The recently departed head of research says the RBA should have hiked rates higher to head off inflation, and the Board lacked the expertise to challenge the governor on rate decisions:
Acknowledgments
- Chris Joye: RBA story in the AFR
Another S&P 500 advance likely
Stocks are poised for a breakout, signaling a fresh advance on the S&P 500. All eyes are focused on the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, with an expected rate cut of at least 25 basis points.
Stocks
The S&P 500 is testing resistance at its previous high of 5670, while Trend Index troughs above zero indicate buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 6000.
The equal-weighted index ($IQX) has already broken resistance. Retracement respected support at 7000, confirming our target of 7400.
The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) lags, with the Trend Index struggling to recover above zero. A breakout above 225 would offer a target of 250.
Financial Markets
Liquidity in financial markets is gradually tightening, which could act as a handbrake on any advances. A contracting Fed balance sheet, net of TGA and reverse repo (RRP) liabilities, shows the effect of regular monthly QT reductions.
Commercial bank reserves are shrinking as a result.
Bitcoin struggles to hold above support at $60K, highlighting the effects of tightening liquidity.
Treasury Markets
Ten-year Treasury yields are rallying to test resistance at 4.0%, but long-term buying pressure—signaled by Trend Index peaks below zero—is expected to keep yields low for the next quarter.
Bank of Japan
A wild card that could disrupt the system is BOJ monetary policy. The last rate hike, to 0.25%, caused the Dollar to fall sharply against the Yen and a sell-off in US financial markets as carry trade positions were unwound.
Further rate hikes are on the cards, with the next BOJ meeting scheduled in October. Jim Grant from Grant’s Interest Rate Observer:
CPI excluding fresh food in Japan’s capital grew at a 2.4% annual pace in August, data released yesterday show, topping the 2.2% consensus expectation and marking its fourth consecutive sequential increase. That data series typically serves as a leading indicator for broader price pressures in the world’s fourth-largest economy; nationwide CPI data is due on Sept. 19.
Pointing to transitory factors including expiring government subsidies for utility bills and rice shortages, Norinchukin Research Institute chief economist Takeshi Minami predicted to Reuters that “the underlying inflation trend will continue to moderate in coming months.”
However, percolating wage growth – with average pay rising 5.2% this year per data compiled by Japanese Trade Union Confederation, the highest in more than three decades – could bolster the Bank of Japan’s appetite for further tightening following the July 31 rate increase to 0.25% from a 0% to 0.1% range, as BoJ chief Kazuo Ueda suggested to parliament last week.
Considering the acute financial spasm which followed that rate adjustment and accompanying unwind of yen-funded carry trade positions, the prospect of a sequel would presumably be front of mind for Mr. Market. Investors remain confident that such an outcome is in fact far-fetched, with interest rate futures assigning only 9% odds of further tightening at the BoJ’s Oct. 18 meeting.
Some observers aren’t so sure. “My money is on another rate hike in October,” Moody’s senior economist Stefan Angrick told CNBC Friday, further predicting at least one further uptick early next year. Bloomberg economist Taro Kimura likewise anticipates an October shift to 0.5%, writing that Thursday’s data illustrate “a broad upswing in service prices,” and “increases the risk that the BoJ can’t afford to wait to pare stimulus.”
The destabilizing effect of further BOJ rate hikes should not be underestimated.
Inflation
US inflation, on the other hand, remains subdued. Core PCE inflation ticked to 2.6% for the 12 months to July, but the Trimmed Mean PCE rate declined to 2.7%.
Monthly core PCE and the headline rate for July are more encouraging, with both growing at an annualized rate below 2.0%.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index remains in a strong downtrend, with Trends Index peaks below zero, warning of long-term selling pressure. We expect the latest rally to encounter resistance at 102.50.
Gold retraced to $2,500 per ounce, with a likely test of support at $2,475 as long-term Treasury yields rally and the Dollar strengthens. However, the precious metal is in a strong up-trend, and respect of support would confirm our target of $2,600.
Silver is weaker than gold because of weak industrial demand from China’s solar industry. A breach of its current support level near $29 per ounce would warn of a decline to test long-term support at $26.50.
Crude Oil
Brent crude continues to build a base between $76 and $82 per barrel. Low crude prices ease inflationary pressures in the global economy and improve the prospect of lower interest rates.
