US & Canada Archives - Page 138 of 175

June 20, 2012

Fed Extends Operation Twist – WSJ.com

U.S. Federal Reserve officials extended through the end of the year a program meant to drive down long-term interest rates and signaled that they were “prepared to take further action” if needed amid heightened worry about the economy’s performance.

By continuing the program, known as “Operation Twist,” the Fed will buy $267 billion in long-term Treasury bonds and notes while it sells short-term Treasurys. The program had been set to expire this month.

via Fed Extends Operation Twist – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

June 19, 2012

FedEx Signals Freightload of Economic Woe – WSJ.com

Air-freight competitor UTi Worldwide, which recently reported results, sounded a note of caution about business in coming months. And April data on volumes from FedEx, the latest available, suggest a 9% drop in international cargo through its main hub in Memphis.

All this hints that fourth-quarter results for the period ended in May, due Tuesday, could be accompanied by cautious guidance for the next fiscal year…….A glance at sales and income from previous downturns shows how sensitive FedEx is to economic growth…. the kind of company that catches a cold when the world economy merely sneezes.

via AHEAD OF THE TAPE: – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 18, 2012

S&P 500 and Dow: correction is over

The S&P 500 closed Friday above resistance at 1340, confirming the bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (hat tip johnb). Expect retracement to test the new support level, followed by a rally to the March/April high of 1420. Wait for breakout on the Nasdaq 100 to confirm the Dow and S&P 500 signals.

S&P 500 Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average broke medium-term resistance at 12600/12700, indicating a rally to 13300. Expect retracement to first test the new support level. A bounce off the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure — and a likely rally — but the long-term bearish divergence remains and suggests strong resistance at 13300.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Nasdaq 100 has penetrated its descending trendline, signaling a bottom, but has yet to break resistance at 2580 — which would signal an advance to 2800 and confirm the Dow/S&P signals. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 18, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

The TSX 60 continues to test primary support at 640. Positive sentiment on US markets and from Greek election results is likely to fuel a rally. Breakout above 670 would confirm. Breach of the descending trendline would warn that a bottom is forming. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would complete a large bullish divergence, suggesting a primary up-trend. Respect of zero, however, would indicate continuation of the down-trend.

TSX 60 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 17, 2012

The future of natural gas – an interview with Raymond Learsy – On Line Opinion

Raymond Learsy: Let me show you this. It is from a study that MIT made ….. it goes into a great deal of detail that natural gas will result in demand reduction and displacement of coal-fired power by a gas-fired generation. And because of its more limited CO2 emissions further de-carbonization of the energy sector will be required and natural gas provides a cost effective bridge to such a low carbon future. In other words, natural gas, the way it’s structured, it’s enormous availability (we are finding more and more of it since these articles have been written), and it’s extraordinary low cost, present a very real danger to other forms of hydrocarbons…..At $2.50 an MMBtu, the amount of energy that is delivered by that quotient of natural gas, the price of oil would have to be around fifteen dollars a barrel.

via The future of natural gas – an interview with Raymond Learsy – On Line Opinion – 13/6/2012.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 16, 2012

Guess Who's Buying All the Bonds? (It's Not the Fed) – CNBC

The demand among average investors has swelled so much, in fact, that they bought more Treasurys in the first quarter than foreigners and the Fed combined.

Households picked up about $170 billion in the low-yielding government debt during the quarter, while foreigners increased their holdings by $110 billion.

via Guess Who’s Buying All the Bonds? (It’s Not the Fed) – US Business News – CNBC.

Comment:~ Jim Bianco points out: “If mom and pop were really the end buyers we would expect to see similarly booming numbers from the mutual fund industry. However….mutual fund purchases are a somewhat insignificant portion of domestic buying. Our guess is the domestic buyer is a leveraged carry trader, a mutual fund, a brokerage subsidiary or other group that does not have its own category so it gets ‘dumped’ into the default category of households.”

[Hat tip to Barry Ritholz]

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 13, 2012

Stock market is saying ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ – Mark Hulbert – MarketWatch

Mark Hulbert: Investors appear to be betting that the Fed and European central banks now have no choice but to stimulate their economies to a much greater extent than previously planned. Since much of that additional liquidity would find its way into equities, the stock market responded favorably.

To put it crudely: The news is so bad it’s good.

via Stock market is saying ‘Don’t fight the Fed’ – Mark Hulbert – MarketWatch.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 11, 2012

Fedex threatens support

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, with a break of the neckline at $88, and is now consolidating between $85 and $90. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $85 would confirm, suggesting that economic activity is slowing.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 85 – ( 95 – 85 ) = 75

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 11, 2012April 18, 2024

S&P 500 engulfing candle

Monday’s engulfing candle [R] on the S&P 500 warns of reversal to re-test support at 1270. Respect of the zero line (from below) by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would offer a target of 1200*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1270 – ( 1340 – 1270 ) = 1200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

June 8, 2012

S&P 500: It's all on the price chart

All indicators do is highlight information that is already visible on the price chart. That is why you need to be careful making decisions based solely on an indicator — because when you summarize (information) you sacrifice. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum displays a bearish divergence, with declining peaks over the last two years while the index has been rising. Careful study of the price chart reveals the same information: a healthy trend should display symmetrical, equally-weighted corrections and advances, you can tell momentum is slowing when advances are weaker and corrections stronger. A trend reversal would only be clear on the monthly chart if the S&P 500 crossed below support at 1100, but declining momentum should warn well in advance that it is forming a top. Recovery above 1400 is unlikely, but would signal that the trend has regained momentum — especially if the Fed introduces QE3.

S&P 500 Index

The Nasdaq 100 is also losing momentum, but slightly. Respect of support at 2400 would indicate a healthy up-trend. Likewise a trough above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2800 + ( 2800 – 2400 ) = 3200

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.