Time to clean up the Banks

Gabriele Steinhauser at WSJ writes:

A group of key crisis managers believes cleaning up weak banks is the only way to get Europe’s economy to grow again, after superlow interest rates and large-scale liquidity injections from the ECB have failed to produce the desired results. These officials see continued doubts over the health of many lenders as the main reason banks are reluctant to lend to companies, especially in the continent’s weaker countries.

“We’ve been stuck in this rubbish for five years, because we’ve been doing everything to prevent the banks from being recapitalized properly and the stress tests from being stringent enough,” said a senior EU official. “If we don’t do this, we will stay in this trap until 2020.”

The time has come to clear up the mess from the GFC and strengthen bank balance sheets — not only in Europe — so that a similar financial crisis is unlikely to ever happen again. Moves are also afoot in the US where Senators Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and David Vitter (R-La.) are working on a bipartisan bill to end too-big-to-fail banks. The bill does not attempt to break up big banks but focuses on improving bank capital ratios. Risk-weighted capital ratios as suggested by Basel III disguise banks’ true leverage and encourage risk-taking. Australian banks are particularly exposed to low risk-weighting of residential mortgages. Eliminating risk-weighting would force banks to strengthen their underlying capital base and discourage risk concentration in low risk-weighted areas.

The biggest obstacle to change, however, is the banks who benefit from an implicit taxpayer-funded guarantee in the event of failure. Being able to rely on a bailout enables them them to take bigger bets than their balance sheets would otherwise allow. Columbia University’s Charles Calomiris points out that the banks are able to get away with this because they are supported by populist democratic governments who trade off banking instability in return for political (and financial) support.

Read more at New Drive for Tougher Testing of European Banks – WSJ.com.

Why Canada Can Avoid Banking Crises and U.S. Can’t | WSJ

Victoria McGrane at WSJ reports on a paper by Columbia University’s Charles Calomiris, presented at the Atlanta Fed’s 2013 Financial Markets Conference.

In populist democracies, such as the United States, the regulation of banking is used as a political tool to favor some parties over others. It is not that the dominant political coalition in charge of banking policy desires instability, per se, but rather, that it is willing to tolerate instability as the price for obtaining the benefits that it extracts from controlling banking regulation………..

Smart economists with their regulatory ideas are sort of dead on arrival. Political coalitions will decide — not whether you’ve got the right VAR model — [but] whether a banking system is going to be set up with rules that will lead it to be stable and have abundant credit or not.

Charles Calomiris has absolutely nailed it: Populist democracies are prone to financial instability. If you want a stable financial system, you first need to overhaul the political system.

Read more at Why Canada Can Avoid Banking Crises and U.S. Can’t – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Afghanistan: What Went Wrong? | Colonel Gian Gentile

“History…. suggests that whatever we decide to do, let’s decide to do it on the premise of: there are limits to what our power can accomplish in the world — especially military power — and sometimes there may be other alternatives to using military power to shape a world that we want to see……”

To paraphrase Abraham Maslow: If your favorite tool is a hammer, every problem starts to resemble a nail.

The views expressed by Colonel Gentile here do not necessarily represent those of the United States government or the Department of Defense.

This interview was recorded shortly after the event, “The War in Afghanistan: What Went Wrong?” at the Cato Institute April 5, 2013.
http://www.cato.org/events/war-afghan.

 

S&P 500 tests resistance

The S&P 500 is headed for resistance at 1575, after repeated tests of support at 1540. Breakout above 1575 would test 1600*, but reversal below 1540 remains as likely and would warn of a correction. Although ripe for a correction, 13-week Twiggs Momentum troughs above zero continue to reflect a strong primary up-trend.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1475 + ( 1475 – 1350 ) = 1600

S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yields

The yield on 10-year Treasury Notes retreated below 2.00%. Falling bond yields indicate the expected time horizon for low short-term interest rates is lengthening — a negative reflection on the economy.

The first line of support for $TNX is 1.70%; breach would signal another attempt at 1.40%. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicates that a base is forming and primary support is unlikely to be broken.
Nasdaq 100 Index

The S&P 500 retreated from its 2007 high at 1575.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

Bearish divergence  on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of mild selling pressure. Breach of support at 1530 — and the rising trendline — would warn of a correction.
S&P 500 Index
The Russell 2000 Index is stronger, having broken clear of its 2007 high at 860. A correction that respects the new support level (860) would confirm a strong primary up-trend.
VIX Index

While there are structural flaws in the US economy, QE from the Fed has forced investors to increase risk in search of yield. The current advance shows no signs of ending.