Base Metals
Copper penetrated its descending trendline, suggesting that a base is forming. A correction that respects support at $8,600 per tonne would strengthen the signal.
Aluminum rallied strongly, indicating improving industrial demand. A breakout above $2,500 per tonne would be a bullish sign for copper.
Conclusion
Financial markets warn of gradual tightening, but low long-term interest rates, subdued inflation, and the prospect of a Fed rate cut at the FOMC meeting on September 17-18 are all bullish for stocks. We expect the S&P 500 to break through resistance at its previous high of 5670, confirming our target of 6000.
However, investors need to be aware of the risks ahead in 2025.
After the November elections, Treasury is expected to shift its quarterly funding towards longer-term coupons to take advantage of lower yields. The resulting increase in supply could drive up long-term yields while reducing liquidity in financial markets. On the other side of the Pacific, further rate rises by the Bank of Japan could spark a sell-off in US financial markets as more Yen-financed carry trades are unwound.
Either of the above actions could contract liquidity in financial markets, causing another stock sell-off.
We remain bullish on gold as long as long-term interest rates remain low, weakening the Dollar. Silver is likely to underperform due to weak industrial demand.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Prices
- Grant’s Interest Rate Observer: Tokyo Drift
Short, medium and long-term outlook
We conclude with a summary of our short-, medium-, and long-term outlook. But first, let’s examine today’s market activity.
Stocks
The S&P 500 is edging higher, gaining 0.3% yesterday, while the strengthening Trend Index indicates that more buyers are returning to the market.
The advance is also broadening, with the S&P 500 equal-weighed index ($IQX) testing resistance at the recent high of 7000. Breakout would offer a target of 7400.
Financial Markets
The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.52 on August 16, signaling that monetary conditions are again easing.
However, Bitcoin continues to consolidate around $60K, warning that financial market conditions are still unsettled.
Treasury Markets
Ten-year Treasury yields are headed for a test of support at 3.7% while declining Trend Index peaks below zero warn of growing long-term buying pressure, driving down yields.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts are driving yields lower and weakening the Dollar, which is bullish for gold.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index is testing the band of long-term support between 100 and 101. Declining Trend Index peaks below zero warn of growing long-term selling pressure. A breach of 100 would signal a bear market, with a long-term target of 94.
Gold is retracing to test support between $2,475 and $2,500 per ounce. Rising Trend Index troughs above zero indicate growing long-term buying pressure. Respect of support is likely to confirm our target of $2,600.
Silver is expected to test support at $29 per ounce. Respect is likely and would confirm our target of $31.50.
Crude Oil
Brent crude is testing support between $76 and $77 per barrel. A breach would offer a target of $72 to $73 per barrel, the lows from 2023.
Conclusion
Our short-, medium-, and long-term outlook:
Short-term
Easy monetary conditions will likely continue until after the November election, with a September Fed rate cut of 0.25% almost certain. The S&P 500 is expected to test resistance at its recent high of 5670. Breakout is likely to offer a target of 6000.
Falling interest rates and a weakening Dollar are expected to boost demand for gold and silver, with short-term targets of $2,600 and $31.50 per ounce, respectively.
Medium-term
Our 2025 outlook is for weak industrial demand from China and increased push-back against their dumping of excess production in international markets. Resulting low crude oil and base metal prices are expected to ease global inflationary pressures. Central banks are likely to reduce interest rates to cushion the impact of a contraction in economic activity.
Low long-term yields and a Dollar bear market are expected to be bullish for gold and silver. We expect the S&P 500 to peak at 6000, with stocks growing increasingly bearish as earnings contract and activity declines despite low interest rates.
Long-term
China is expected to suffer from a decade of low growth as it struggles to deal with excessive debt levels and overinvestment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity. The US and most developed nations also struggle with high debt levels and will endeavor to keep real interest rates near zero. High asset inflation will likely result, causing strong demand for precious metals, real estate, and stocks.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Prices
Stocks rally on PPI fall
Stocks were boosted by falling producer price index (PPI) growth, which indicates low CPI readings are likely later today. Gold continues to test resistance at $2,475 per ounce, boosted by falling long-term Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar.
Stocks
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 5400 and is headed for a test of the descending trendline at 5500. The Trend Index is rising but below zero, warning of longer-term selling pressure.
