Treasury yields surge

The yield on 10-year US Treasury Notes has surged to test resistance at 2.40 percent. Breakout would indicate a rally to the long-term trendline at 3.00 percent on the Monthly chart. Rising treasury yields signal that investors are migrating out of bonds and into stocks, especially when the Fed is attempting to suppress long-term rates.

10-Year Treasury Yields

February 2, 2012

The Euro Crisis Makes Absolutely No Sense – Brett Arends (WSJ)

WSJ: Mean Street

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Brett Arends exposes flaws in Eurozone efforts to resolve the currency crisis.

January 19, 2012

Treasuries still bearish

10-Year Treasury yields remain weak. Look for recovery above 2.40 percent to confirm the primary up-trend in stocks.

10-Year Treasury Yields

November 22, 2011

RAFI ETF Investing: Q&A With Rob Arnott | ETF Database

When you think about capitalization weighting in stocks the drawbacks are fairly evident. When you talk about cap weighting in bonds, the drawbacks are flagrantly obvious.

With cap weighting, consider that Australia has three times the GDP of Greece, and Greece has three times the debt burden of Australia. Why should we want to own three times as much in Greek debt as Australian debt? In fact, Australia’s ability to service debt is at least three times that of Greece, and so wouldn’t it make more sense to have an index for bonds that weights countries’ bond debt in accordance with GDP and other measures of the economic footprint of a country?

via RAFI ETF Investing: Q&A With Rob Arnott | ETF Database.