Category: Countries & Regions

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Nasdaq threatens breakout

The Dow is testing medium-term support at 11600. Failure would mean another test of primary support at 10600, while respect of support (with breakout above 12300) would confirm the primary advance to 12800*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to indicate buying pressure, favoring an advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11600 + ( 11600 – 10400 ) = 12800

The S&P 500 is also testing medium-term support, this time at 1220. Respect would signal an advance to the 2011 high, while failure would re-test 1100. In the long-term, breach of 1100 would offer a target of 900* and breakout above 1350 would signal an advance to 1600.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

Bullish divergence on the Nasdaq 100 indicates strong buying pressure and a likely reversal. Breakout above 2440 would signal an advance to 2800*. Reversal below 2300 is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 2000.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2000 ) = 2800

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ASX value trap – macrobusiness.com.au

Merrill Lynch reckons growth forecasts for next financial year have now dropped to below 10%, down from 19% last May. That is a pretty sharp fall, suggesting that, amongst other things, the deleveraging of indebted Australian households is having a deep impact. Merrill also notes that resources stocks are yet to be re-rated for the impact of lower commodity prices.

via ASX value trap – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

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Greek Parties Agree to Form Unity Government – WSJ.com

ATHENS—Greece’s major political parties on Sunday agreed to form a national unity government that will lead the country to new elections after putting in place a debt-slashing deal, in the hope of averting financial catastrophe for the country and winning back the trust of its European partners. The deal was made possible after Prime Minister George Papandreou agreed to step down to make way for a new prime minister under a commonly accepted government.

via Greek Parties Agree to Form Unity Government – WSJ.com.

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IMF Survey: Iceland’s Unorthodox Policies Suggest Alternative Way Out of Crisis

As policymakers continue to grapple with the problems facing the crisis-hit countries in the euro area and the clouded outlook for the global economy, attention has turned to Iceland, which three years ago saw its entire banking system crumble in just a few days.

Private creditors ended up shouldering most of the losses relating to the failed banks, and today Iceland is experiencing a moderate recovery. Unemployment is declining, and the government was able to return to the capital markets earlier this year.

“What was seen as a disaster for Iceland three years ago is increasingly being seen as good fortune with the passing of time. Icelanders may have lost their financial system but instead they were spared the burden of nationalizing private debt,” said Árni Páll Árnason, Minister of the Economy.

via IMF Survey: Iceland’s Unorthodox Policies Suggest Alternative Way Out of Crisis.

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S&P 500 2008 weekly comparison

The similarity between the current weekly chart and 2008 continues.

S&P 500 Index Weekly 2008

The index is now retracing to test support at 1220, in a similar fashion to support at 1380 in 2008. Failure of support would be a strong bear signal, but confirmation would only come if primary support at 1100 is broken.

S&P 500 Index Weekly

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

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The World from Berlin: ‘The Common Currency Endgame Has Begun’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International

Conservative daily Die Welt writes:

“At the end of the eventful day, the redemptive message came: Papandreou would withdraw his referendum because conservative Greek opposition leader Antonis Samaras declared he was ready to vote for the aid package with the government and take part in an interim national unity government……”

“But the reasons behind this welcome development did not lie in Athens, but in Cannes. There, Merkel and Sarkozy bet the house when they took the Greek prime minister to task. They didn’t just say that payments to Greece would stop until the Greeks made it clear they would hold up their end of the bargain. They also insisted that the Greek referendum would essentially be a vote on Greece’s membership in the euro zone — the really big question. The politicians in Athens decided they’d rather not take the risk.”

via The World from Berlin: ‘The Common Currency Endgame Has Begun’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – News – International.

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Papademos Favored to Lead Greek Transition – WSJ.com

A former vice president of the European Central Bank has emerged as an early favorite to lead what could become a new Greek caretaker government of technical experts that would finalize aid talks and stabilize the country’s fractured politics. The interim government would oversee the transition until possible new elections next year.

Officials from the country’s two leading political parties said Lucas Papademos keeps coming up as political insiders consider candidates for a prime minister of a transitional national unity government, if Prime Minister George Papandreou resigns, a possibility that is now widely expected.

via Papademos Favored to Lead Greek Transition – WSJ.com.

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Worried Eyes on Greece Ahead of Confidence – NYTimes.com

[Greek Prime Minister] Mr. Papandreou was under intense pressure from his own Socialist party and the center-right opposition to step aside if his government survived the confidence vote [early Saturday], to pave the way for a unity government or early elections.

…….. New Democracy [the opposition] has refused to consider talks on a transitional government unless Mr. Papandreou resigns.

via Worried Eyes on Greece Ahead of Confidence – NYTimes.com.

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Report Shows Gain in Jobs but Growth Still Sluggish – NYTimes.com

The United States economy created a modest number of jobs in October, the Labor Department reported Friday. Employers added 80,000 payroll positions on net, slightly less than what economists had expected. That compares to 158,000 jobs in September, a month when the figure was helped by the return of 45,000 Verizon workers who had been on strike………

The unemployment rate was 9 percent in October, slightly lower than September’s 9.1 percent but little changed from where it has been for the last seven months.

via Report Shows Gain in Jobs but Growth Still Sluggish – NYTimes.com.

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