The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) is testing resistance between 210 and 215, with the Trend Index indicating secondary buying pressure.
Stocks will likely receive a further boost if we get low CPI growth for July, as expected.
Financial Markets
Bitcoin retraced to test its new support level at $60K [red line]. Respect of support is likely and will confirm rising liquidity in financial markets.
Treasury Markets
Ten-year Treasury yields are falling, headed for a test of support between 3.7% and 3.8%. Low Treasury yields are bullish for stocks, bonds, and especially gold.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index is testing support at 102.5, while a Trend Index peak below zero indicates long-term selling pressure. A weak Dollar is also bullish for gold.
Gold continues to test resistance at $2,475 per ounce, while rising Trend Index troughs above zero signal long-term buying pressure. A breakout is likely, offering a target of $2,600.
Silver remains in a downtrend because of weak industrial demand from the Chinese solar industry.
PPI Inflation
The producer price index (PPI) dipped to 2.27% growth for the 12 months to July.
Monthly growth collapsed to an annualized rate of 1.2%.
Services inflation tends to be the most persistent, so a fall to 2.56% annual growth in services PPI is encouraging.
Monthly services PPI contracted at an annualized rate of 1.9%, which flags a slowing economy.
Low PPI inflation is encouraging and increases the likelihood of low CPI readings later today. Negative services PPI warns that the economy may contract, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September.
Energy
Nymex WTI crude respected resistance at $80 per barrel.
Brent crude similarly found resistance at $82 per barrel.
Low crude prices are expected to ease inflationary pressures, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.
Conclusion
We expect low CPI readings later today to further boost stocks. Falling long-term Treasury yields are bullish for stocks, bonds, and especially gold. The weakening Dollar is also bullish for gold, which continues to test resistance at $2,475 per ounce. A gold breakout is likely and will offer a target of $2,600.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Prices
Gold threatens breakout as stocks pause ahead of CPI report
The rally in stocks paused ahead of tomorrow’s CPI update. However, gold threatens another breakout, boosted by low Treasury yields and a weakening Dollar.
Stocks
The S&P 500 stalled below resistance at 5400. The Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure, and another test of support at 5200 is likely.
The Nasdaq QQQ ETF shows similar hesitancy at resistance at 450. Trend Index peaks below zero again warn of strong selling pressure, and we expect another test of support between 418 and 420.
Treasury Markets
Ten-year Treasury yields respected resistance at 4.0%, warning of another test of support between 3.7% and 3.8%. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong buying pressure, driving yields lower.
Low Treasury yields are bullish for gold.
Dollar & Gold
Declining Treasury yields are also bearish for the Dollar. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure and we expect another test of support at 102.50.
The Japanese Yen has similarly found resistance at 148, while the Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure. We expect another test of support between 141 and 142 against the USD.
Low Treasury yields and a weak Dollar have boosted demand for gold. Spot gold is testing resistance at its recent high of $2,475 per ounce, with Trend Index troughs above zero signaling buying pressure. A breakout is likely and would offer a target of $2,600.
Silver broke resistance at $27.50 per ounce but remains in a downtrend until recovery above $29.
Crude Oil
Brent crude broke resistance at $80 per barrel on fears of an outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel.
Iran could carry out “significant” attacks on Israel as early as “this week,” United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday.
“We have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks,” he told reporters, adding that Washington shared Israeli assessments that such a move “could be this week.” ~ Deutsche Welle
In other news, OPEC announced that they had cut forecasts for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, citing weak demand from China. The cuts may delay OPEC members’ planned production increases. (Reuters)
Conclusion
Stocks show hesitancy ahead of tomorrow’s inflation report. Further weakening of CPI is likely and is expected to lower long-term Treasury yields.
Gold is testing resistance at its recent high of $2,475 per ounce. A breakout is likely, with a target of $2,600.
Crude oil prices rallied on fears of an attack on Israel by Iran “as early as this week.” However, weak demand from China is expected to maintain the current bear market.
Acknowledgments
Worst is over……for now
The worst is over. For now.
Buyers manage to halt the slide in the S&P 500 at close to the 5200 support level. Expect further tests but support is likely to hold.
The Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) similarly encountered strong support at 200. We expect retracement to test resistance at 210 but another test of support is likely.
Ten-year Treasury yields are testing long-term support at 3.8%. The low level should boost demand for stocks (value) and precious metals.
