Aussie weaker

The Aussie Dollar continues to consolidate between $1.03 and $1.06 against the greenback. Failure of support at $1.03 would test parity, while breakout above $1.06 would target resistance at $1.10. In the long term, declining commodity prices are likely to drag the Aussie lower — unless the Fed starts printing money again.

Australian Dollar AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.03 – ( 1.06 – 1.03 ) = 1.00

The Aussie Dollar is testing the upper border of the declining trend channel against its Kiwi counterpart. Reversal below short-term support at $1.255 would indicate respect of the upper channel and a down-swing to around $1.20*. Breakout above $1.28 is unlikely but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.

New Zealand Dollar NZDUSD

* Target calculation: 1.24 – ( 1.28 – 1.24 ) = 1.20

Loonie band

The Candian Loonie is consolidating in a narrow band above parity, warning of selling pressure. Earlier penetration of the long-term rising trendline indicates the up-trend has weakened. Breach of support would confirm a primary down-trend, with an initial target of $0.94 against the greenback.

Canada Loonie CADUSD

* Target calculation: 1.00 – ( 1.06 – 1.00 ) = 0.94

NZ bucks trend

New Zealand is one of the few markets that is bucking the trend — its agriculture-based economy fairly insulated from the global down-turn. ENZL, the MSCI New Zealand ETF, recovered above its former primary support level at 31.50 after strong bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. While technically still a bear market, retracement that respects the new support level of 31.50 would confirm a test of 34.

iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Market Index Fund (ENZL)

It’s a bear market

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Tuesday on fairly light volume. Expect resistance at 11500. This is a bear market, with reactions to good news likely to be short — and declines from bad news severe. Target for the next decline is 10000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

NZ50 bullish divergence

Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow on the NZ50 Index signals buying support. Breakout above 3300 is possible, but the primary down-trend is unlikely to change, given the state of global markets.

NZ50 Index

* Target calculation: 3100 – ( 3300 – 3100 ) = 2900

Shanghai Composite confirms down-trend

The Shanghai Composite Index respected resistance at 2650, confirming the primary down-trend. Expect a test of 2350. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero would warn of rising selling pressure. In the long term, failure of support at 2350 would offer a target of 1600*.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2400 – ( 3200 – 2400 ) = 1600

Monday’s long tail on the Hang Seng Index and higher volume indicate short-term support at 19000. Expect a rally to test the recent high at 20500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 19000 – ( 22000 – 19000 ) = 16000

India Singapore short-term support

The Sensex rallied Monday but on light volume. The sharp fall on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong medium-term selling pressure and support at 16000 is not expected to hold.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 16500 – ( 17500 – 16500 ) = 15500

Monday’s long tail on the Straits Times Index also indicates short-term buying support. The sharp fall on 21-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend and support at 2700 is expected to fail.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2800 – ( 3000 – 2800 ) = 2600

Portugal Braces for Austerity Battle – WSJ.com

Portugal has little choice but to take tough steps. The country sought international help in April after failing to convince investors it was doing enough to shore up its shaky finances. In exchange for a €78 billion, three-year loan, Lisbon promised the European Union and the International Monetary Fund that it would slash its deficit and make structural changes to spur growth in key sectors.

The problem is these efforts are expected to prolong the economic slump at least two years and drive up unemployment, already at 12%.

via Portugal Braces for Austerity Battle – WSJ.com.