The TSX 60 is headed for the upper channel of its broadening wedge at 725 on the daily chart. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Retreat below 700 would warn of a swing to the lower wedge border.
* Target calculation: 700 + ( 700 – 640 ) = 760
The S&P 500 hesitated at its upper trend channel. Follow-through below 1460 would indicate a test of the lower channel and support at 1400. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of a correction.
* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ
The boom in American corporate profits, which has far outpaced the gains in the broader economy since the end of the last recession, is faltering.
Giants like FedEx and Intel, two bellwethers of the global economy, are warning of lower quarterly profits because of weakness in worldwide demand. Overseas companies are feeling the pinch, too. Burberry, the British luxury retailer which had seemed immune to a slowdown, is offering a similar warning.
via Earnings Outlook in U.S. Dims as Global Economy Slows – NYTimes.com.
Better Markets, a pro-financial reform Wall Street watchdog, estimates the total loss of American wealth since Sept. 15, 2008, when Lehman filed for bankruptcy, as $12.8 Trillion dollars — almost one year’s GDP. Better Markets president & CEO Dennis Kelleher calls for effective regulation of systemically important Wall Street firms to prevent a recurrence of the GFC.
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The Euro broke out above its trend channel and resistance at $1.2750 on the daily chart to signal a primary up-trend. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero confirms. Target for the advance is the 2012 high of $1.35*.
* Target calculation: 1.275 + ( 1.275 – 1.20 ) = 1.35
Pound Sterling is correcting to support around €1.22 against the Euro. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that a top is forming, while retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate a primary down-trend.
Canada’s Loonie is retracing to test the new support level after breaking above resistance against the greenback at $1.02. Breakout confirms the primary up-trend indicated by long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Target for the advance is $1.08*.
* Target calculation: 1.02 +( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 1.08
The Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.06 against the greenback. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero signals a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.06 would confirm. Expect resistance at $1.075/$1.08, but target for an advance would be $1.10*.
* Target calculation: 1.06 + ( 1.06 – 1.02 ) = 1.10
I commented a few days ago that apart from a bad case of Dutch Disease — where capital inflows and increased revenues from resources projects drive up the exchange rate and harm other export industries — the Australian dollar is at risk of developing “Swiss Disease” — where flight to a safe haven currency also drives up the exchange rate, destroying local export industries. Professor Warwick McKibbin has a point:
“When a portfolio shift into Australian currency is observed, the exchange rate change should be completely offset so the shock only affects the money markets rather than the real economy. If the shock cannot be observed precisely then the central bank should “lean against the wind”, that is intervene to slow down the extent of appreciation of the exchange rate.”
The RBA should be selling dollars to protect local export industries from rapid appreciation of the currency.
The Aussie Dollar is headed for resistance at ¥83.50 against the Japanese Yen. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout would signal an advance to ¥88*.
* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 80 ) = 88
By CHAD BRAY
NYSE Euronext NYX +2.23% agreed to pay a $5 million penalty to settle allegations by the Securities and Exchange Commission that technology issues at the New York Stock Exchange gave some customers an “improper head start” on trading information. The case marks the first time the SEC has ever brought a case that resulted in a monetary penalty against an exchange.
The $15 trillion U.S. national debt — how big is it really? And what can we do about the enormous federal budget deficit?
Expect stocks and commodities to rally – especially gold.
The S&P 500 followed through above 1440, confirming the primary advance to 1560*.
* Target calculation: 1420 + ( 1420 – 1280 ) = 1560
Spot gold broke through short-term resistance at 175, headed for a test of $1800/ounce*.
* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800
By KRISTINA PETERSON, JON HILSENRATH and MICHAEL S. DERBY:
After months of careful signaling, the Fed’s policy-making committee said it would buy $40 billion each month of agency mortgage-backed securities on an open-ended basis and said it could extend those purchases and buy additional assets if the job market doesn’t improve.
“If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement issued at the end of its two-day meeting.
via Fed to Buy More Bonds in Bid to Spur Economy – WSJ.com.
I guess I was wrong about the Fed holding off until after the election.
By YUVAL ROSENBERG, The Fiscal Times:
Median household incomes adjusted for inflation fell 1.5 percent to $50,054. That’s 8.1 percent lower than it had been in 2007, the year before the recession, and almost 9 percent lower than the peak income level reached in 1999. The last time median household income was lower was 1995 – meaning it’s been a lost decade and a half for Americans looking to get ahead.
The gross domestic product has gone from $7.4 trillion to $15.1 trillion in current-dollar terms over that time, suggesting that families have fallen behind even as the economy has expanded.
