US & Canada Archives - Page 118 of 171

November 1, 2012

Yield Is The Last Refuge Of Scoundrels – Seeking Alpha

By David Merkel:

What’s that I see? We’re at a 50-year low for yields on low investment-grade-rated bonds. Surely the economy should be booming. What, like the Great Depression, we are in a liquidity trap? Seems that way…….

Baa Corporate Bond Yield WBAA

via Yield Is The Last Refuge Of Scoundrels – Seeking Alpha.

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

November 1, 2012

The “Make Believe” NYSE Opening | The Big Picture

Good observation from Barry Ritholz about window dressing:

I was trying to figure out why the NYSE would open when not at full operating capacity……… Mutual funds are closing out their year on October 31st. I suspect they are desperate to get one last positive mark on the books before the new year begins.

via The “Make Believe” NYSE Opening | The Big Picture.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 31, 2012

Global QE

Observation made by Philip Lowe, RBA Deputy Governor:

Since mid 2008, four of the world’s major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England – have all expanded their balance sheets very significantly, and further increases have been announced in a couple of cases. In total, the assets of these four central banks have already increased by the equivalent of around $US5 trillion, or around 15 per cent of the combined GDP of the relevant economies. We have not seen this type of planned simultaneous very large expansion of central bank balance sheets before. So in that sense, it is very unusual, and its implications are not yet fully understood……

via RBA: Australia and the World.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 30, 2012

Hurricane Sandy [time lapse animation]

The power of nature.

[gigya src=’http://www.reuters.com/resources_v2/flash/video_embed.swf?videoId=238739605&edition=BETAUS’ type=’application/x-shockwave-flash’ allowfullscreen=’true’ allowScriptAccess=’always’ width=’460′ height=’259′ wmode=’transparent’]

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 30, 2012

Unsaving the U.S. economy | MacroScope

Gabriel Burin writes that the U.S. savings rate sank last month to its lowest since November.

“Households were only able to boost consumption in the third quarter by dipping into their savings,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, after the Commerce Department release. “Faced with the prospect of major tax hikes in the New Year, however, they will soon become more cautious”……..

via Unsaving the U.S. economy | MacroScope.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again | WSJ.com

Wall Street Journal opinion on the impact of QE3 on Asia:

If Asia stays true to form, the world is in for a bout of foreign-exchange interventions — some coordinated, some not — in a quest for stability. Yet these interventions will only encourage greater speculative flows, as some investors start betting on the next policy move. This would be America’s problem, too, given the growing number of American businesses trading with Asia that will grapple with a chaotic exchange-rate system…….

via Review & Outlook: Here Comes the Dollar Wave Again – WSJ.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Washington Inc.

This extract is from a 2011 opinion I wrote titled Has democracy failed us or have we failed it?

Elections are an expensive business and no candidate is likely to achieve re-election without financial backers, making them especially vulnerable to outside influence. The finance industry alone made $63 million in campaign contributions to Federal Candidates during the 2010 electoral cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That will buy you a lot of influence on the Hill, but is merely the tip of the iceberg. Interest groups spent $3.5 billion in that year on lobbying Congress and federal agencies ($473 million from the finance sector). While that money does not flow directly to candidates it acts as an enticing career path/retirement plan for both Representatives and senior staffers.

The revolving door between Capitol Hill and the big lobbying firms parachutes former elected officials and staffers into jobs as lobbyists, consultants and strategists — while infiltrating their best and brightest into positions within government; a constant exchange of power, influence and money. More than 75 percent of the 363 former senators or representatives end up employed by lobbying firms, either as lobbyists or advisors.

Revolving doors continue to plague Washington and financial market regulators. Enforcing lengthy “restraint of trade” periods between the two roles would restrict this. Preventing politicians from joining lobbying firms for two to three years — and financial regulators from joining Wall Street for a similar period — would reduce the risk of “captive regulators”.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

Canada: TSX Composite

The TSX Composite Index is consolidating between 12100 and 12800. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above 12500 would strengthen the signal, while follow-through above 12800 would confirm.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12750 + ( 12750 – 11200 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

October 29, 2012

US: Signs a top is forming?

The S&P 500 continues to test support at 1400. Bearish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns that a top may be forming. Breach of support would strengthen the signal. The market is currently enjoying the “honeymoon” period in the lead up to the election. Reality is likely to bite after the results are in, as the government deals with some tough choices — like how to create jobs while reducing the budget deficit.

S&P 500 Index
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly testing support at 13000 on the weekly chart. Breach of support — and the primary trendline — would warn that a top is forming. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero would indicate rising selling pressure, while a trough above the line would suggest another primary advance. Recovery above 13650 is unlikely at present but would confirm an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 13000 + ( 13000 – 12000 ) = 14000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.