North Korea tests the limits of a MAD world | Business Spectator

Gideon Rachman points out in Financial Times that the doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD), employed by the West in nuclear confrontations, assumes a rational adversary:

In many respects, North Korea has replicated some of the very worst features of Maoist China: the isolation from the outside world, the labour camps, the cult of personality and the willingness to tolerate mass starvation at home. The latter is particularly chilling, when one remembers that nuclear deterrence is meant to rely on an unwillingness to accept the death of millions of your compatriots.

Read more at North Korea tests the limits of a MAD world | Business Spectator.

Mitch McConnell Prepares To Give Barack Obama The Political Shellacking Of A Lifetime – Forbes

Ralph Benko shares an insight on US healthcare from columnist Warren Brookes on Forbes:

Brookes shared an indelible insight. He observed that it was possible to provide good health care at an affordable cost through the free market, rationing it by price. And it was possible to provide good health care at an affordable cost by the government through state agencies, rationing it by thoughtful policy. And that America had managed to create a monstrous hybrid of the two, the worst possible system: lousy care at unaffordable prices.

Read more at Mitch McConnell Prepares To Give Barack Obama The Political Shellacking Of A Lifetime – Forbes.

When You Weren’t Looking, Democrat Bank Stooges Launch Bills to Permit Bailouts, Deregulate Derivatives « naked capitalism

Yves Smith reports on attempts to undermine the Volcker Rule and why the rule is so important:

In the US, depositors have actually been put in a worse position than Cyprus deposit-holders, at least if they are at the big banks that play in the derivatives casino. The regulators have turned a blind eye as banks use their depositaries to fund derivatives exposures. And as bad as that is, the depositors, unlike their Cypriot confreres, aren’t even senior creditors. Remember Lehman? When the investment bank failed, unsecured creditors (and remember, depositors are unsecured creditors) got eight cents on the dollar. One big reason was that derivatives counterparties require collateral for any exposures, meaning they are secured creditors. The 2005 bankruptcy reforms made derivatives counterparties senior to unsecured lenders.

Read more at When You Weren’t Looking, Democrat Bank Stooges Launch Bills to Permit Bailouts, Deregulate Derivatives « naked capitalism.

Forex: Euro correction while Aussie retraces

The euro is headed for a test of primary support at $1.26 on the monthly chart. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal a down-swing to $1.20.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.20 ) = 1.50

Pound sterling is testing the new medium-term resistance level at $1.53 against the dollar. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, with a target of $1.43*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below its 2011 lows, strengthens the signal.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.63 – 1.53 ) = 1.43

The Aussie Dollar retraced this week to test short-term support at $1.04, but the up-trend is intact and we should expect a test of resistance at $1.06. Failure of support at $1.03 is unlikely, but would warn that primary support at $1.015 is again under threat. Narrow fluctuation of 63-day Twiggs Momentum around zero suggests a ranging market.

Aussie Dollar/USD

Canada’s Loonie rallied off medium-term support at $0.97 against the greenback. Expect some resistance at $0.99, but the CAD is just as likely to test the descending trendline at parity. The primary trend remains down and a test of primary support at $0.96 remains on the cards in the next quarter.
Aussie Dollar/USD

The US dollar is encountering increased resistance as it approaches ¥100 against the Japanese Yen. The 30-year down-trend is over. The advance is extended and a correction likely, but breakout above ¥100 would test the 2007 high above ¥120*.
Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 100 – ( 100 – 80 ) = 120

S&P 500: Any gas left in the tank?

The S&P 500 managed to close at a new high, with most fund managers reporting good results for the quarter, but does this signal a new bull market or a last-gasp effort to lock in performance bonuses before the market subsides into a correction?

While markets may be rising, there is strong risk aversion.

This is definitely not a classic bull market.

One also needs to be wary of September and March quarter-ends. They often represent significant turning points, with new highs (red arrows) and new lows (green arrows) frequently proving unsustainable.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1530 + ( 1530 – 1485 ) = 1575

While there is no sign of divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, which would indicate unusual selling pressure, it is important to remain vigilant over the next quarter rather than blindly follow the herd. Bearish (TMF) divergence or reversal of the S&P 500 below 1500 would warn of a correction.