Dollar Index found support at 102.50 on the weekly chart below. Retracement is expected to test resistance at 103 but another test of support is again likely.
Bitcoin broke support at $56K but is now retracing to test the new rtesistance level. Respect would confirm the global liquidity contraction, possibly forcing the Fed to intervene.
Brent crude is testing support between $76 and $77 per barrel despite rising fears of escalation in the Middle East. We expect strong support at this level and retracement to test resistance at $80 is likely.
Conclusion
The worst is over for now but it would be sensible to wait until the dust settles.
Though we couldn’t resist a few cheeky bids on stocks we have been following for a while.
Death of the Yen carry trade
Markets seem convinced that the recent stock sell-off in the US is due to growth concerns — after a weak labor report. We think they are mistaken. The real cause of the sell-off is the unwinding Yen carry trade.
Hedge funds have been making a killing on the Yen carry trade, but they just got killed. Borrowing cheaply in Yen and investing in stocks and Treasuries in the US, the trade benefited from ultra-low interest rates in Japan, far higher short-term rates in the US, massive appreciation in the top ten stocks on the S&P 500, and a rapidly weakening Yen against the Dollar.
But the Bank of Japan just pulled the rug from under them, raising interest rates and indicating that they plan to normalize monetary policy over time. The move caused a sharp rise in the Japanese Yen, with the US Dollar plunging below 150.
Japanese stocks followed, possibly due to concerns over the impact of a strong Yen on export sales.
The contagion soon spread to neighboring markets.
Stocks
Unwinding carry trades caused a sell-off in US stocks as traders hastily closed their leveraged positions. The S&P 500 broke support at 5400, and the Trend Index crossed to below zero, warning of a correction to test 5200.
The equal-weighted index ($IQX) similarly broke support at 6800, offering a target of 6600. The long tail indicates strong buying pressure but this often fails, or takes several days, to reverse a sharp market fall.
There was nowhere to hide, with the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) also breaking support and the Trend Index dipping below zero.
Treasury Markets
The Fed left rates unchanged this week but indicated that rate cuts will likely commence in September. Treasury yields fell but the primary driver was the strong flight to safety from the stock sell-off, with the 10-year yield plunging to a low 3.8%. We expect retracement to test resistance at 4.0% but the Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong buying, with downward pressure on yields.
Financial Markets
Financial market liquidity remains steady. The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.58, indicating further monetary easing.
Commercial bank reserves at the Fed edged lower for the third consecutive week but the changes were marginal.
Bitcoin is retracing to test support at $60K but shows no sign of a significant liquidity contraction at this stage.
Dollar & Gold
Unwinding carry trades also caused a sharp fall on the Dollar, with the Dollar Index testing support at 103.
Gold failed to get much of a lift from the flight to safety, with most of the flow going to Treasuries.
Silver, likewise, failed to benefit.
Energy
Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, presumably by Israel. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed that Israel would pay a price for killing the Hamas leader on Iranian soil, raising fears of escalation.
However, concerns over Middle East supply failed to move crude prices, with markets dominated by record US production of 13.3 million barrels per day.
Nymex WTI crude is headed for a test of support between $72 and $73 per barrel. Breach would offer a target of $68. The US Department of Energy will likely support prices at this level, refilling the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), as many shale producers’ cash costs are around $60 per barrel. Lower prices risk a drop in production as producers shut marginal wells.
Uranium
Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SRUUF) retreated below support at 18.00, confirming a bear market for uranium. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.
Base Metals
China over-invested in manufacturing capacity in an attempt to compensate for falling investment in their troubled real estate and infrastructure sectors. They now face resistance from international trading partners, unwilling to accept the massive surge in Chinese exports of manufactured goods and surplus steel and base metals. The dispute will likely cause increased trade protection and a sharp decline in global trade.
The down-trend in copper and aluminum is expected to continue.
Labor Market
A weak July labor report reinforced the Fed’s stance on early rate cuts, with job growth slowing to 114 thousand in July.
The normally reliable Sahm recession indicator broke above 0.50 to indicate a recession. But the unemployment rate is rising off an unusually low base, so this time could be different.
Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. (Claudia Sahm)
Layoffs fell to 1.5 million in June which is different from what one would expect when the unemployment rate rises.
