US & Canada Archives - Page 112 of 173

January 25, 2013

S&P 500 threatens breakout

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of the 2000/2007 highs at 1550/1565. Expect resistance but troughs above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate long-term buying pressure. Breakout is likely and would signal an advance to 1750*. Breach of the rising trendline would test of support at the long-term trendline — around 1400.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1550 + ( 1550 – 1350 ) = 1750

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

January 25, 2013

Scam complete: US government takes a page from Diocletian’s book | Business Insider

Simon Black writes:

As with any good scam, the government must maintain public confidence. The moment someone says ‘the Emperor has no clothes,’ that shallow, fragile confidence will come crashing down and expose the scam. Dissent must be vigorously and swiftly pursued.

So when S&P finally downgraded the US one notch in August 2011, the SEC and Justice Department announced that S&P was under investigation, just two weeks later.

Egan-Jones, a smaller rating agency, has been even more aggressive, downgrading the US credit rating three times in 18 months. And while the federal government may not have imposed Diocletian’s death penalty, they are just as willing to squash dissent.

In a country that churns out thousands of pages of new regulations each week, it’s easy to find a reason to go after someone. As you read this letter, in fact, you are probably in violation of at least a dozen regulatory offenses.

In the case of Egan-Jones, the SEC brought administrative action against the agency within two weeks of their second downgrade. And a few days ago, the case was settled.

I’m sure you have already guessed the ending: Egan-Jones is banned from for the next 18 months from rating US government debt. They’ve effectively been silenced from telling the truth…..

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 25, 2013

Canada: TSX breakout

The TSX Composite broke through 12800, confirming the primary up-trend signaled earlier by a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero and 12500 breakout. Expect an advance to the 2011 high of 14300*.

TSX Composite Index

* Target calculation: 12800 + ( 12800 – 11300 ) = 14300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 24, 2013

Euro up-trend

The Euro is headed for a test of resistance at $1.35 on the monthly chart. Breakout would confirm the primary up-trend. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum (above zero) strengthens the signal. Reversal below $1.30 and the rising trendline, however, would indicate another test of primary support at $1.20.

Euro/USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 17, 2013

Euro advances

The Euro is advancing against the weakening dollar. Target for the advance is the long-term declining trendline on the monthly chart — around $1.40. A primary up-trend is signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero.

Euro/USD

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 17, 2013

Stocks: The year ahead

A quick recap of the quarterly chart overview from December 2012:

The S&P 500 is headed for a test of its 2000/2007 high at 1550. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum and a lackluster economy suggest that resistance is unlikely to be broken. Breach of the rising trendline would indicate a test of support at 1100.

S&P 500 Index

Canada’s TSX Composite Index is gaining momentum. Follow-through above 13000 would indicate another test of 15000.

Apple

Germany’s DAX threatens a breakout above 8000. Follow-through above 8200 would confirm a strong primary advance.

DAX Index

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6000, suggesting an advance to 7000.

FTSE 100 Index

India’s Sensex is testing resistance at 21000. Rising momentum indicates breakout is likely, heralding a fresh primary advance.

BSE Sensex Index

Singapore’s Straits Times Index lags behind, but breakout above 3300 is likely and would indicate an advance to 3900.

Apple

The Shanghai Composite is headed for a re-test of long-term support at 1800/1750. Rising momentum suggests that a bottom will form at this level. Recovery above 2500 and/or the declining trendline would strengthen the signal.

Shanghai Composite Index

The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 5000, supported by rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum. Breakout would signal an advance to 6000, but weakness in China or the US may delay this for some time.

ASX 200 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 6, 2013

Why governments need asset bubbles | The Economist [video]

Zanny Minton-Beddoes, economics editor of The Economist, explains why governments need asset bubbles to mask growing inequality between rich and poor.

http://youtu.be/JkybYT_EYNc

Hat tip to Gregor Samsa

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 4, 2013

Currency manipulation cost US economy up to 5 million jobs

Extract from a research brief by by C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon, at Peterson Institute for International Economics, published December 2012:

More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup — mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets — keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs as a result of this foreign currency manipulation.

Hat tip to Simon Kennedy at Bloomberg.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 2, 2013

Don't be fooled: The Republicans are winning | Business Insider

Henry Blodget:

Yesterday, the American government voted to extend almost all of the Bush Tax Cuts permanently. Not temporarily, as a stimulus measure. Permanently.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

January 2, 2013

Rogoff: The Unstarvable Beast | Business Insider

Kenneth Rogoff, professor of economics at Harvard University, writes:

As US President in the 1980’s, the conservative icon Ronald Reagan described his approach to fiscal policy as “starve the beast”: cutting taxes will eventually force people to accept less government spending. In many ways, his approach was a great success. But government spending has continued to grow, because voters still want the services that government provides. Today, it is clear that reining in government also means finding ways to shape incentives so that innovation in government keeps pace with innovation in other service sectors….

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.