US & Canada Archives - Page 138 of 171

May 2, 2012

FRB| Governor Tarullo: Regulatory Reform since the Financial Crisis

It is sobering to recognize that, more than four years after the failure of Bear Stearns began the acute phase of the financial crisis, so much remains to be done–in implementing reforms that have already been developed, in modifying or supplementing these reforms as needed, and in fashioning a reform program to address shadow banking concerns. For some time my concern has been that the momentum generated during the crisis will wane or be redirected to other issues before reforms have been completed. As you can tell from my remarks today, this remains a very real concern.

via FRB: Speech–Tarullo, Regulatory Reform since the Financial Crisis–May 2, 2012.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 30, 2012

Fedex

Bellwether transport stock Fedex continues to test support at $88, the neckline for a double top reversal. Long tails on the last two candles suggest short-term buying pressure, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. A close below $86.50 would confirm that economic activity is declining.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 96 – 88 ) = 80

long-term

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 continues to consolidate between 675 and 700. Upward breakout would suggest a primary advance to 775*, while failure of support would target the primary level at 650. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure, favoring resumption of the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 725 + ( 725 – 675 ) = 775

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 30, 2012

US: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 respected support at 1350/1370, again confirming the primary up-trend signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum in December 2011. Immediate target for the advance is 1450*. Reversal below 1350 is unlikely but would warn of a correction to 1300.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1150 ) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 gapped above 2700, on its way to a re-test of resistance at 2800. Completion of the flag formation indicates another primary advance. Reversal below 2650 is unlikely but would warn of a stronger correction. Retreat of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would also give a bear warning, while respect of the zero line would indicate buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2650 ) = 2950

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 26, 2012

Forex: Canada's Loonie breaks out

The Loonie broke through resistance at $1.01 against the greenback, indicating an advance to the 2011 high of $1.06. This confirms the earlier signal when 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero.

Canadian Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 25, 2012

An earnings season only a pessimist could love – The Globe and Mail

With more than 25 per cent of S&P 500 companies having reported their first-quarter results, 80 per cent have exceeded analysts’ consensus profit estimates – a record pace, and well above the historical average of 62 per cent.

….The record “beat rate,” as earnings trackers call it, can’t gloss over the fact that earnings forecasts have been in decline for months – leaving expectations so low that topping them is a dubious achievement……..Major earnings-tracking services such as Factset, Thomson Reuters Research and S&P Capital IQ expect S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent for the quarter ended March 31. That would be the weakest profit growth in more than two years.

via An earnings season only a pessimist could love – The Globe and Mail.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 25, 2012

Durable-Goods Orders Fall – WSJ.com

March orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, which economists consider a proxy for business investment, fell 0.8%. The weakness extended to a host of categories, including machinery, computers and primary metals. Economists cautioned that special factors likely made the report appear somewhat worse than the underlying trend. First, the December expiration of a government tax credit for business investment caused many companies to move ahead new orders, which translated into artificial weakness in the early-year figures.

via Durable-Goods Orders Fall – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 23, 2012April 18, 2024

Apple AAPL correction

Apple with its massive market capitalization holds significant sway over the Nasdaq 100. Its monthly chart reflects a strong bull trend, with 63-day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero since early 2009, before a massive 50%+ gain over the last 3 months. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warned of strong resistance and the stock is now signaling a correction.
Apple Monthly Chart

Are we going to see a short correction followed by another surge, or is this a full-blown correction back to the long-term rising trendline? The daily chart already shows a bullish hammer candlestick, hinting at reversal.

Apple Daily Chart

When we break the day down into 30 minute candles, however, we can see retracement encountered a new resistance level at $575. Breakout would indicate a rally to $600, but not necessarily the end of the correction, while reversal below support at $568/$570 would signal another decline and test the lower trend channel around $550.

Apple 30 Minute Candlesticks

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 23, 2012

Watch out! Is the Fed pushing us into another bubble? – Fortune's deals blog Term Sheet

The Fed’s actions have kept Treasury bond prices high (while keeping the government’s interest costs low), but the fundamentals do not support the high valuations, given the fiscal mess we are in. Sooner or later, the bond bubble will burst. History has shown that a structurally weak economy combined with a fiscally irresponsible government propped up by accommodative central-bank lending always ends badly.

….The biggest beneficiaries of loose money, are our profligate elected officials who refuse to come to grips with budget deficits and an exemption-laden tax code. As long as Treasury can borrow cheaply to paper over the real problems, politicians can demagogue about overspending (GOP) or undertaxing (Democrats) while dodging their responsibility to work together to fix our problems.

via Watch out! Is the Fed pushing us into another bubble? – The Term Sheet: Fortune’s deals blog Term Sheet.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 23, 2012

Ex-Fed Kohn: 'Huge Risk' US Won't Take Steps On Debt, Deficit By Year End

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones) – There is a real danger U.S. authorities won’t take the necessary steps to fix the country’s debt and deficit problems between the elections and the end of this year, former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said Monday. “What’s required to put the fiscal deficit on a sustainable path are some difficult decisions having to do with entitlement spending and taxes in the United States,” Kohn said at the Europlace forum……. Kohn added the U.S. political system has become “soap opera-ized” with such a huge gulf between the country’s political parties there is a real risk debt and deficit will continue to grow past the end of this year.

via Ex-Fed Kohn: ‘Huge Risk’ US Won’t Take Steps On Debt, Deficit By Year End.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.