Average weekly hours fell to 34.2, however, usually a warning that economic activity is slowing.
Job openings of 8.2 million in June are still above unemployment, indicating a tight labor market.
Continued claims for unemployment remain below 2.0 million, also indicating a tight labor market. Above 3.0 million would warn of recession.
Average Hourly Earnings
Average hourly earnings growth declined to an annualized 2.75%, indicating that inflationary pressures are easing.
Economy
Aggregate hours worked are growing at 1.3% year-on-year, suggesting low but positive GDP growth in the third quarter.
Heavy truck sales also held up well in July, indicating sustained economic activity.
Employment in cyclical sectors — Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport & Warehousing — also grew by 40 thousand jobs in July, showing no sign of a recession.
ISM Manufacturing
ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 46.8% but remained above the 42.5% threshold typically accompanying a recession.
Though declining new orders indicate some slowing ahead.
Conclusion
Stocks are expected to undergo a correction, with the S&P 500 testing support at 5200. Sales are fueled by unwinding carry trades as the Japanese Yen sharply strengthened after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and indicated that they plan to normalize monetary policy.
The sell-off in stocks fueled a flight to safety which mainly benefited Treasuries, causing a sharp fall in the 10-year yield to 3.8%.
Gold and silver were left on the sidelines but could still benefit from low long-term interest rates and a weakening Dollar.
Declining crude oil and base metal prices warn of weak industrial demand from China. China’s efforts to compensate by exporting excess production is likely to meet stiff resistance from trading partners. Increased trade barriers are expected to further slow Chinese manufacturing and commodity imports, impacting Australia and other resource-based economies.
The Sahm rule warns of a US recession but the unemployment rate is rising from an unusually low base and there are plenty of signs of continued robust economic activity in the US economy. Expectations of a recession are likely premature, with a slow-down more likely to occur in 2025.
The full impact of a hawkish Bank of Japan monetary policy on US Treasury and financial markets should not be underestimated. However, the change is likely to be gradual, with frequent consultation with the US Treasury to minimize disruption after the initial impact of unwinding carry trades.
Acknowledgements
- Associated Press: Mourners bury Hamas chief Haniyeh in Qatar as more escalation looms over the Middle East
- ISM: Manufacturing PMI
- Wolf Richter: Japanese Stocks Plunge, Yen Rises from the Ashes as BOJ Hikes, Ends Free Money, and Starts QT
- Jim Grant: Wing and a Prayer
- Charles Schwab: Stock Market Update
- EIA: Crude Field Production
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Prices
Stocks battered by headwinds from Asia
Falling demand from China and rising inflation in Japan are both having an impact on stocks and Treasury markets. Precious metals have also suffered from the sell-off, while crude and industrial metals warn of a global contraction.
Stocks
The top 7 technology stocks all fell, led by a steep plunge in Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), two stocks with considerable exposure to China.
The Nasdaq plunged 3.7%, its second 3.0% draw-down in July confirms selling pressure signaled by declining Trend Index peaks. Lawrence MacDonald:
The NDX went 17 months without a 3.0% drawdown. To us this means a lot. Looking back 20 years, these events come in patterns and clusters, NOT isolated events. This speaks to high volatility ahead.
The S&P 500 recorded its first 2.0% draw-down in 357 trading days. Declining Trend Index peaks reflect selling pressure. Breach of support at 5400 is likely and would offer a target of 5200.
The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) broke support at 6800, offering a target of 6600.
Declines were across the board, with both the Russell 1000 Large Cap ETF [blue] and Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF [pink] falling sharply.
Treasury Market
Two-year Treasury yields are falling in anticipation of an early rate cut by the Fed.
But 10-Year yields respected support at 4.20%, signaling a test of 4.5%.
Liquidity in financial markets is strong but rising long-term yields could come from Japanese selling in support of the Yen.
Jim Grant on the prospects for US and Japanese interest rates:
How the turntables have turned: as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan each prepare to render their respective rate decisions next week, recent events suggest a shift in the zeitgeist. Thus, former New York Fed president William Dudley took to the Bloomberg Opinion page Wednesday to lobby his former colleagues for a July cut, citing a weakening labor market along with ebbing inflationary pressures and moderating wage growth.
“I’ve long been in the ‘higher for longer’ camp. . . [but] the facts have changed, so I’ve changed my mind,” Dudley writes…..
Monetary crosswinds are swirling in the Far East. Futures assess the likelihood of a July BoJ hike from the current 0% to 0.1% range at 72%, up from 51% three weeks ago. Similarly, more than 90% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg “see the risk” that the BoJ will opt to pull the trigger, turning the page on its longstanding negative, now, zero-rates policy in the face of mounting price pressures.
To that end, core CPI grew a 2.6% annual clip in June, remaining north of the bank’s self-assigned 2% goal for the 27th consecutive month. On Friday, Tokyo’s Cabinet Office bumped its forecasted inflation rate over the fiscal year ending March 2025 to 2.8% from 2.5%.
“We expect underlying inflation to remain around 2% until early 2025, which we think will prompt the BoJ to hike rates both this month and in October,” writes Marcel Thielant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, adding that pronounced currency weakness is placing upward pressure on the price level, as evidenced by a recent pickup in the “other industrial products” CPI component.
The prospect of simultaneous Fed and BoJ policy pivots duly resonates in the currency market, as the yen has snapped higher by 5% over the past three weeks to 154 per dollar after marking a near 40-year low against the buck. Hefty outlays from the Ministry of Finance in service of propping up the yen – estimated by Reuters at $38 billion in July alone – have added oomph to the present course correction.
“This week has seen more pronounced unwinding of carry trades, underscoring the concentration of short JPY positioning that is now facing intense pressure from Ministry of Finance intervention to support the [yen],” Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac Banking Corp, commented to Bloomberg this morning. “Local politicians have become more vocal about the economic dangers from unfettered JPY weakness,” he added.
Financial Markets
Monetary easing continues, with the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index declining to -0.58% on July 19, signaling rising liquidity in financial markets.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar Index continues to test support at 104, despite strengthening long-term Treasury yields.
Gold fell to $2,375 per ounce, signaling a test of long-term support at $2,300. Respect of $2,300 remains likely and would be a long-term bull signal for gold.
Silver fell to $28 per ounce, signaling a bear market driven by falling industrial demand. Expect a test of support at $26.
Industrial demand for silver is falling as Chinese solar manufacturers face severe overcapacity:
China should push struggling solar manufacturers to exit the market as soon as possible to reduce severe overcapacity in a sector that’s vital to the energy transition, according to a major industry group. Central and local government, financial institutions, and companies should coordinate to speed up industry consolidation, Wang Bohua, head of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at a solar conference in Zhejiang province on Thursday. ~ Bloomberg
Crude Oil
Nymex WTI crude ticked up slightly but is unlikely to reverse its steep down-trend, headed for a test of support between $72 and $73 per barrel.
Low crude prices are likely to lead to falling inflation, increasing pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates.
Industrial Metals
Copper and aluminum continue in a strong down-trend as Chinese demand falls.
Iron ore has so far respected support at $106 per tonne. The steel industry faces similar overcapacity to other industrial metals and has only survived so far by exporting steel, driving down prices in international markets.
But resistance is growing. Iron ore is likely to plunge if international markets, like India below, erect barriers to Chinese dumping.
Conclusion
Financial market liquidity is strengthening but stocks and Treasury markets are being battered by headwinds from Asia.
The Bank of Japan is expected to hike interest rates at its next meeting in response to rising inflation caused by the weakening Japanese Yen. The result is likely to be bearish for US Treasuries, driving up long-term yields.
Falling demand from China is likely to impact on revenues from Western multinationals with large exposure, leading to a correction in stocks as growth prospects fade.
The probability of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting grows increasingly likely. Inflationary pressures are declining — as crude oil plunges in response to weak global demand — and economic headwinds are rising.
Gold and silver are likely to diverge. Silver is likely to enter a bear market as industrial demand from China fades, while gold is likely to benefit from safe-haven demand as the global economy contracts.
Industrial metals are already in a bear market which is likely to worsen as international resistance to China exporting its overcapacity grows.
Acknowledgements
- Jim Grant: Yen Diagram
- Lawrence MacDonald: Nasdaq Volatility
- Michael Pettis: Chinese solar manufacturers warns about “severe overcapacity”
- Bloomberg: Chinese Solar Group Urges Faster Consolidation as Glut Deepens
- CNBC: 2-Year Treasury Yields
- Macrobusiness: Iron ore trapdoor opens
Stocks and precious metals headed for a correction
Stocks are retreating across the board after climbing to dizzy heights in recent weeks. They continue to enjoy support, however, from falling Treasury yields and robust financial market liquidity. Support from crude oil is less certain, with a potential up-trend that could delay interest rate cuts.
Gold and silver are also retreating after strong gains in recent weeks. The correction appears to be a secondary movement. Base metals copper and aluminum are also weakening but the sell-off appears far stronger.
Stocks
Three out of seven mega-caps in the S&P 500 (Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta Platforms) show gains on Thursday, while four declined.
The S&P 500 as a whole declined steeply, headed for a test of support at 5500.
The equal-weighted index ($IQX) took a similar pounding, breaking support at 6900. Retracement that respects the new resistance level would confirm a target of 6600.
The retreat is across the board, with the Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF (IWM) [pink] falling faster than Russell 1000 Large Caps ETF (IWB) [blue] after spectacular gains earlier in the week.
Treasuries
Ten-year Treasury yields are retracing to test resistance at 4.2%. Respect is likely and would confirm our short-term target of 4.0%. Declining Trend Index peaks below zero continue to warn of downward pressure on yields. The low inflation outlook is bullish for bonds.
Financial Markets
Commercial bank reserves at the Fed finished largely unchanged for the week ended Wednesday, July 17, suggesting stable liquidity levels.
Bitcoin is retracing to test support at $60K; respect would signal rising liquidity in financial markets.
Labor Market
Initial claims climbed to 243K for the week ended July 13. This still well below levels normally seen leading up to a recession.
Continued unemployment below 2.0m indicate a tight labor market.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator shows signs of a recovery after initially warning of a recession with a fall below -5.0%.
Dollar & Gold
The Dollar index reversed its sharp fall from Wednesday. Penetration of the descending trendline would warn of another test of 105 but we think this is unlikely considering the fall in Treasury yields.
Gold retreated below support at $2,450 per ounce, indicating another test of $2,400. Respect of $2,400 would signal another attempt at $2,500, while breach would warn of a correction to $2,300.
Silver followed through below $30, headed for a test of primary support at $29.
Declining Trend Index peaks warn of medium-term selling pressure. But respect of support at $29 per ounce would suggest a target of $35 per ounce.
Crude Oil
Nymex WTI crude steadied at close to $83 per barrel. Respect of resistance at $84 would be a strong bear signal.
Brent crude is similarly testing resistance at $86 per barrel. Breach of support at $84 would be a strong bear signal.
Base Metals
Copper broke support at $9,400 per metric ton. Expect retracement to test the new resistance level but respect is likely and would confirm the long-term target of $8,000.
Copper and aluminum track each other closely. The down-trend below has a likely target of $2,200 and is bearish for copper.
Conclusion
Stocks and precious metals appear headed for a much-needed correction after climbing to dizzy heights in recent weeks.
Of the three pillars, falling Treasury yields and robust financial market liquidity continue to support stocks. But crude oil is less certain, with a potential up-trend that would threaten higher inflation and could delay interest rate cuts.
Gold and silver are also retreating, after strong gains in recent weeks, in what appears to be a secondary correction. Support would provide a base for further gains.
But weakness in copper and aluminum is more concerning, signaling slowing demand from China which could easily trigger a global recession.
Acknowledgements
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Prices
- Conference Board: US Leading Indicators
Australian job growth surprise
Australian jobs grew by a surprising 50.2K, compared to consensus estimates of 20K, with total employment reaching 14.4 million.
But employment per capita remains steady at 64% because of the huge swell in immigration.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, while trend remained steady at 4.0%, as the participation rate grew.
Total hours worked increased to 1.97 billion, a 1.3% increase in the trend since June 2023.
Average hours worked (trend) declined to 136.6 hours in June, from 138.6 hours 12 months ago, reflecting slowing demand growth.
Conclusion
Westpac believe that the strong June labor report points to a soft landing ahead. We are more skeptical. Soft landings are often promised and seldom materialize.
China has reported deflation for the fifth quarter in a row. When your biggest trading partner suffers from deflation, it generally is bad news for you as well.
Acknowledgements
- ABS: Labour Force, Australia
- Ryan Wells, Westpac: June Labour Force: ‘soft’ landing in sight
- Adem Tumerkan: China Deflation Chart